"The numbers also suggest that McCain/Palin does better than McCain."

And Obama does better than Obama/Biden.

Just an observation. But, like some, I don't read much into polls.

Yeah, the only real poll that counts will be in November.

I'm curious if this is part of the bounce or not.

Oyster, JL, ExSub:

This poll seems to be too different than Gallup/Rasmussen that have Obama still ahead. If you're not relying much on these polls, where would you say that we need to shift our resources: i.e. I'm interested in what you guys think as far as:
Colorado, Ohio, Michigan. My wife and I are praying for a minor miracle of turning PA red. And what can we do guys, to get more votes in these states?

The media was relentless in its assault on Palin and that's only bolstered McCain's #s. Obama will probably select a female to do his dirtywork (I've read Hillary in the press)--that's only going to add more points to the McCain tally. We still need to get the Ayers story broadcast publicly, get Obama's birth certificate stuff nailed down, and get a hold of papers written in school. Those things should turn up something that can be used to put McCain decisively over the top.

dcm,

Now you're talking. Will that happen though? Ayers especially, is that being investigated by people on the right who know how to do opposition research?

nehemiah-

I recommend Rasmussen for the state-by-state breakdown.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

It's a bit out-dated by now -- it's the state of things before the two conventions -- but it's still a good starting point.

Of the states GWB won in 2004, we can probably forget about Iowa (McCain has always told it like it is on ethanol, rather than pandering. Irritating to lose Iowa, but nice to have a candidate who sticks to his principles) and New Mexico is leaning Democratic this go round (McCain hasn't made anything like the push GWB made to attract hispanic voters as such.

That leaves us with Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia needing shoring up, and Minnesota, New Hampshire, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin potentially poachable.

Nehemiah -

I observe, I theorize, I match my theories against the election - and then try to figure out where I failed or succeeded. I haven't given ANY contributions to any candidate - though I'm VERY tempted at this point to contribute to the Republican party.

As far as getting more voters out - that one's simple. Have a likable, responsible candidate with an honest message. It doesn't have to be what you consider a GOOD message, but it has to be honest and it has to resonate with the voters. Obama did for a while - but folks are looking at him, and not finding in him what he says he had. He peaked early and figured momentum and the media would carry him through.

Palin... feels honest, has a reputation for honesty and integrity, which is why they're trying so hard to slime her. Same with McCain - you might not agree with his points of view at times, but he's not your usual politician who says one thing and does another.

I think the Dems are going to rip themselves apart trying to combat that duo. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

I think a clearer message from McCain and Palin on jobs is in order. Not platitudes, not focusing on the failures of others. They need to paint a picture, in the simplest terms possible on why excessive legislation, taxation and regulation get in the way of job growth and what McCain can do to turn it around. Especially in Ohio and Michigan.

Obama's message has largely been one of, "I know you're hurting and we're gonna punish those bastards."

I would think Sarah would do well with the Hispanic women. I have known many and think they would identify with her family. They have strong families and work hard to raise them.

All these folks aint really saying nothing about the issues, Obma is a little tiny bit, but it seems like Palin and McCain just mantra stealing when they need to talk about N. Korea rebuilding nukes like North Korea has fallen off the map

North Korea's getting froggy because they figure we're distracted with politics (which we are...) and if Obama wins they'll be able to continue undisturbed - except for diplomats visiting, and some food, booze and willing broads ought to take care of them.

If McCain wins - they can go "We wuzzn't doin' nuttin, honest!" and stand back down with little or no face lost. If Obama wins, they've got a couple months head start on reconstituting their nuclear program. And they know HE won't do anything. (It would, after all, require making a decision and sticking to it, something that he's not exactly known for.)

Actually, Gallup today has McCain/Palin ahead by 2 points.