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NC Update

I pointed out in an earlier post that NC political campaign veterans Gary Pearce and Carter Wrenn both say Obama will most likely fall short in NC. According to Democratic pollster Public Policy Polling, Obama is doing great in the early voting, but McCain is making gains among those who have not yet voted:

The deciding factor for President in North Carolina could be the weather on November 4th. Barack Obama is banking a huge lead among early voters, 63-36, who account for about a third of the likely electorate. But John McCain is up 53-42 with folks who plan to vote between now and election day. A rainy day could be to Obama's considerable benefit.

The tightening over the last week can be tied back to North Carolina voters reverting more to their usual trends. Obama had pulled to within 55-39 with white voters, but McCain's advantage there is now back up to 60-36.

McCain is also doing a better job of peeling off Democratic voters now, up to 19% compared to 14% a week ago. The percentage of poll respondents listing the economy as their top issue is below 60% for the first time in six weeks and that may have some culturally conservative white Democrats back to voting on values issues instead of the economy.

Nonetheless Obama still leads on the strength of a 51-39 lead with independents, a 65-24 advantage with folks who didn't vote in 2004, and his customary strong support from black and young voters.

If they are right, this race is still anyone's to win in North Carolina. I really would not be surprised to see either outcome. As always, turnout, turnout, turnout is key.


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Comments (3)

I think that we will see ma... (Below threshold)
texasscott:

I think that we will see many more of these stories which will move towards McCain's (and America's) advantage. In addition, I believe that the polls we see are incorrect by design. I just look at it from my perspective: As a McCain supporter (even in TX) I dare not say too much at work due to the typical racist tag. You cannot have a sign or sticker without fearing for your personal property. So you kind of stay quiet about it. When pollsters reach some McCain supporters they are not used to being open about their choice. They may just say "undecided". Also, for me and many more McCain supporters is we are at work all day - pollsters are much more likely to get an Obama supporter with time on their hands to answer a million questions (I said more likely - it is not racist). We do not answer our phones at night (caller ID helps), but with kids we do not have the time to do this.

So I think there are many of us that are not being polled for many reasons......

After seeing what I've seen... (Below threshold)

After seeing what I've seen at the rallies, Lorie, I'd be shocked if Obama won NC.

Shocked.

I was in Asheville on Sunday for the Palin rally. Got there hours early but the crowd was already over 7000, and even though I waited to see, I didn't get in. But I was still in a crowd. Thousands didn't get in. Thousands. Two blocks full of people.

Asheville is very liberal due to the northern immigration. It's Heath Schuler territory.

I talked to the locals in line - they say the mtns are full of McCain/Palin signs. Obama in pockets.

Pardon the pun on the last sentence.

Be encouraged Lorie, If the Obots take NC it will be by crook.

Lorie, you and these poster... (Below threshold)
Tammy:

Lorie, you and these posters are just validating what I've suspected all along. The Obama supporters couldn't wait to get to the polls. Us for whom this is old hat are just waiting until the actual day. Nothing, ice storm, tornado, or even car accident (as long as I'm breathing) will keep me from voting. I'll make the ambulance stop there. LOL I've been telling my friends who have been hand-wringing to please stop it; the polls are skewed on purpose and don't be bupkiss. Everyone just get out there and do your thing on November 4th.




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