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Factors That Could Lead to Obama's Downfall

Even though McCain is down in the polls, he still has some powerful ammunition to use against Barack Obama. In my column at Townhall today I talk about a few of the factors that could work in McCain's favor:

When you look at the unpopularity of the current administration, the financial crisis that has overshadowed all other issues, the fawning media and the promise of a charismatic young figure offering change, it would appear this race is over. In fact, it would not be surprising if that candidate were leading by twenty points by now. Prospects are certainly looking good for an Obama win at this time, but there are a few factors that can still work in John McCain's favor. Obama's liberal voting record, his far left associations and the fact that Democrats control the Congress could all still cause trouble for Obama...

The Democrats currently control both the House and Senate and barring some extreme unforeseen circumstances will not only continue to hold, but most likely increase their margins of control. Barack Obama has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate. Most far left liberal policies are not terribly popular with American voters, but if the Democrats control the White House and all of Congress, voters will have essentially given them a blank check to do just about anything they want. One only has to look at the extreme liberal voting record of Barack Obama, as well as the liberal agendas and records of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to see what they can expect in an Obama presidency.

This is a scenario that should frighten all but those in the most extreme left wing of the Democrat Party, but I don't think it is a scenario that most voters have really considered. Those in the media are not going to write or talk about Obama's extreme liberal voting record, just as they have not, and will not, investigate his associations with the likes of domestic terrorists, slumlords, and fat cats that fleeced Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. It is up to the McCain campaign to draw that picture for the voters.


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Comments (18)

Obama is not going anywhere... (Below threshold)

Obama is not going anywhere hold on tight and try to enjoy the ride. Hopefully a correction will take place in 2010.

Factors That Could Lead ... (Below threshold)
wbgonne:

Factors That Could Lead to Obama's Downfall?

NONE.

You are absolutely right, L... (Below threshold)
Dave:

You are absolutely right, Lorie, but the big question that looms like the 400lb. gorilla in the living room is this- Is John McCain willing to point these things out? So far, the answer has been a resounding NO. He has had so many opportunities to point out the radicalism and the failures of the Democrats and their candidates, and he has passed them up. I am beginning to seriously question his desire to win.

Still-undecided voters don'... (Below threshold)

Still-undecided voters don't pay attention to the issues (if they did, they would have decided a long time ago who they were going to vote for). Thus, an approach such as yours is going to fall on deaf ears.

For McCain to win, he's going to have to come up with something that appeals to what I call the 'casual' voter, the voter who votes more out of civic obligation, habit or because they have a few minutes while driving past the polling station than because they care passionately about one issue or another. Their party affiliation is low, their ability to cite which candidate has which position on issue X or issue Y is close to nonexistent.

I believe these voters are swayed more by personality than substance, they vote for the guy who seems nicer, the candidate they'd like to hang around with. So McCain's task during the next couple of weeks is to come across as the (1) nice guy who (2) understands and cares about the voter, and (3) will do his darndest to fight for that voter.

Obama peaked too early. He ... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

Obama peaked too early. He can only come down now. He cannot go up any further. ww

Steve,I have said ma... (Below threshold)
Lorie Byrd:

Steve,
I have said many times in the past few weeks that those still undecided don't vote on issues, but rather who they like better. If McCain can come across as more likable in the next couple debates it will help him immensely, but branding Obama with his liberal voting record will show that he is out of the mainstream and I think will make him less likable. I really do think McCain should stress that if Obama wins, and especially if he appoints a couple of SupCt justices, Dems will control everything. I don't think most Americans have really thought about that and they tend not to like it when one party has all the power.

You're right on target abou... (Below threshold)
185C:

You're right on target about the danger of Dems holding House, Senate and White House. What most don't seem to understand is that nObama's tax suggestion (I refuse to call it a plan as it has no basis in reality) is that he will have no power to enact it. None, zero, nada, zip. You only need to review Pelosi and Reids positions to see what will happen in this country under a nObama administration. He was only annointed to sign the bills that further their agenda.

I have some liberal employees that think they are not going to be affected by all the taxes (and increased load on overhead) that I, and many of my business owner peers, believe will go up. Quick lesson in small business operation: In many cases, it only takes a few thousand in cost increases to adversely affect a 40k/year employee.

McCain can't simply try to ... (Below threshold)

McCain can't simply try to brand Obama as a 'liberal', as these voters don't pay attention to labels, it just doesn't resonate with them. You and I hear 'liberal' and we know what it means, what positions it espouses and so on. To late deciding voters, it is just noise.

McCain has to, and only after establishing himself as the nice guy, break down Obama's pledges in terms of what it will mean to the voter who just doesn't think that much about Washington.

For example, on taxes, McCain has to just keep repeating that Obama is a Democrat just as night follows day, Democrats raise taxes, and the negative effect is not just on the 'rich'. They'll raise taxes on you, they'll raise taxes on the guys who fix your cars, the grocery stores you buy your food, your boss and so on, and hammer home that raising taxes does nobody any good except for Washington insiders.

on national security, the specifics of Iraq don't matter. What matters is that McCain push himself as the cool headed experienced guy who can be trusted with the keys. he needs to analogize this by asking where in life does it make sense to give someone as inexperienced as Obama so much responsibility. Doctors don't get to operate by themselves fresh out of school, mechanics don't get to fix a car by themselves the first day, a new college graduate doesn't get to run the company. Reading books and talking round the campfire might be good enough for college students who think they know it all, but now is not - if it ever is - the right time to trust so much to someone so inexperienced. Obama may be a nice guy,he may have quite a future ahead of him, but is he the guy you want in Washington while you go to sleep? Not a chance.

McCain is too polite. He on... (Below threshold)
Scrapiron:

McCain is too polite. He only has to use the facts. Show the state of the economy in Dec 2006 and the death spiral since Jan 07 when the democrats took control of congress (facts). Show Dusty Harry Reid's comment about and 'unnamed' insurance company and the resulting stock market crash of 'all' insurance companies within 24 hours. Show Peeeloshi's stupid speach throwing a spear throw the heart of the bailout bill. Thousands of deadly 'democrat' practices are available the McCain but he's too polite to strike back. Show the Vatican speach that calls the democrat party the 'party of death' (50 million or more babies murdered in the past few years, all supported and pushed by the democrat party). Show the previous party of death in Europe, the Nazi's as a comparison. Show Hussein O's 'born alive' vote which results in 'live' babies being murdered and called legal by democrat politics.
Give Sarah Palin all the fact with supporting documentation and turn her loose.

Barack Obama has the mos... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Barack Obama has the most liberal voting record in the U.S. Senate.

On a day when Wizbang is largely devoted to debunking false utterances, it's surprising that you would repeat this solidly debunked talking point.

Brian:Who the hell i... (Below threshold)
cirby:

Brian:
Who the hell is Voteview.com? I don't think I've ever heard of them until your cite. They do some clever statistical backflips and give you a list which needs several different long explanations to describe him as only about 98% as liberal as any other Senator.

On the other hand, I have heard of the National Journal, and (surprise!) they listed him as "most liberal" - and this was before he was running for President.

It's a poorly designed site... (Below threshold)
Brian:

It's a poorly designed site that hosts the widely used Poole-Rosenthal NOMINATE system, developed by a couple of political science professors. The National Journal study is flawed, in that (among other things) it uses only 99 hand-picked Senate votes to make its determination. The Poole-Rosenthal system uses them all. The National Journal also admitted that they erred when declaring Kerry the most liberal senator in 2004.

Additionally, the National Journal study ranks Ron Paul as the 178th most-conservative lawmaker in the House. Not a very good basis for giving them any credibility.

They do some clever stat... (Below threshold)
Brian:

They do some clever statistical backflips and give you a list which needs several different long explanations

This is called "publishing your methodology", something that all good and peer-reviewed studies do.

Brian, sweetheart,Th... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

Brian, sweetheart,
The most liberal ranking is based on votes cast. Obama's most liberal ranking is based on when he actually showed up and voted other than present. And it is based on a different model than the one you cite (National Journal, if I recall).

Rather than just state that one is right and one is wrong, why not try to back up your opinion?

OK, this is what happens wh... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

OK, this is what happens when you type a response and walk away before hitting send...

Obama's most liberal ran... (Below threshold)
Brian:

Obama's most liberal ranking is based on when he actually showed up and voted other than present.

No, it's based on 99 hand-picked votes. See where I said that?

And it is based on a different model than the one you cite (National Journal, if I recall).

Well, yeah, that's why I contrasted Poole-Rosenthal with the National Journal study. See where I said that?

Rather than just state that one is right and one is wrong, why not try to back up your opinion?

You mean like when I said:

The National Journal study is flawed, in that (among other things) it uses only 99 hand-picked Senate votes to make its determination. The Poole-Rosenthal system uses them all. The National Journal also admitted that they erred when declaring Kerry the most liberal senator in 2004.


Additionally, the National Journal study ranks Ron Paul as the 178th most-conservative lawmaker in the House. Not a very good basis for giving them any credibility.

Why are you commenting on a post that you evidently didn't even read?

OK, this is what happens... (Below threshold)
Brian:

OK, this is what happens when you type a response and walk away before hitting send...

Ah, that explains it.

Who cares if he is the most... (Below threshold)
Larry:

Who cares if he is the most liberal or the second most liberal or that he came in fifth as the most liberal. The point is that he is a flaming far left liberal. He makes a big deal out of reaching out. The only place a far left liberal reaches out to is our wallets. And he admits it. So does Joe Biden.

Brian, if you are still reading this thread, tell me what income bracket Obama wants to raise taxes on, please. Then I will tell you who he is really raising taxes on.

The answer might surprise you.




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