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The 2nd Quarter Economic Numbers Undercut Democrats' Talking Points on the Economy

The Democrats have been talking about how awful the economy is, but the revised 2nd quarter economic numbers released today show the economy grew 3.3% from April - June. An inconvenient truth for the Democrats in Denver who have been celebrating a soft economy that they believed worked to their benefit. From the AP:

The economy shifted to a higher gear in the spring, growing at its fastest pace in nearly a year as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that gross domestic product, or GDP, increased at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate.

Factual economic numbers aside, there will always be some Americans who will struggle no matter how strong the economy and how low the unemployment rate, so we can count on the Democrats to point the spot light on these sorry folk only as long as a Republican is in the White House. However, when a Democrat wins the presidency someday, even if it's not for another generation, you'll be guaranteed that those same struggling Americans will cease to exist, at least as far as our Democrat friends go.

Update: Well isn't this interesting. The very first paragraph I quoted from the linked AP article doesn't exist anymore. In its place are paragraphs with a much more pessimistic tone that fall in line with the Democrats' talking points:

The economy pulled out of a dangerous rough patch in the spring, thanks largely to strong exports, but the rebound isn't expected to last. Economic slowdowns overseas could make exports tail off just as Americans are hunkering down after the bracing impact of rebate checks wanes, plunging the country into another rut later this year.

"There will be heavy sledding for the U.S. economy during the next couple of quarters," predicted Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group.

And this is now the third paragraph, which was the second paragraph in the first version. Not a big difference. The same information but with a phrase moved around.

Gross domestic product, or GDP, grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the April-June quarter, its fastest pace in nearly a year, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate.

So let's review. About 2 1/2 hours ago, I pointed out the AP's original article and noted how this good economic news undermines the Dem's convention message about the economy. Then, shazzam, the article is updated so it is more in line with the Democrats' convention message that the economy sucks and it's Bush and McCain's fault. What else can we expect from the Left's willing accomplices in the mainstream media? Certainly not the truth.


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Comments (26)

A slight drop in oil prices... (Below threshold)

A slight drop in oil prices have helped to buoy the economy slightly recently, however new speculation over possible storm damage to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as well as sky high Winter heating prices very likely will slow the economy once again until the recent problems with a stable source of oil and lower prices show more stability.

My main large home costs me about $700 a month in oil to heat during the Winter compared to zero during the Summer for example. For many Americans such high heating prices will be a real shocker as even natural gas and electricity rates are both higher as well.

These high energy prices and closely related economic slowdown issues cannot be ignored by either political party, and both parties need to offer some serious answers.

as foreign buyers snappe... (Below threshold)
Clay:

as foreign buyers snapped up U.S. exports and tax rebates spurred shoppers at home.

I disagree with the author of this piece, in that I believe that the tax rebates did jack to fuel the economy. However, the exchange rate has had positive unintended consequences. For those of us who have drug their feet in overseas manufacturing, we have suddenly found ourselves in a low-cost region - the United States. My company's competition is in Europe, so we have seen 4 consecutive quarters of unprecedented sales.

The One is revising tonights speech at this moment.

These high energy prices and closely related economic slowdown issues cannot be ignored by either political party, and both parties need to offer some serious answers.

The Republicans have offered answers in the form of "Drill now". The Democrats only answer has been "Can we drill your brains?".

Paul already looking forwar... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

Paul already looking forward to bad times. A liberal cannot enjoy good news. Constantly pessimistic.

Nancy Polosi in 2006 said she will do something about the high price of gas. She did. She let it double.

GW Bush submitted an energy plan a few years ago and it was ignored.

This current crisis with energy and the subsequent fall out into other areas is in the laps of the dems. ww

Paul,Do you need a l... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

Paul,
Do you need a large main home that costs that much to mainatin?

"A slight drop in oil pr... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

"A slight drop in oil prices have helped to buoy the economy slightly recently,.."

What does that have to do with 2nd quarter performance, which is what this post is about?

"..however new speculation over possible storm damage to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico as well as sky high Winter heating prices very likely will slow the economy once again until the recent problems with a stable source of oil and lower prices show more stability."

Oh, well it's a lock, then.
Maybe kinda in the possible future there's sorta a chance that the economy might, if certain unknown things happen and all the planets line up and....

Whew!! Thank God for that b... (Below threshold)
Rich:

Whew!! Thank God for that bad weather Paul,huh?

$700 a month? Where do you live and what size house do you have? Does it have a roof?

I lived in Alaska and even when the gas prices went up I never saw that large a bill any month in my house. I do not think it got close to $200 dollars. I even had gas fireplaces,stove,hotwater heater,and washer/dryer.


My main large home costs... (Below threshold)
Clay:

My main large home costs me about $700 a month in oil to heat

Gotta have those nice things, the environment be damned, right? Atta boy! Oh, wait a minute. aren't you the one that prattles on and on about the virtues of riding a scooter?

I think you have a few questions of your own to answer, bub.

3.3% from April - Jun... (Below threshold)

3.3% from April - June.

Sounds like Phil Gram was right. Too bad McCain threw him overboard so fast, but nonetheless, this is more terrible news during a bad week for Democrats.

They must be swooning over at the Obama campaign. On Monday we have George Obama,on Tuesday and Wednesday we have William Ayers and the Obama crimminalization of free speech and Thursday we learn there is no recession.

I haven't enjoyed a Democratic convention week so much since 1980.

Paul #1: "My main l... (Below threshold)
Kenny:


Paul #1: "My main large home costs me about $700 a month in oil to heat during the Winter compared to zero during the Summer for example"

Rich #6: "$700 a month? Where do you live and what size house do you have? Does it have a roof?"


Rich, you may be on to something. Paul lives in Portland, Oregon. It is a town where if they get 1/2 inch of snow the town shuts down, so it isn't that cold in the winter. So $700 a month to heat it makes it eithar a HUGE house on the scale of Al Gore's mansion, or he doesn't have a roof on it!

Paul, Seriously, you gotta look at insulation. Even if your mansion IS the size of Al Gore's, you can get it pretty well insulated for less than what you spend heating it in a year.

And then, you can pat yourself on the back for reducing your personal oil consumption! Bonus!!


Oh, it's not going to screw... (Below threshold)
Brett:

Oh, it's not going to screw up the talking points. All it will do is change them. If someone points out that there really isn't a recession (and that the economy is actually growing at a good clip), they will jump on it to ask 'regular people' "is your life getting any better", or "how does this help my childred(tm)". A parade of dupes will come on with their mortgage sob stories, and that will be used as "proof" that anyone saying good things about the economy is "out of touch".

IOW, same bullcrap they have been pulling, apparently with some success, for years.

Wow. I live near Albany (n... (Below threshold)

Wow. I live near Albany (not exactly the most moderate winters) and I think in the past we've paid less then twice that $700 for an entire winter's heating. That's probably late Sept.-early Oct. thru April-May or so. Yeah, it's going to be higher this year, too bad we didn't start drilling 10 years ago because it wouldn't help for 10 years.

Just spotted this at the re... (Below threshold)

Just spotted this at the reliably unbiased and businesslike briefing.com:

"The revised GDP number shows the economy is faring far better than many pessimists believed. Moreover, trends in the data suggest third quarter GDP will expand at a similar rate."

Oh, and those evil speculators watching the Gulf have oil down 2.2% today.

You have to keep your house... (Below threshold)
Ray H.:

You have to keep your house warm in the winter to ensure you pot plants grow properly year round.

Sorry, my comment probably ... (Below threshold)
Ray H.:

Sorry, my comment probably wasn't clear enough. I'm imagining Paul is spending $700 a month keeping the house warm enough to grow the plants.

There has also been <a href... (Below threshold)
Mike:

There has also been a significant decline in the number of homeless living in the US -- but since we've had a Republican in the White House for the last 8 years, I guess that news just wasn't worth celebrating.

Kim,One of the bes... (Below threshold)
TheRealSwede:

Kim,

One of the best illustrations I have seen of how the MSM works to push their agenda while at the same time undermining our Republic. Their method and intent couldn't be clearer to any clear-thinking and fair-minded individual.

These must be those dastard... (Below threshold)
JFO:

These must be those dastardly dems you're referring to:

1. "Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has warned the economy will be weak through the rest of 2008. Economists believe growth will slow in the July-September quarter to a pace of around 1.5 percent, and will turn even weaker in the fourth quarter. Some, including Regalia, think the economy might jolt into reverse yet again."

2. "There will be heavy sledding for the U.S. economy during the next couple of quarters," predicted Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America's Investment Strategies Group."

3."Others agreed that the growth pickup wasn't a sign of better days ahead. Analysts predict the second quarter will represent the high point for economic activity this year."

JFO,"Economists be... (Below threshold)
Kenny:

JFO,

"Economists believe growth will slow in the July-September quarter to a pace of around 1.5 percent, and will turn even weaker in the fourth quarter"

Have you noticed over the last few years that when the real numbers come in, they are always better than were expected?

"The revised reading was much better than the government's initial estimate of a 1.9 percent pace and exceeded economists' expectations for a 2.7 percent growth rate."

Hmmmmmm.... Nope, no bias detected!

So $700 a month t... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:
So $700 a month to heat it makes it eithar a HUGE house on the scale of Al Gore's mansion

Wait a minuute... have you considered that maybe Paul IS Al Gore? Or at least his online alter ego? If he can invent the internet and his mother could sing him a union jingle years before it was written as a lullaby, clearly nothing is beyond him. Consider:
Huge ego.
Claims that at first blush, seem reasonable but then quickly snowball into Munchausenesque delusions.
Giant utility bill for multiple homes, while trying to ingratiate with the little guy.

Hmmmm, I wonder, was it ManBearPig that jumped in front of the moped and caused the accident?

I question the timing ;)</p... (Below threshold)
John S:

I question the timing ;)

To believe the government's GDP numbers you have to also believe their 2% inflation number -- in the same quarter gasoline went from $2.80 to $4.20 a gallon and food rose by 15%. I expect these numbers will be revised back down to reality after the election. After all, the economy will have to absorb a $10 trillion bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (that's a doubling the national debt by printing money, folks). 500% inflation here we come. (Of course, the Obama bin Biden adminstration will tell us it's only 5% inflation.)

Do they even heat with oil ... (Below threshold)
Bullwinkle:

Do they even heat with oil in Portland, Oregon? Barely because electricity is cheap up there due to hydroelectric power but they sure do have a lot leaks where they do...

Paul Hooson is a polluter? Al is going to be dissappointed in you, Paul.

I'm as surprised as you to ... (Below threshold)
mpbk:

I'm as surprised as you to hear that heating oil is used in Portland OR. But check out this Google search.

http://www.google.com/search?q=portland+oregon+%22heating+oil%22

Paul, You obviousy n... (Below threshold)
Bullwinkle:

Paul,
You obviousy need a tire guage. Air up the tires on one of your scooters and drive it to one of your not-so-main houses. You should have to stop about half-way there and drain some gas out.

"Wow. I live near Albany (n... (Below threshold)
Ann NY:

"Wow. I live near Albany (not exactly the most moderate winters) and I think in the past we've paid less then twice that $700 for an entire winter's heating."

Wow. I live in the Hudson Valley and we rent a 2300 sq ft house and our heating bill is around $700 each month in the winter. Obviously it's not a well insulated house, but it's not drafty either. When we do finally buy a house (we've been waiting for the bubble to burst) insulation will be a top priority.

That's tough, Ann. Our hou... (Below threshold)

That's tough, Ann. Our house is a little smaller than that and built around 1940, so it's well constructed. Plus we close off a fairly big bedroom that we don't use unless we have guests and shut off the radiator in that room. Insulate, insulate, insulate. Good luck with the heating bills.

I'm going to repeat this st... (Below threshold)

I'm going to repeat this statement from a sober source one more time, because some of you failed to grasp the significance and reached back for some older stated expectations...this one is from THURSDAY:

Moreover, trends in the data suggest third quarter GDP will expand at a similar rate.

The statements about 2Q08 high points and heavy sledding were more valid months ago before 2Q08 growth nearly doubled early readings and before oil dropped about $30/bbl and gasoline dropped, what, 50 cents or more/gal?

Oh, and while house prices are still declining, sales are showing a bottom and builder stocks are starting to show signs of life as they start to make positive statements about the home building environment. Again...this is news from THIS WEEK and thereabouts.




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