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What's Up With This Poll?

Since DJ isn't posting today I am going to comment on a poll -- just don't anyone tell him. The past few days every time I check the Real Clear Politics poll average Obama has increased his lead. So what is up with this CBS News poll linked at Hot Air?

In a sign that the race for president has returned to about where it was before the first presidential debate, the Obama-Biden ticket leads the McCain-Palin ticket 47 percent to 43 percent among registered voters in a new CBS News poll.

The Obama-Biden ticket led by a wider margin, nine percentage points, in a CBS News poll released last Wednesday, before Joe Biden and Sarah Palin faced off in the vice presidential debate. Obama-Biden led by five percentage points on Sept. 25.

In the new poll, the Democratic ticket leads by 3 percentage points, 48 percent to 45 percent, among likely voters.

McCain picked up five points in a week in the CBS poll? He is just down by three points among likely voters? I don't know beans about polls except that I generally put too much faith in them. I guess we will have to wait a few days to see whether this is an outlier or an indication of movement. If any other polls start showing a narrowing, and if the battleground state polls tighten up, then I'll believe it. Until that happens, I am just throwing this out there for discussion. What happens at tomorrow's debate may change things a bit, but unless something dramatic happens in the debate I can't imagine it alone making a huge difference. Obama was declared the winner by many in the last debate, but expectations in that first debate were rock bottom for Obama. Now he is going in with higher expectations. It will be interesting to see what happens. A strong McCain debate performance, and his recent decision to take off the gloves, along with the fact the MSM is finally, after two years, beginning to report some of Obama's controversial background, could make a difference, but it will be several days before we know.


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Comments (5)

The CBS poll was pretty acc... (Below threshold)
Mitchell:

The CBS poll was pretty accurate in 2004.

Some of these polls are crap, though. Geraghty over at National Review's Campaing Spot has breakdown on some of the odd weighting--one Va. poll had a 39-25 Dim/Rep. 2004 vote was 39-35 Rep.

With the MSM pulling fast ones all over the place, you have to look under the hood. It's like a lawyer joke, e.g. "after shaking hands, count all your fingers."

FWIW, the Reuters/CSpan/Zog... (Below threshold)
_Mike_:

FWIW, the Reuters/CSpan/Zogby Tracking shows Obama by +3 and the Democracy Corps (D) shows Obama by +3.

Having said that, I do think this is still up for grabs (ignoring any ACORN stunts).

I dont pay attention to t... (Below threshold)
mf:

I dont pay attention to the polls.
It's like the stock market and 401K.
It's the outcome (/when I'm ready to retire) I'm interested in. The inbetween stuff is noise.

These polls are not to be ... (Below threshold)
Jamie Reinhold:

These polls are not to be trusted, even if they look better for us. I've been studying a lot about the internals, and I for one do not trust these polls. I believe if McCain is within 5 in the battleground states the weekend before the election, he will win. Ari Kaufman has a really good breakdown October 3, and the people on the ground seem to confirm what he is saying.Check out pajamas media dot com "It's All Coming Down to a Few States..."

Looking at the poll democra... (Below threshold)
retired military:

Looking at the poll democrats appeared to be way overrepresented.

As with just about any other poll from any MSM outlet I add about 5-7% to the republican side to remove the bias that is inherent from the MSM going in the tank for Obama.




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