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The Fourth Quarter

I generally don't like sports analogies when discussing politics, because 1 - it's more important than any game, and 2 - the analogy usually misses by a bit. But in this case, the analogy is close enough to be useful, and the point is important.

Back when I was younger, I was an official in several sports, including high school football here in Texas. Some games were tough, hard-fought matters, and when the last quarter started, both teams were tired and hurt. It came down in those contests, to who was willing to stick it out for twelve more minutes on the clock, maybe a couple or three dozen plays of bruising tackles, hard hits, and fighting your own body to go a little farther, carry the play through to the end, keeping up your block or running your route all the way through. Because you knew that the game was still anyone's to have, even if you or they were ahead. Sometimes you could beat a big lead, if you were tough enough and refused to give up.

The media is completely in the tank for Obama, we know that. So it should not surprise anyone that the polls they publish all show him in the lead. Numbers can be fudged, and the polls have done that. The funny thing is, if we give up and don't vote, if we sit on our butts and whine about the world and do not get our neighbors, friends and citizens motivated to support John McCain, then those weasels will have succeeded in getting us to quit and they will get the lopsided party turnout they are predicting. Make no mistake, though, if Obama wins it will be because too many good men did nothing.

I explained yesterday that when the polls are reweighted to historically valid norms, McCain leads Obama. It's tight but very real, and if we just fight through to the end the way we have through August, then we will certainly win.

Want more? There's a lot of folks still undecided out there. Taking the levels of support by party from four major polls which published their internals, here are the portions of undecided voters as of October 1:

GALLUP: 15.52% of voters are still undecided

CBS NEWS: 9.70% of voters are still undecided

FOX NEWS: 15.56% of voters are still undecided

Franklin & Marshall: 17.19% of voters are still undecided

When you add that information to the margin of error and correct for the historically invalid weighting the polls are using, it becomes absolutely clear that this race has a long way to go. Trusting the MSM is like believing what the other team's cheerleaders tell you.

Gut it up, this one's no where near over, we're just starting the fourth quarter. Now is where we find out who's got what it takes.


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Comments (32)

FYI, Franklin and Marshall... (Below threshold)
slider:

FYI, Franklin and Marshall....aka F&M is a liberal arts college, i live 8 blocks from it. for them to have 17% undecided says a lot.

Right on! Anyone who stays... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Right on! Anyone who stays home and doesn't vote is:
1. A fool
2. Given up any right to bitch about who occupies the White House

Thanks DJ. Your post is a g... (Below threshold)
macy:

Thanks DJ. Your post is a good palette cleanser from the relentless negativity I've been reading today.

Buck up Repubs. Many turns in the road yet to come.

I never miss the opportunit... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

I never miss the opportunity to vote against a Marxist that will in all likelihood start signing gun control laws that turn me into a criminal.

Short answer: No way in hell I'm not going to vote.

Long answer: I'm explaining to people what fascism is and how its almost here if they don't vote against it.

Remember 1984?"As ... (Below threshold)
Drmoff:

Remember 1984?

"As the 1984 elections near, it becomes increasingly clear that Ronald Reagan not only can but may well be beaten. And this in turn becomes a factor in the situation, as resignation to four more years of Reaganism gives way to hope of something at least less detestable."

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m1132/is_v36/ai_3409492

Yeah... I remember... RR in a landslide. So are the polls valid? No.


I explained yesterday th... (Below threshold)
wbgonne:

I explained yesterday that when the polls are reweighted to historically valid norms, McCain leads Obama. It's tight but very real, and if we just fight through to the end the way we have through August, then we will certainly win.

Wanna bet something substantial on that, do ya?

What, the stakes are not hi... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

What, the stakes are not high enough already, wb?

wbgonne -You reall... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

wbgonne -

You really think Obama's going to be good for the US?

Check out Grove Parc. Ain't it great to think that Obama's hand will turn the country into THAT?

As I see it, right now our ... (Below threshold)

As I see it, right now our only hope is maximum turnout!

Trusting the MSM i... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:
Trusting the MSM is like believing what the other team's cheerleaders tell you.

I thought they were the other team's cheerleaders.

"A long way to go?" What b... (Below threshold)
wolfwalker:

"A long way to go?" What brand of glue have you been sniffing, DJ? This election has been effectively over since the day after the 2004 election, when the socialist traitors in the Vermin Party and the mainstream media declared open war on the Bush administration and set out to destroy him by any means necessary. Any remaining shred of doubt vanished when the Vermin Party picked the Snob as its candidate. A Republican victory was never a real possibility. Not in the presidency, not in Congress. I'm amazed that McCain is still as close as he is.

Wolfwalker, if you're going... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

Wolfwalker, if you're going to act French, move there. Sitting on your butt just gives Obama what he wants.

"2. Given up any right ... (Below threshold)
marc:

"2. Given up any right to bitch about who occupies the White House"

Sorry, I always have to pick at this "bone."

As long as your taxes are paid, regardless of your voting record, you have every right to be critical or sing the praises of the current resident of the WH.

He/she was always be under your/my employ, and getting paid via my/your taxes.

DJ, I'm surprised at you. ... (Below threshold)
Herman:

DJ, I'm surprised at you. You're forgetting the wicked ace of spades the Republicans have up their sleeves:

DIEBOLD.

In this regard, perhaps one Homer J. Simpson can show you Republicans just how good you have it:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1aBaX9GPSaQ

You really think Obama's... (Below threshold)
wbgonne:

You really think Obama's going to be good for the US?

I do. And, you know what, I think many of you are going to be pleasantly surprised.

The media wants Obama to wi... (Below threshold)
mag:

The media wants Obama to win come hell or high water. Just like they wanted us to "loose" the Vietnam war. Otherwise this guy wouldn't even be in the news. I think he is a muslim sympathizer and communist (or close to one)....the man disgusts me....worst are the people who back him. Sorry that's the way it is.

I think many of yo... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
I think many of you are going to be pleasantly surprised.

More like unsurprisingly disappointed, based on the lies he used in the debate. wbgonne, what do you think will be pleasantly suprising about him, and what about him has you so enamored?

Sorry that's the w... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
Sorry that's the way it is.

I know, mag, but we've been able to roll with the punches before.

I love sports analogies...a... (Below threshold)

I love sports analogies...and yes it IS the 4th Quarter!

Sadly, the "referee" [Gwen Awful] in tonight's "game" has a $1,000,000 bet on the OTHER team!

I am a fan of the S.F. 49er... (Below threshold)
Hestrold:

I am a fan of the S.F. 49ers. In the Bill Walsh era they pulled many games out of the loss column in the last quarter, and often in the 2 minute drill at the end of the game. If Obama is going to win, he wins by clouding his true political agenda, by having his minions pony up voter registration nonsense, (ala Ohio early voting), by having a press cheerleading corp. with a rival to none. So he's odds on to win. But the race ain't over until it's over.

Remember Bill Clinton won the first time because of the blowhard from Texas, Perot. No other reason. American's as a rule don't elect lefties!

DJ knows his stuff. He was ... (Below threshold)
politicaljunkie:

DJ knows his stuff. He was RIGHT ON in 2004 under similiar circumstances. Thanks for your perspective!

I saw this kind of... (Below threshold)
dr lava:

I saw this kind of talk from you guys in 2006. Remember the anguish the day after the election? Are you really so clueless as to not be anticipating a tsunami? You guys have been wrong about EVERYTHING since I started checking in here 3 years ago. The point of this blog is to not discuss problems and propose solutions it is to cry like toddlers about the evil liberals.

Actually lava, I'm 1 and 1.... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

Actually lava, I'm 1 and 1. I was dead on in 2004 (at another site), and missed 2006.

FWIW.

lava:You are tires... (Below threshold)
maggie:

lava:

You are tiresome.

D.J. Drummond makes a great... (Below threshold)
Theresa Gawbill:

D.J. Drummond makes a great deal of sense. I am in a malaise, though, because it seems as if McCain has stopped fighting. I want him to get back that sharp edge he had in the summer when he used humor and wit to cut through Obama's phony facade and hype. He has quieted that wit, and it scares his supporters. Save the noble spirit until after he wins; he needs to go after Obama, who is still very vulnerable. Yet we've heard nothing from McCain about Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, his connection to Fannie and Freddie, etc. I'm with McCain until the end. I volunteer a few hours a day making calls and walking door to door. McCain needs to reassure us that he means to fight on their level: low down, in your face, loud and straightforward. Tell the country the repercussions of electing Obama and make it stick!

How'd that magical energy s... (Below threshold)

How'd that magical energy solution of Pelosi's work, Lava?

You know, the incantation that started "Don't drill! Don't drill! Don't do anything!"?

Or Reid's magical solution for Iraq - how'd that one go again? Oh, yeah, I remember - "Run AWAY!"

Democrats are always good at telling you all the wonderful things they'll do for you. And what as Pelosi and company done? Gas at $4 a gallon, the economy in the tank due to DEMOCRATS pushing hard against ANY regulation on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - and idiots like you cheerfully ignore THAT reality for some 'reality-based' fantasy that has Bush as an evil omnipotent incompetent.

Well, you'd better hope your Obama is as good as you think he is - otherwise the entire US is going to look like Detroit and Grove Parc. In fact, looking at how far the media is in the tank for him, I REALLY hope he's as good as you think, but you really might want to consider looking up the record of the man, and not just the fluff the media keeps palming off as substance.

4th Qtr...PUT ME I... (Below threshold)
Knightbrigade:

4th Qtr...

PUT ME IN COACH!!!!!!

Not only should EVERY McCain supporter VOTE!!!
They should HELP make calls, knock on doors, whatever they can to help.
If close to a battleground state, GO THERE and help.

I'm in the peoples republic of mASSachusetts, but I WILL WORK my butt off in NH to the end.

100% effort EVERY time.....
unless of course you don't mind socialism.

Wbgonne -Thanks fo... (Below threshold)

Wbgonne -

Thanks for responding civilly. You said "I do. And, you know what, I think many of you are going to be pleasantly surprised."

I must admit, I don't think I will be. I look at the tactics that are being used to win the Presidency for Obama, and am rather appalled.

The prosecutors who threaten stations for anti-Obama ads they don't approve of, the rampant voting illegalities in Ohio by ACORN and other organizations in the tank for Obama - the 'truth squads' doing their best to smooth and astroturf his way into the White House - do you really believe that such things will simply cease to exist on Nov. 5th?

Or will they grow and enlarge their scope of action with an Obama win?

And if they do - how long until 'anti-Obama' speech is prosecuted as hate speech? He is, after all, black - so anything negative about him or his policies is automatically racially motivated, and therefore exempt from protection under the First Amendment.

You seem to believe that nothing bad will come of an Obama win.

I really wish I could be so sure of it as you are. Because I believe that there's very little good that can come of it.

drblabla~... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

drblabla~

The point of this blog is to not discuss problems and propose solutions it is to cry like toddlers about the evil liberals.

Just because you don't understand the topic well enough to make a contribution, doesn't mean you can play pretend with a non-substance comment. You can't even tell whether or not DJ's right (which he is), we're coming down to who the stronger rep is.

OK, DJ, give me one reason ... (Below threshold)
wolfwalker:

OK, DJ, give me one reason to feel optimistic about this election. McCain looks and acts like a loser -- and a RINO to boot. The national Republican Party is looking and acting like a bunch of losers. The R candidate in my Congressional district is barely running a campaign at all. Time after time after time, the goddamned socialists give the GOP perfect openings for brutal, murderously effective attacks, and time after time the GOP lets them pass unmarked. The only people talking up conservatism are radio talk show hosts and right-wing blogs. The only even marginally-effective ads I've seen for any R candidate have come from independent groups. Meanwhile, the MSM airs a nonstop stream of gloom, doom, and lies about Republicans -- well, that's what they do when they can pull their noses out of the Snob's rectum. And the sheep in the electorate listen to them, and not to you or me.

In short, I see no reason for hope. Do you?

Lava...yes...he was right o... (Below threshold)
politicaljunkie:

Lava...yes...he was right on in 2004! Under similiar circumstances. (You can't evaluate 435 plus 33 (senate) polls in the same way you can 10 national and/or 10 battleground state presidential polls. And even most democrats were surprised with the results of 2006...you seldom get your "best case scenario" results...and they did.

In 2004, under similiar circumstances (10 national polls, 10 battleground state polls...20 polls as opposed to 435/33=468) he was RIGHT on! I followed that site all the time!

Look Palin did her part; no... (Below threshold)
Pam:

Look Palin did her part; now we have to do ours! We need to stay engaged and enraged for the next four and half weeks. We vote no matter how far the MSM polls say McCain is behind!

I posted this somewhere else: Do you all remember when Drudge posted the exit polls on election day 2004; they said Kerry would win Ohio and become president. Well, if we had become disheartened and not voted, Kerry would have become president.

The polls are meant to discourage us; we have got to stay focused and vote. Turn out; turn out; turn out!




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