I saw on Fox News just a little bit ago that Larry Sabato is saying from what he's hearing McCain's post convention bounce will be big. Gallup's new daily tracking poll may be the start of this bounce:
The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.
There are three very significant things about this. One, this poll was taken from September 4-6, which means that one third of these numbers are pre-McCain convention speech. Two, this poll is of registered voters, not likely voters, which means it tends to skew more toward the Democrats. And three, this sample is really big and has a margin of error of +/- 2, which means McCain is polling outside the margin of error.
McCain's post-convention bounce could be big, folks. Yes, it could be very big, indeed.
Update: Don Surber weighs in and writes this:
The 11-point swing by McCain is mainly due to Palin.McCain made his first presidential decision -- the first appointment to his Cabinet. And the public wholeheartedly agrees.
Obama's pick of Democratic Sen. Joe Biden? Not so much.
Great point.
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2008 Presidential Race
Comments (10)
Probably the "Oopsie" of th... (Below threshold)1. Posted by Proud Kaffir | September 7, 2008 1:53 PM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Probably the "Oopsie" of the decade:
Obama: "My Muslim faith"
I thought our candidate was suppose to be the old guy with the memory problems. Apparently, Barry momentarily forgot his religion. He needs a refresher from Rev. "God Damn America" Wright.
1. Posted by Proud Kaffir | September 7, 2008 1:53 PM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 13:53
2. Posted by Justrand![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| September 7, 2008 2:09 PM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Obama: "Here's a list of terrible things people MIGHT say against me. Therefore I am outraged...and a VICTIM!"
Leftist Logic
a word of caution on the polls...
At the slightest up-tic for Obama the headlines will SCREAM:
"Momentum Shifts for Obama"
just sayin'
2. Posted by Justrand![[TypeKey Profile Page]](http://wizbangblog.com/nav-commenters.gif)
| September 7, 2008 2:09 PM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 14:09
3. Posted by Drago | September 7, 2008 2:52 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Justrand: "At the slightest up-tic for Obama the headlines will SCREAM:
"Momentum Shifts for Obama"
There hasn't been an election in my lifetime when the MSM didn't create a "last weeks of campaign polling surge" for Dems as a way to help their dem pals.
3. Posted by Drago | September 7, 2008 2:52 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 14:52
4. Posted by Guest | September 7, 2008 4:27 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Small correction. Plus/minus 2% applies seperately to the estimates of the means for McCain and Obama.
That means with whatever confidence they state (assume 95%) McCain's percntage lies between 44 and 48 and Obama's between 41 and 45. Since the interval overlap there is no significant statistical difference between the two estimated values.
4. Posted by Guest | September 7, 2008 4:27 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 16:27
5. Posted by Guest | September 7, 2008 4:28 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Oops, should be 43 to 47 for the Obamassiah
5. Posted by Guest | September 7, 2008 4:28 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 16:28
6. Posted by Guest | September 7, 2008 4:29 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Double oops, I let the NYT do my fact and math checking.
McCain obviously should be 46 to 50.
Since 46 to 50 and 43 to 47 still overlap there is no statistically significant difference between the two estimates.
6. Posted by Guest | September 7, 2008 4:29 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 16:29
7. Posted by daniel rotter | September 7, 2008 8:12 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
What the heck does "last weeks of campaign polling surge" mean?
7. Posted by daniel rotter | September 7, 2008 8:12 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 20:12
8. Posted by Modean | September 7, 2008 8:17 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Third times a charm but Guest is correct on that last post. However what I find more interesting is that all the polls now show McCain/Palin with a small lead over Obama/Biden and tomorrow we'll likely see that either extended by another point or two which would infact move it out of the moe for the poll.
As interesting as that all is I really want to see the crosstabs because I think that while McCain has picked up some women his biggest pickup will be among men, especially male independents. Almost everyone I talked with who's now excited about the McCain/Palin ticket loves Palin but it was McCain's speech that really hooked them.
8. Posted by Modean | September 7, 2008 8:17 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 20:17
9. Posted by Drago | September 7, 2008 8:25 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Daniel: "What the heck does "last weeks of campaign polling surge" mean?"
As we near the end of the campaign (iow, during the last weeks of the campaign), the MSM polling outfits will suddenly show a "surge" of support for the democratic ticket.
It's happened every time and this year will be no different.
9. Posted by Drago | September 7, 2008 8:25 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 20:25
10. Posted by daniel rotter | September 7, 2008 9:57 PM | Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
"...the MSM polling outfits will suddenly show a 'surge' of support for the democratic ticket".
It's happened every time and this year will be no different".
Care to give any specific examples? Or does bashing the dreaded "Mainstream Media" not require pesky things like those?
10. Posted by daniel rotter | September 7, 2008 9:57 PM |
Score: -2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on September 7, 2008 21:57