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Debate Predictions

Mark Tapscott is predicting a Palin win. His reasons all make good sense. After all the attempts to paint her as Dan Quayle in a dress, the expectations for her performance are pretty low. If she is relaxed I think she will be as successful as she was in her convention speech. If she tenses up and tries too hard to parse her answers in fear of making a mistake, she will come across exactly as she did in the Gibson and Couric interviews. One huge advantage to the debate, as opposed to those interviews, is that tonight will be live and unedited. That is a huge deal for any Republican and the reason I constantly harp on how important it is for Republicans to take advantage of any opportunity to speak directly to the American people without the media filtering it. She is very likeable when she is relaxed -- think about how she came across in the different segments of the Gibson interview. When they were walking outside she was relaxed and spoke off the cuff quite well. When she was sitting in a stiff chair, in front of a bunch of television lights and cameras being stared down by Professor Gibson, she tensed up. What might be more of a mystery is how Joe Biden will do. If the man can get through the entire debate without sticking his foot in his mouth or sounding like a pompous ass, it will be quite an accomplishment.

Update: Here is a great piece on Sarah Palin and the integrity gap in the race.


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Comments (38)

Let us hope you are correct... (Below threshold)
Wordygirl:

Let us hope you are correct. I was/AM a strong supporter of Palin, and I want to see her succeed, but I'm very worried as are many conservatives I talk to.

Well she has been absolutel... (Below threshold)
jp2:

Well she has been absolutely outstanding in her interviews, so I see no reason why she should not be able to crush Biden.

She comes off very well informed and knowledgeable on a host of issues. (Supreme Court cases especially)

...but, but, she can't win.... (Below threshold)
rodney dill:

...but, but, she can't win... The MSM has already written their articles that she lost.

Hopefully she will do amazi... (Below threshold)
Ryan:

Hopefully she will do amazing.

My friend started a site for people to leave comments in support of Sarah Palin. It's a shame the amount of media attacks she's received.

http://www.supportsarahpalin.us/index.php?p=3

Hopefully she slows the hec... (Below threshold)

Hopefully she slows the heck down, her cadence during interviews is positively frantic compared to her public speeches, etc.

Seeing how most of the medi... (Below threshold)
TJ:

Seeing how most of the media interview have been done in such a way that selective editing can be used to make Ms. Palin look bad, it will be interesting to see her live, again.

I'm fully expecting there to be 'technical broadcast troubles' requiring a test pattern every time she starts to answer a question, which 'magically' clears up whenever Mr. Biden speaks.

Well she has been ... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
Well she has been absolutely outstanding in her interviews, so I see no reason why she should not be able to crush Biden.

jp2, I would expect your thinking to be more in line with Joe "What-am-I-talkin'-about", "Hilary's-a-better-candidate-than-me" Biden. After all, you really do want to see her fail. The one key expertise she is missing is the ability to crush herself under her own thumb.

Palin appears to me to have... (Below threshold)

Palin appears to me to have been overcoached by her advisers (all right, handlers) as if the McCain campaign is deathly afraid she will go off-message and say something different than what McCain might say. This is the main reason why her appearances in front of the camera thus far have ranged from mediocre to poor.

Unfortunately, there is no evidence that anyone on the McCain campaign staff realizes that this approach is simply not working. If she starts in with the canned generalities in tonight's debate, McCain can just kiss it all goodbye.

She will do fine. Gwen Ifil... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

She will do fine. Gwen Ifil has been marginalized and anytime she goes after Palin she will be viewed as biased. Biden will have to get tough questions to show she is fair. All good. ww

LaMedusa, play nice - jp2 w... (Below threshold)
Paul Duffau:

LaMedusa, play nice - jp2 was actually using irony and not being snarky. Major progress.

Though I think his irony might be closer to the truth than he realizes....

This debate will really be ... (Below threshold)
Okami:

This debate will really be stacked against Biden in the first place. Palin will not have to do that well to come off as the winner, simply because of how the MSM has torn her down. If she goes about as she often does in debates (the gubernatorial round table debate specifically) and uses only generalities and avoiding the question, she will still come off as winning for most people.

Okami:so do you co... (Below threshold)
Paul Duffau:

Okami:

so do you consider the MSM attacks to have been over the top? I certainly do.

I also expect that the MSM will have a much higher standard for her than for Biden and every real and imagined error will be replayed ad infinitum to prove the point.

But the real test will be whether she wins over voters. I think she will. People will find she is bright, charming and capable rather than the caricature they've read about or heard in the MSM.

We'll see tonight at that hour just before the trolls come out to play....

But the real test ... (Below threshold)
But the real test will be whether she wins over voters. I think she will. People will find she is bright, charming and capable rather than the caricature they've read about or heard in the MSM.

Well, that depends. If Mrs. Palin has been coached to play prevent defense, she'll win over nobody.

Paul - I think the MSM has ... (Below threshold)
Okami:

Paul - I think the MSM has been attacking her too much, but many of the attacks are pretty fair. On the other hand, the amount of attacks is going to make her look really good if she can pull it together and debate the way we have seen her do so in the past. As for convincing voters, the fact is the MSM attacking her intelligence is a great boost for her, cause she looks far better by comparison.

okami:Could you sp... (Below threshold)
Paul Duffau:

okami:

Could you specify which attacks have been fair in your opinion - there have been so many that it would be nice to have reference points. thanks.

And the MSM has been helpful in the sense of lowering expectations. She does need to back it up as I mantioned above. OregonMuse is correct in saying that she will not engage voters if she parrots talking points. Hopefully, she knows this (even if the McCain camp doesn't) and will be herself. It's either good enough or its not.

Even if you believe, as Oka... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

Even if you believe, as Okami appears to, that the quality of the attacks are OK, it does prove the adage that quantity can provide a quality all its own.

Paul - mostly I mean that s... (Below threshold)
Okami:

Paul - mostly I mean that she has been screwing up in interviews, questioning her experience (which I still think is a fair question, though is over asked and never really answered).

Shameless plug for my blog:... (Below threshold)

Shameless plug for my blog: I have the live stream up for tonight's debate if anyone is looking for a place online to watch.

Paul Duffau~"jp2 w... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

Paul Duffau~

"jp2 was actually using irony and not being snarky. Major progress."

jp2's decoy analysis would make him appear almost subtle. I never comment toward the decoy. You didn't think I was being ironic, too? ;)

Anyway, I think she'll do fine, and I believe Biden will be a lot more honest with her than Obama.

Paul - I think the... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
Paul - I think the MSM has been attacking her too much, but many of the attacks are pretty fair.

Okambi~

When is an "attack" ever fair? I read you as just going along with the MSM's angle on her interviews, plus the focus on her human fallacies. What I am really hoping is this interview won't be about who stumbles over their words the most. I would like to hear coherent answers on each side to the questions, and ignore the fact that the moderator is an Obama supporter who's trying to cash in-uh-get attention for herself as a "part of history" in the making.

LaMedusa: Okay, so maybe I... (Below threshold)
Paul Duffau:

LaMedusa: Okay, so maybe I give too much credit to jp2 but it was nice not to see talking points.

My prediction is this. Joe ... (Below threshold)
wbgonne:

My prediction is this. Joe Biden is verbose. Sarah Palin self-destructs and McCain is forced to get rid of her (er, I mean, Todd begs her to come home b/c the family cannot do without her and she, reluctantly, acquiesces).

Should be interesting.

Sarah Palin self-d... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
Sarah Palin self-destructs

wbgonne, you have really violent images toward Sarah Palin, so I'll just ignore your hatred. You couldn't destroy her, so you now want her to self-destruct.

LaMedusa - first, stop putt... (Below threshold)
Okami:

LaMedusa - first, stop putting a b in my handle :p second,I would say an attack it fair when it is a reasonable thing to say about a candidate, and seems to relate to the job she is applying for. As for my take on the interviews, I watched as many as I could in the entirety, and the clips they show seem to be pretty consistent of how she comes off in interviews if she is not comfortable. I try not to rely too much on the MSM for my opinions, especially on people.

Okami~Okay, b is r... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

Okami~

Okay, b is removed. Now, sources to where she looks uncomfortable, please. If you have seen "a number" of them, I want to see them, too, and what you are talking about. Not just the segments about the news sources, the bailout, and that one where she stumbling that we have already seen. You have a list of sources to your argument? Let's see them, please.

<a href="http://www.youtube... (Below threshold)
Okami:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRIwVVqrwMc&feature=related

There are many times during this interview where she does not answer the questions and talks around them, and tends to use the same buzz words a great deal.

As far as other sources, it is tough to find many interviews. If you want more, let me know.

I see it this way: Palin h... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

I see it this way: Palin has about 25 Obama/Biden gaffes she can use in this debate. The campaign is losing because McCain has never been a conservative, so Sarah has nothing to lose. Memorize the 25 gaffes and use them tonight. With or without lipstick, we need the true pitbull to show up tonight.

Okami,You said she... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

Okami,

You said she looked uncomfortable. I would like to see those. Thank you for the link, that was a nice interview with Hannity.

Palin will have a well thou... (Below threshold)
Cockroach:

Palin will have a well thought out response to most of the questions. Her strategy will be to give a rehearsed reply that touches on the topic of the question without really answering the question.

Where Palin will trip up is if she is asked a second question on the same topic. She will already have provided a memorized response to the first question and won't have anything left to say. If this happens she will monentary look like a deer in headlights. Then she will repeat most of her response from the first question, however, it won't sound as elegant.

The above is a best case scenario. Worst case is Palin will give incoherent replies or make many factually incorrect statements.

If Palin totally blows it, the religous right won't see it that way. If McCain decides to drop her from the ticket, Palin will withdraw stating she needs to spend more time caring for her family. The religous right will feel that she was forced off the ticket and is just being graceful. The religous right will hold this against McCain and not vote.

If McCain's strategy is to hold on to the religous right he will choose Mike Huckabee. Otherwise it will be Romney or less likely Giuliani.

Prediction 2:Palin... (Below threshold)
Cockroach:

Prediction 2:

Palin will have a well thought out response to most of the questions. Her strategy will be to give a rehearsed reply that touches on the topic of the question without really answering the question.

A small percentage of Palins responses will actuall answer the question but the vast majority will not. People on Wizbang will point out the few that do as proof that I was wrong.

Palin is doing very well. ... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

Palin is doing very well. You can tell she is a little nervous. Biden's first screw up was to laugh at the first question.

They are both doing pretty well and were cordial with each other from the beginning. This is a well paced debate with civility.

Coakroach~

People on Wizbang will point out the few that do as proof that I was wrong.

Your personal opinion is not necessarily a focal point of this debate. Like my comment, it's just an opinion.

Neither one answering the q... (Below threshold)
epador:

Neither one answering the questions. Looks to be a draw so far, and the moderator already asked a different question to each one showing her bias once.

Your personal opin... (Below threshold)
Cockroach:
Your personal opinion is not necessarily a focal point of this debate. Like my comment, it's just an opinion.

LaMedusa,

It's impossible for someone on the left to state their opinion on this site without somebody criticizing it. In fact you have just proven that point.

Cool, talking off topic abo... (Below threshold)
epador:

Cool, talking off topic about energy and getting + results.

In fact you have j... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
In fact you have just proven that point.

Cockroach, every left leaning blog I visit, I get criticized. It's called a difference of opinion. You insist that right leaning commenters are using a fraction of your opinion to prove your point. What I said was, this debate isn't all about how much of your opinion is important.

LaMedusa,Your maki... (Below threshold)
Cockroach:

LaMedusa,

Your making too much out of what I said. Since the topic of this thread is debate predictions, I included my prediction of the reaction to my predictions. Nothing I said implies my opinion is the focal point of this debate. I was merely stating all of my predictions.

Cockroach~<blockquote... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

Cockroach~

Your making too much out of what I said.

Agreed. Copasetic.

LaMedusa,I'll admi... (Below threshold)
Cockroach:

LaMedusa,

I'll admit my predictions were wrong.




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