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Battleground Poll: Dead Heat

Rick Moore's got the scoop. Go have a look at the chart and stop letting Obama supporters (to include nearly all print and broadcast media outlets) convince you that you might as well not show up. It's over when everyone has voted, not when everyone has reacted to the day's targeted message.

You listening Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada?

UPDATE: Are you listening, Pennsylvania? I'm talking to you, too. Jack "Marines are Murderers" Murtha has been talking to you, racists and rednecks that you apparently are. So maybe you have been listening if Obama's internal polling shows him up only by 2% while the rest of the media has him preordained. (Thanks to Wizbang readers and commenters.)


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Comments (33)

Expect this poll to go back... (Below threshold)
jpg:

Expect this poll to go back to -4 tomorrow. Anything better is a win
for McCain. A sample that was 55/45 McCain is about to drop off.

If the race was over (as Ob... (Below threshold)
_Mike_:

If the race was over (as Obama supporters would like for everyone to believe), the Obama campaign wouldn't be spending the huge chunk of change for a 30 minute Obama infomercial during prime time on 3 major networks (CBS, NBC and FOX).

Please read the following a... (Below threshold)
MDefl:

Please read the following and post on the front page if you think it is warranted. It is time to put an end to the msm's attempt to dampen GOP enthusiasm.

From Ace

Leaked Obama Internals Show Him Within Margin in Pennsyvania?
--Ace
So says a Koz Kid.

Apparently, Obama's internals were leaked to a radio talk show host in Scranton. they show Obama up by only 2 in PA.
Steve Corbett, a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, accidentally received a copy of an internal email sent by Grant Olin who heads the Wilkes-Barre headquarters of the Obama campaign. The email went to 627 Obama campaign volunteers in the Wilkes-Barre Scranton region, saying that Obama Headquarters reported an internal poll which shows that Obama is only 2 points up in Pennsylvania.

Sean Smith, who is heading Obama's Pennsylvania campaign, was interviewed by Steve Corbett via phone at 5:35 today to discuss this. He said that Grant "went rogue", and aknowledged that Grant was "reprimanded" for this.

...

"This is important because, if it is true, it undermines the argument that we have a substantial partyId advantage this year.

A partyId of at least +6 this year seems reasonable, as many pollsters are showing. Many rightwingers are arguing that the breakdown should be a push, like 2004, which is ridiculous. However the rumor of +2 in PA reinforces their argument. And that's the last hope they have left.

We need to get on this story as soon as possible before it spreads any further. I don't want them to have any hope left, Let's crush their spirits!"

I think the quote is from the radio host. Audio at Ace.

"president obama"2... (Below threshold)
peabody3000:

"president obama"

2 weeks...

Obama needs to cut his ties... (Below threshold)
Rob:

Obama needs to cut his ties to ACORN and their nation-wide voter fraud actions! http://tinyurl.com/6nra74

ACORN doesnt engage in regi... (Below threshold)
peabody3000:

ACORN doesnt engage in registration fraud, but they report it when they find it in the registrations they collect, just as they did in this recent case

and what kind of registration fraud does ACORN encounter? only the kind that the low-wage workers collect hoping for a bigger paycheck. no intent of any kind to cast fraudulent votes has been shown

sorry neocons, no scandal. just more mccain scare tactics, as learned from our war criminal president bu$h

Here are all the current na... (Below threshold)
mantis:

Here are all the current national polls (tracking and otherwise):

Rasmussen Reports - Obama 50, McCain 46 - Obama +4
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby - Obama 50, McCain 42 - Obama +8
Hotline/FD - Obama 47, McCain 41 - Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)* - Obama 51, McCain 44 - Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* - Obama 52, McCain 42 - Obama +10
IBD/TIPP - Obama 47, McCain 41 - Obama +6
Pew Research - Obama 53, McCain 39 - Obama +14
GWU/Battleground - Obama 48, McCain 47 - Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research - Obama 51, McCain 46 - Obama +5
CNN/Opinion Research - Obama 49, McCain 43, Nader 3, Barr 2 - Obama +6
ABC News/Wash Post - Obama 53, McCain 44 - Obama +9
Democracy Corps (D) - Obama 50, McCain 46 - Obama +4
Democracy Corps (D) - Obama 49, McCain 44, Nader 3, Barr 2 - Obama +5

If an Obama supporter pointed to the Pew poll as clear cut evidence that Obama is up nationally by double digits, what would your response be?

Btw, I think no one should not vote based on polls, Republican, Democrat, or otherwise. By all means, vote.

The Pew poll looks like it ... (Below threshold)
jpg7:

The Pew poll looks like it was meant to test why a "swing" voter
should not like McCain's "negative" strategy. The actual numbers on
registereds are: 42.4% solid Obama, 35.1% solid McCain, 22.6% swing.
That's a lot of swing. Now to get that to translate into the 4:1
anti-Obama ratio from the primaries...

So you can say Pew was 42/35 with RV if you want...

You can make up numbers if ... (Below threshold)
mantis:

You can make up numbers if you want, jpg7, but all I need to do is provide the link:

Barack Obama leads John McCain not only in overall support but also in the intensity of his support. A sizable plurality of 45% says they are voting for Obama and that there is no chance they will vote for McCain. McCain's "certain" support is much smaller: just 32% are certain to vote for him. Similarly, 36% say they strongly back Obama, while just 21% strongly support McCain.

And those swing voters:

While Obama holds a substantial lead in the poll, many voters remain persuadable. Nearly one-in-four (23%) are classified as swing voters, exactly the same percentage as Pew found two weeks before the 2000 presidential election - an election that, like this one, featured no incumbent in the race. However, unlike in 2000, committed voters today favor the Democrat by a significant margin (45% Obama, 32% McCain). Still, the proportion of swing voters is large enough to possibly change the election should they break overwhelmingly in a Republican direction. About one-in-ten voters (9%) say they are completely undecided at this point.

In any case, my point was not to argue the validity of the Pew poll, but to point out that picking the poll that shows the biggest support for your candidate while ignoring all other polls (the Drudge way), without offering any explanation as to why that poll is more valid, may make you feel nice, but it very likely doesn't reflect reality. Not that reality is something you guys have any interest in recognizing.

mantis: The numbers are not... (Below threshold)
jpg:

mantis: The numbers are not made up. The numbers: 2599 RV, 1101 Obama,
911 McCain, 587 Swing are straight out of the Pew report.

And it's not meant to be spin. The thing is that I think the hard
support percentages are trustworthy. The question is how each poll
drives the soft support percentages. That could explain the ridiculous
variance (-1 to -14) that we are seeing.

The trick is to turn a -7 hard support deficit into a win and the
Pew poll is showing a massive loss in soft support.

McCain was foolishly campai... (Below threshold)
Herman:

McCain was foolishly campaigning in Pennsylvania today. What does he think Pennsylvania is, something like South Carolina???? Ridiculous!!

Pennsylvania rejected Chimpy twice and we rejected Dole and Chimpy's father the last time Bush Sr. ran. And much of this was before we threw out a Republican Senator (Icky Santorum) and got ourselves a Democratic Governor. We Pennsylvanians ain't getting Caribou Barbie a job in DC!!!

***********************************************
Each day, conservatives, brings us closer, closer still to Judgment Day. You can try to run from it, you can try to hide, but you won't escape it -- it's coming just for you.

If obama does not win, what... (Below threshold)
mag:

If obama does not win, what will happen? Will all these people so in love with him do crazy things...I'm sure they will say the election was stolen.
But really, you can say one thing but remember the vote is total secret, only you know who you voted for. So, I do want McCain to win, it would not surprise if he does win. People say one thing, but often do another.
Right now to me it is a horse race.

Mantis, want to bet you mor... (Below threshold)
Zelsdorf Ragshaft III:

Mantis, want to bet you mortgage on the outcome of the only poll that counts. The one held in November? I think it will be on the 4th. If your communist buddy wins, you will not need your house anyway as you will be sent to the collective.

Herman, I think you've been... (Below threshold)

Herman, I think you've been delving too far into the Terminator world recently.

jpg,My apologies. ... (Below threshold)
mantis:

jpg,

My apologies. I couldn't find your numbers anywhere in that poll, and since they did ask about intensity of support and those numbers did not match yours, I assumed you had invented them. I was wrong to have done so.

The question is how each poll drives the soft support percentages. That could explain the ridiculous variance (-1 to -14) that we are seeing.

I agree, though there have been other problems with the Battleground poll, especially the fact that they don't weight by age (I'm looking over their numbers now, as they seem to have changes some of their methodology in the past couple of weeks - numbers at the link are a week old, btw). Still need to give Pew a closer look. In any case, I view both Pew and Battleground as probable outliers.

Mantis, want to bet you ... (Below threshold)
mantis:

Mantis, want to bet you mortgage on the outcome of the only poll that counts. The one held in November? I think it will be on the 4th. If your communist buddy wins, you will not need your house anyway as you will be sent to the collective.

So what's the bet? If McCain wins you pay my mortgage, and if Obama wins I get sent to "the collective"? It's a deal.

Just a bit curious about so... (Below threshold)
RicardoVerde:

Just a bit curious about some old polls. Didn't Obama lose some primary states where he polled 5-7% above Hillary?

when your party is up in th... (Below threshold)
rob:

when your party is up in the polls, it is a validation of your candidate's views and proof that his/her agenda is in line with the American public. When he's behind, the polls immediately lose legitimacy and are a byproduct of systematic manipulation or misrepresentation.

McCain hasn't had a lead in any meaningful poll in almost 2 months. Could it be that the American public has seen what he's selling and does not want to buy? Is it possible that, like Kerry in 2004, he is just the wrong man at the wrong moment?

Of course not, it's simply that the polls are skewed, Obama's spending like a drunken sailor and the media is under the guile of a charlatan's Svengali gaze. Whatever gets you through the next 4 years.

Don't forget what happened ... (Below threshold)

Don't forget what happened with Bush/Gore and Bush/Kerry. They both looked like impossibly uphill battles toward the end. GWB was elected both times because his supporters went to the polls and did their jobs! Do your job, everybody! Staying home this election day is for sissies.

Hey did anybody catch Rush ... (Below threshold)
Cockroach:

Hey did anybody catch Rush yesterday? He made a similar argument using the Gallup poll. According to the Gallup poll Obama was ahead by only 2 points!

Unfortunately, today's Gallup poll shows Obama ahead by 7 points. And its 10 points if you look at their expanded poll.

There is no poll that can p... (Below threshold)
Rndguy:

There is no poll that can properly and accuratly give the status of this year's race. Simply put there is no historical precident. That is why you are seeing such a spread of 1 to 14.

This is the first time an African-American has made it this far in the process. The only reference a person can use is the 7% (on average) overpolling that happened in the primaries with Obama and that is a stretch to make that fit the general election.
Either way, what we do know is that Obama's internal poll leaked today shows a 2% lead in PA. That is within the MOE and should be a sign that not all is well in the Obama camp. 2% lead in a state that was and has been solid blue for the last four elections. That has to have Obama worried. Without PA Obama doesn't have a chance even if CO and NM go blue and McCain holds every other red state Bush won in 2004.

PA is telling...McCain woul... (Below threshold)
rls:

PA is telling...McCain would not be there now if his internals didn't show a likelihood of winning. DJ DRummond at Wizbang is a stat freak that has a tremendous knowledge of Polls. Go read his take.

Jack Murtha is going to giv... (Below threshold)
Jo:

Jack Murtha is going to give Pennsylvania to McCain.

Write him a thank you note. ;-)

No mantis, if McCain wins, ... (Below threshold)
Zelsdorf Ragshaft III:

No mantis, if McCain wins, and he should because the majority of Americans no matter what they say will not elect someone as far left as Obama is to the Presidency, You give me your mortgage payments. Should Obama win, I pay your mortgage. At least as long as I am gainfully employed. I intend to fight to the death any attempt to move me to a collective or yield my 2nd Amendment rights.

First Biden, now Murtha...<... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

First Biden, now Murtha...

Anyone else getting the feeling that some of the old guard Democrats aren't too eager to see Obama win?

With Murtha it might be the racial prejudice that he keeps accusing others of - but then again, it might not.

With Biden... well, maybe he's close enough to Obama to really see and evaluate the man. It might be he's going "Damn, I don't want to see this asshole winning. He'll REALLY screw things up." So you get 'interesting' comments about how Obama's not suitable for the job... from the VP pick! If that isn't a WTF sort of warning moment for ya, what WOULD be?

I can only hope and pray th... (Below threshold)

I can only hope and pray that most Americans still resent...DEEPLY...being told
"You MUST vote for Obama, or you are a RACIST!!"

Of course, if "The One" becomes Emporer, then NEXT time they will be able to TELL if we vote for "The One" or not...as those pesky 'secret ballot' things will be a thing of the past!

Voting booths are SO icky, ya know?

RE: Murtha, Biden and Obama... (Below threshold)
Steve Schippert:

RE: Murtha, Biden and Obama -

Said to a fe friends earlier today: "Funny thing. The more I listen to, read or watch the news, the more depressed I feel. The more I listen to the Obama campaign (including Murtha), the more confident I feel."

Here's hoping Pennsylvanians are listening to the campaign itself more than the news. Listening to Obama is less convincing to a swing voter than listening to communications experts in the media repackage him and sell him to them.

I'm in Colorado and I voted... (Below threshold)
COgirl:

I'm in Colorado and I voted yesterday. Wouldn't miss the opportunity. I don't believe the polling for what it's worth. Maybe my vote will make a difference.

So, see where McCain and Pa... (Below threshold)
Hestrold:

So, see where McCain and Palin are spending their week? Interesting. Now including Iowa. Oh and visiting Colorado too. (Didn't MSM tell us McCain gave up there?)

At this point in a campaign you go where you NEED TO GO!

even PA racists wont help t... (Below threshold)
nick:

even PA racists wont help the pathetic lying corrupt Palin/mccain ticket

campaign does NOT send poll... (Below threshold)
nick:

campaign does NOT send poll #s to volunteers!

you are such morons~!

Wow! According to some of t... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

Wow! According to some of these polls in 2004, Kerry was a sure thing. ww

Went to try to vote early y... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Went to try to vote early yesterday - the line was folded three times in front of the building. I'm thinking the pollsters are really calling this one wrong.




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