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Purported former Hillary Staffer on Team Obama 'Comes Clean'

Taken with a grain of salt, as must all anonymously submitted tidbits, RedState has posted an anonymous submission that purports to be one of the few HillTeam staffers picked up by Camp Obama, and she lays out the 'weaknesses' of Obama. Disaffected and unhappy, the "female grad student in my 20's, and a registered Democrat" apparently offers up some information that McCain-Palin supporters should consider as the relentless assault on their enthusiasm continues: What you were never intended to know in this election.

4 - The Bradley Effect. Don't believe these polls for a second. I just went over our numbers and found that we have next to no chance in the following states: Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire and Nevada. Ohio leans heavily to McCain, but is too close to call it for him. Virginia, Pennsylvania, Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa are the true "toss up states". The only two of these the campaign feels "confident" in are Iowa and New Mexico. The reason for such polling discrepancy is the Bradley Effect, and this is a subject of much discussion in the campaign. In general, we tend to take a -10 point percentage in allowing for this, and are not comfortable until the polls give us a spread well over this mark. This is why we are still campaigning in Virginia and Pennsylvania! This is why Ohio is such a desperate hope for us! What truly bothers this campaign is the fact that some pollsters get up to an 80% "refuse to respond" result. You can't possibly include these into the polls. The truth is, people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for. The vast majority of these respondents are McCain supporters. Obama is the "hip" choice, and we all know it.

With such things as the Missouri Truth Squad comprised of sitting prosecutors, warnings of riots if Obama loses, and a candidate who has ugred his followers to "get in their faces" and confront McCain supporters, why ever would people be afraid to respond to a call?

Perhaps stories like the woman in Texas who had the Secret Service thrown at her after an Obama campaign worker lied and said she threatened to kill Barack Obama. Or the attempted public destruction of Joe "The Plumber" Wurzelbacher, driven by Ohio state employees digging in official records for dirt fed to the media.

There is no argument that Obama supporters are forthright and not hesitant. But McCain supporters? The concept as presented has merit, whether the anonymous submission comes from who it claims to come from or not.


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Comments (16)

Somehow, I think a lot of p... (Below threshold)
epador:

Somehow, I think a lot of people will be listening to Nora Jones' election lament come Wednesday. I'm just not sure if they'll be red or blue-blooded.

I'm always skeptical about ... (Below threshold)
Randy R:

I'm always skeptical about the authenticity of these alleged insider posts from disaffected Obama campaign insiders, although everything in it sounds plausible. I do tend to think that the polls are extremely unreliable this time for a number of reasons: the Bradley Effect, the PUMAs, the oversampling of Democrats, the potential that blue-collar union workers are being less than honest about who they're voting for, and the reluctance of some demographics to talk to pollsters.

We'll find out on Tuesday. I still think we may be in for a shocker.

I don't buy it, mostly beca... (Below threshold)

I don't buy it, mostly because it's too pat, but also because no insider refers to their own means of spreading spin as "misinformation networks." This is particularly true of lefty groups, and Obama's campaign qualifies, who learned from their drubbings during the Cold War what you could and couldn't say without losing support.

I will say this. I have alw... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

I will say this. I have always voted early. I voted this morning. I have attempted to do this three times this week but the LINES WERE TOO LONG. I got at the poll this morning at 6:30 and I was 50th in line. The republicans are turning out big time. I think the base is energized and that is what tipped it in 2004. Too close to call. That is for sure. ww

Here's a post from Hillbuzz... (Below threshold)
Therese:

Here's a post from Hillbuzz that talks about "Three Things the Obamamedia will do to suppress Republican turnout and help Obama."

It's very good and we see it unfolding now.

http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/three-things-the-obamedia-will-do-to-depress-republican-turnout-and-help-obama/

As far as I'm concerned, th... (Below threshold)
Jeff Blogworthy:

As far as I'm concerned, the true "Bradley Effect" is the fictitious lead given to all Democrats in the polls in order to manipulate public opinion. It has nothing to do with race.

80% refusing to respond is ... (Below threshold)
hyperbolist:

80% refusing to respond is not abnormal for telephone surveys. When I design a sample for a phone survey, I have to assume that at least three quarters of people contacted will not complete the interview, and most will simply hang up (politely or otherwise).

Not sure this person knows all that much about this sort of research...

Talk about a Banana Republi... (Below threshold)
Captain America:

Talk about a Banana Republic, people are afraid to even voice who they favor if it's not Obama (D-ACORN).

No wonder guns sales are booming (no pun intended).

I thought the Bradley Effec... (Below threshold)
Captain America:

I thought the Bradley Effect pertained to people no voting for the black candidate.

What I see here is the Thuggery Effect.

I live in OH and pollsters ... (Below threshold)
Peter Foxtrott:

I live in OH and pollsters called me twice and I hung the phone on them.
BTW, I am for McCain. So this article must be true, thank god,

80% "refuse to responds" wo... (Below threshold)
Randy R:

80% "refuse to responds" wouldn't be a problem as long as that percentage is relatively equal across different demographics and party affiliations, but it almost certainly isn't. For example, if some age groups are less likely to respond than other age groups that will skew the poll toward the preference of the age group that is more likely to respond. The same thing is true if Democrats are more likely to respond than Republicans.

The polls sponsored by news organizations like CBS and the New York Times really seem to be out of whack with other poll organizations. It's no secret how conservatives feel about the media so I'm wondering if the pollsters identify the sponsors of the poll up front. Telling a conservative that you're polling for a CBS/New York Times poll seems like a good way to insure a hang-up.

"Not sure this person kn... (Below threshold)

"Not sure this person knows all that much about this sort of research..."

The fact is, most people don't know that the non-reply rate is so high. So mentioning it doesn't mean she doesn't know. Only that it's pertinent and should be taken into consideration.

The part of that section that I would argue with is when she says "people are afraid to let people know who they are voting for." I don't think they're afriad. I think they're annoyed and figure it's no one's business. I've heard too many times that people complain about the wording of the questions and the caller has even gone so far as to argue with the recipient of the call. These days I just don't answer unknown calls because I resent the prying nature.

I have, in the past, answered such calls and if it was automated, I'd go so far as to listen to the first question. If I didn't like it, then I hung up. If it was a live person, I hung up right away.

Colorado is a toss up? Gee,... (Below threshold)
jmc:

Colorado is a toss up? Gee, I bet McCain feels like a real jackass for pulling out.

Does any other site have th... (Below threshold)
Paul_In_Houston:

Does any other site have the full post (not just a link to it)?

Attempts to access ANYTHING from Red State time out. No response from their server. This seems to have been happening all day today.

Colorado is a toss... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:
Colorado is a toss up? Gee, I bet McCain feels like a real jackass for pulling out.
Mitt Romney is campaigning for McCain and other Republicans in Colorado Springs on Saturday. http://www.rockymountainnews.com/news/2008/oct/31/mitt-romney-obamas-campaign-state/
Yeah, this post ended up na... (Below threshold)

Yeah, this post ended up nailing it.




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