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Ohio shifting toward McCain?

I just ran across this post in the American Spectator blog in which Robert Stacy McCain reports that Rasmussen's newest poll puts McCain up by as much as 10 points in Ohio. I'm with Robert on this one: holy kamoley!

This is just one poll of course, but Rasmussen is a very accurate pollster. In fact, he was the most accurate pollster in the 2004 general election, predicting Bush would defeat Kerry 51% - 47%. Final numbers ended up Bush ended up beating Kerry 51% - 48%.

Even though I'm not doing too much of a happy dance right now, I am going to start looking to see if this is in fact a trend that other respectable pollsters begin to pick up.

Now, if this poll is in fact accurate, perhaps one reason for this could be Americans' views on domestic drilling. According to Rasmussen's internals, a vast majority of Americans want more domestic drilling to help reduce our dependence on foreign oil, which has been an issue McCain has been arguing for in his most recent campaign ads:

Sixty-four percent (64%) support offshore oil drilling while 22% are opposed. These figures are close to the national average. Fifty-four percent (54%) say reducing the price of gas and oil is more important than protecting the environment. Just 28% disagree and say protecting the environment is more important.

Robert Stacy McCain wonders if it is because of the Mark Dann scandal, which has put a bit of the hurt on Ohio Dems lately.


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Comments (12)

Being in Ohio (around Dayto... (Below threshold)
Bob:

Being in Ohio (around Dayton) I think it is a combination of things. First, GM Moraine Assembly is closing because it is a truck plant and with the price of gas GM can't sell the mid-size SUVs it makes. So when the Dems/Obama refuse the idea of opening up drilling in ANWR and off-shore, it doesn't play real well. Second, compliments of Mark Dann (ex AG, resigned in disgrace) the Republicans and the Dems are back to even playing ground. Taft was an idiot, but his offense was not reporting golf outings. Dann's was fooling around with a junior member of his staff and renting an apartment with state funds as a "love nest". That just doesn't play well when the Dems where playing ethics card during the last election.

My suspicion is that the bloom is off Obama in the state, and "change" isn't playing well. We have been "changed" enough during the past election and got a sex scandal.

The "change" now offers more misery to the Ohio economy. I think both white collar and blue collar workers are realizing that Obama doesn't offer them much economically.

Hey, why doesn't Rasmussen ... (Below threshold)
hyperbolist:

Hey, why doesn't Rasmussen conduct a poll where they ask Americans if they would support opening up ANWR and the coast for drilling if the net result is to reduce the price of gasoline by three cents per gallon? You know, like an honest poll, with context and information for people who don't get it because they watch sh*tty f*ck*ng cable and network news instead of learning things about the issues that will end up deciding the fate of their country.

And where will they get tho... (Below threshold)

And where will they get those bits of info, Hyperbolist? From the media? The same folks who've fed you the 3 cents a gallon sound bite?

Have you noticed that since Bush announced he was opening things up for drilling, oil's plummeted over $20 a barrel? We're not even DRILLING - just announcing we're trying to open things up (because I'm sure Pelosi and Co will scream and stop it as long as they can) and the price is dropping.

Oh, you might find this interesting - apparently the Bakken oil formation in North Dakota will be adding 200,000 barrels a day to the total world supply by the end of '08.

Apparently it's even making Canadians happy...

We need developement of alternatives - but we also need to keep the world economy going so there's money TO develop things. Oil keeps things moving in more ways than one...

And where will they get ... (Below threshold)
Brian:

And where will they get those bits of info, Hyperbolist? From the media? The same folks who've fed you the 3 cents a gallon sound bite?

You're right. It would actually be around 2 cents a gallon.

Oh, and those "bits of info" come directly from Bush's Dept. of Energy.

Additional oil production resulting from the opening of ANWR would be only a small portion of total world oil production, and would likely be offset in part by somewhat lower production outside the United States. The opening of ANWR is projected to have its largest oil price reduction impacts as follows: a reduction in low-sulfur, light crude oil prices of $0.41 per barrel (2006 dollars) in 2026 for the low oil resource case, $0.75 per barrel in 2025 for the mean oil resource case, and $1.44 per barrel in 2027 for the high oil resource case, relative to the reference case.

Betcha didn't expect that one, eh?

Have you noticed that since Bush announced he was opening things up for drilling, oil's plummeted over $20 a barrel?

Oooh, so OPEC is so scared that 17 years from now oil prices will plummet $.75 that they slashed the price $20 today to keep that from happening? Thanks for sharing your little economic wisdom.

It's a global economy and w... (Below threshold)
ken:

It's a global economy and we will continue to have more and more demand given the growth rates of India and China. This supply has to come from somewhere and as long as we can contribute to it the better. If the US actively opens up it's resources, we can get closer to energy independence... and isn't that what we all want?

I would have to agree with ... (Below threshold)
OhioVoter:

I would have to agree with Bob with this one. I am farther north (between Columbus and Cleveland) and am hearing some of the same issues.

In 2006, the Dems portrayed the inept and bumbling antics of Taft as if it was the second coming of Watergate. They then brought in an Attorney General who not only did what Bob indicated, but assisted in covering up even worse sexual harrassment on the part of a subordinate and who's administration in the AG's office is being investigated for a number of other issues including possible raketeering.

The Democratic Secretary of State has made much of her desire to alleged voting problems of 2004 (while ignoring some documented subsequent ones), but has run into the same problems that her predecessor did. The local board of elections where the alleged problems occurred are the ones who spend the most time suing her to stop her efforts to change things.

I will give credit to our Democratice governor though - although being a better governor than Taft is not that difficult. Problem is that he has been mentioned as a VP candidate for nearly a year of his 2 years in office. I suspect that some are dragging their feet a bit on some of his initiatives until there is a clear indication if he is staying or going.

Does he have enough pull to deliver Ohio to the Democrats if he is on the ticket? I think it would probably help, but I don't know if it would be enough.

I might also point out thos... (Below threshold)

I might also point out those are forecasts, Brian - not reality, and based on oil prices in 2006.

The question I've got in that case - if the announcement of drilling WASN'T a trigger for the oil price drop - what was? Pelosi's hollow threat against speculators?

Whoever wins Ohio will win ... (Below threshold)

Whoever wins Ohio will win the election. Period.

"Final numbers ended up Bus... (Below threshold)
Herman:

"Final numbers ended up Bush ended up [sic] beating Kerry 51% - 48%." -- Kim Priestap

These numbers are the after-Diebold results, and as such, are of little use in ascertaining the Rasmussen-poll accuracy.

And if the Diebold numbers ... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

And if the Diebold numbers were the OTHER way, you'd be praising them for their accurate vote recording!

Sheesh. Democrats are the WORST losers. First it was Florida, with hanging chads and dimples and all sorts of machinations such as mass disqalifications of military absentee ballots - and you STILL lost, and there's STILL whining about it even now.

So we had to go DIGITAL! THAT would fix things - but now when Democrats LOSE and Diebold machines are anywhere NEAR the contested election it's because the machines are rigged! (Apparently, however, not when they WIN.)

So - the polls will tell in November. Until then, they're for entertainment purposes only!

Conspiracy theories aside, ... (Below threshold)
hyperbolist:

Conspiracy theories aside, JL, as a citizen of a lively democracy that usually has pretty close elections, you should be concerned that vote tallying machines can be hacked into so quickly and easily.

I might also point out t... (Below threshold)
Brian:

I might also point out those are forecasts, Brian - not reality

Ah, you're right! Why are we wasting our time with well-researched forecasts when it's so much easier to just make shit up instead?

and based on oil prices in 2006.

OK, so then double the impact. Gas would drop $.04 instead of $.02. Makes all the difference, eh?

The question I've got in that case - if the announcement of drilling WASN'T a trigger for the oil price drop - what was?

"Presidential spokeswoman Dana Perino said the price drop also could reflect diminished demand."

But more likely that Congress is on the verge of passing legislation to crack down on oil speculation. (That is, if the Republicans would stop obstructing it by trying to hang their special interest amendments on the bill.)




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