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Demographic Thresholds

I have been saying all along, that McCain was closer to Obama in the election campaign than the polls were indicating. However, I have been doing so by focusing on party affiliation, the demographic most fiddled with by the polls. Those critiquing my analysis have sometimes pointed to internal demographics which show problems for McCain. With just a week until the end of the season, let's see where the thresholds for election are, with regard to demographics. That is, what is the minimum performance in each area which was enough to get the win? Here are the numbers:

In 1992, Clinton won with just 41% of the vote from male voters. Right now Barack Obama is tracking 40% of the male vote in Battleground, and 47% in Gallup, while McCain is tracking 44% in Battleground and 46% in Gallup. Before I go further, I want to note that the party skewing could affect this numbers, and also that the numbers in a poll may end up being a bit different in the actual election results. Therefore, all we are doing is seeing whether the candidates are roughly where they want to be.

In 1968, Nixon won with just 43% of the vote from women voters. Right now Obama is tracking 54-55% with Battleground and Gallup, while McCain is tracking 35-39%. As I said, however, while this is a problem area it may be artificially low, as republican women have much higher support for McCain than do democratic women polled.

In 1992, Clinton won with just 39% of the White vote. Right now Obama is tracking 39-44% with White voters, while McCain is tracking 47-50% with White voters.

In 2000, Bush won with just 9% of Black voters. Right now Obama is tracking 82-91% with Black voters, but McCain is tracking only 3% with Black voters in both Battleground and Gallup. It's very unlikely that McCain will reach the 9% mark, so either this measure will prove to be meaningless, or it will be a key demographic since Obama has locked it up.

In 1968, Nixon won with just 38% of the under-30 vote. Right now Obama is tracking 56-59% of that demographic, while McCain is tracking 29-38% with that group.

In 1968, Nixon won with just 41% of the 30-49 vote. Right now Obama is tracking 43-50% with that group while McCain is tracking 43-45%.

In 2000, Bush won with just 45% of the 50+ vote. Right now, Obama is tracking 35-45% with that group while McCain is tracking 44-50%.

In 1980, Reagan won with just 86% support from republicans. Right now McCain is tracking at 83-92% from republicans.

In 1992, Clinton won with just 82% support from democrats. Right now Obama is tracking at 80-89% from democrats.

In 1960, Kennedy won with just 5% support from republicans. Right now Obama is tracking at 5-7% support from republicans.

In 2000, Bush won with 10% support from democrats. Right now McCain is tracking at 7% support from democrats (PUMA influence not known).

In 2000, Bush won with 42% support in the East. Right now Obama is tracking at 52-58% and McCain is tracking at 35-36% in the East.

In 1992, Clinton won with 44% support in the Midwest. Right now Obama is tracking at 46-52% there and McCain is tracking at 37-39% in the Midwest.

In 1968, Nixon won with 38% support in the South. Right now Obama is tracking at 36-42% there, while McCain is tracking at 51% support in the South.

In 2000, Bush won with 47% support in the West (Clinton won with the same level in 1992). At this time Obama is tracking at 44-54% in the West, while McCain is tracking at 38-40% support.

As I wrote at the beginning, these numbers are comparing poll numbers to election results, and at this time in 2004 both Bush and Kerry were more than 5 percentage points away from their final results in many categories. The undecideds play a key role in the final tallies, and they will do so again this year. Also worth noting at this time are comparisons in these additional demographics:

Urban voters: 55-31 Obama
Suburban voters: 48-39 McCain
Rural voters: 41-40 Obama or 44-40 McCain depending on the poll

Single voters: 61-24 Obama
Married voters: 47-39 McCain

And finally, for some reason no major poll seems to be releasing any internal demographics for Asian voters. Sure, we're talking between 1 and 2 percent, but in some places they could matter.


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Comments (11)

Of course, "Asian" voters c... (Below threshold)
Herman:

Of course, "Asian" voters can't vote in our election, but "Asian-American" voters can. If Asian voters could vote in our election, they would go overwhelmingly for ObamaMessiah: see for example, this video from the hula dancers of Obama, Japan:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/28/obama-japan-goes-crazy-ov_n_138646.html

(And, don't worry, Asian-American voters will be giving John McCain very few of their votes)

Is 1992 and Clinton an appr... (Below threshold)

Is 1992 and Clinton an appropriate set of comparison stats? Didn't Ross Perot mess up those numbers?

You just might be surprised... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

You just might be surprised, Herman. I hear things, at least here in Houston, that suggest the Asian vote (Asians able to vote in US elections are by definition American; I choose not to hyphenate people) is split - the kids like the hip Obama, the adults prefer the sane McCain.

DJ, what is the skew toward... (Below threshold)
Jon S.:

DJ, what is the skew towards Dems in the two main polls you use in this post, Battleground and Gallup? My sense is that for both polls, and many others, it is well outside the historic voting patterns of even to +3 Dems.

Ok, now lets go for a real ... (Below threshold)
Mycroft:

Ok, now lets go for a real demographic.

Do you have enough information to track "Challenger vs the price of gas".

I think that would be an interesting demographic.

"Asians able to vote in US ... (Below threshold)
Herman:

"Asians able to vote in US elections are by definition American; I choose not to hyphenate people" -- DJ Drummond

COMPLETELY IDIOTIC to the max. Would you, DJ, call John McCain a "European," his ancestors hailing from Europe (most likely Scotland)? YES OR NO, DJ??? "Hey, John, did you know you're a European?" -- is this what you would say to him if you met him? How do you think he would respond? What's the matter, cat got your tongue, DJ? Or maybe when you take a likely rare trip to the inner city, you think to yourself, "My god, there are Africans everywhere!" Is this how your thinking works, DJ?

If for some strange reason you wish to avoid using the term, Asian-American, then you should use "Americans of Asian ancestry," as your teachers should have taught you. (It's sad, the people in the red states getting inferior education).

1) Democrats for McCain. Wh... (Below threshold)
Therese:

1) Democrats for McCain. When Kerry lost the election, he didn't have a group like the Hillary Voters for McCain campaigning against him. I believe that this faction has been strongly underestimated and ignored by the media. If you don't think they are active, go to Hillbuzz - www.hillbuzz.wordpress.com

2) Naturalized Citizens. No one breaks out the voting patterns of naturalized citizens, but I believe this group will be strongly pro-McCain. I hadn't given much thought to them until I saw a post from a woman who became a citizen here after leaving another country that had Socialism. This woman was very worried because she experienced it first hand and was pleading for people to vote McCain. There are more like her. If anyone knows how dangerous Obama's Socialism is, it is these people.

3) Fear. There are people who are actually more afraid this year of being open about their support for McCain. Why? a) Obama people will call you a racist. b) If you're in a union, there could be retribution at your job and c) Getting into a vocal and potentially violent argument with an Obama supporter. More than any year I have ever seen, this election has violent undertones to it that are making some people remain quiet. They'll make their voices heard in the ballot box when they vote for John McCain.

4) Palin Enthusiasm. I don't care what the liberal media is telling you, Republicans are very excited about Palin. She has energized the party, and the more the media attacks her, the more she rallies everyone around her and the party. There was not this kind of enthusiasm for Bush four years ago. I expect turnout to be much higher, in fact, in record numbers for Republican voters.

5) Socialism and Redistribution of Wealth. This is scaring the heck out of a lot of people! Americans don't want this and this has become a rallying point for people to get out to vote to make sure that McCain/Palin win.

Never underestimate the American spirit! We love our country and its ideals. We aren't going to let Obama the Socialist and his media cohorts ruin the country.

In 1992, Clinton was electe... (Below threshold)
Eric Bradley:

In 1992, Clinton was elected with 43% of the vote in a three-way race. This is what makes your analysis flawed this time (it is usually pretty good). Sen. Hussein can do MUCH better than Clinton 92 with every demographic and still lose badly in this two-way race. Which is what is going to happen.

TRIPE!... (Below threshold)
bernie:

TRIPE!

annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd</i... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd right on cue, Herman skids off the race track, crashes over the cliff, plummets in a fireball towards the sea full of sharks below ...
...
...
...
and wonders why the other drivers did not follow him.

Herman has seen the polls a... (Below threshold)
Jo:

Herman has seen the polls and he's nervous. It makes him edgy. Lol.




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