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Ohio Republican Turnout Very High

Jim Geraghty shares from Ohio, for what it's worth.

George Bush carried Darke County, Ohio, 18,306 to 7,486 with 70 percent turnout. I'm hearing some predictions that turnout there could reach 80 percent this year.

Bush carried Warren County 68,037 votes to 26,044 with 76 percent turnout. I'm hearing that turnout is expected to be higher there, too.

The sense among some GOP folks on the ground is that the turnout in heavily African-American precincts in some of Ohio's cities has been light today, as of midafternoon, because of so many partaking of early voting. They see that as a reasonably good sign, that the Obama get-out-the-vote operation has hit its limit. These sources have been telling me for a few weeks now that they think McCain will overperform Bush's 2004 performance and that the Republican candidate's margin of victory will be greater than the two percent four years ago.

I've felt confident about Ohio, sans fraud, for some time. In the past 10 days, I have had the same sense about Pennsylvania. Virginia has worried me considering the massive demographic shift in NOVA. However, Jim also noted some anecdotal info from Virginia where the McCain campaign has shared that they are quite pleased with the turnout in key areas vital to Republicans.

I expect the exit polls to soon tell us that Obama has a 37% lead. Laugh. Remember that conservatives are far less inclined to stop and take a poll and that exit pollsters are generally in high population centers already weighted heavily Democrat. Whatever the exits say, they are about as valuable as a comic strip. This will be close. Exit numbers will not be.


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Comments (9)

SteveWhy do you th... (Below threshold)

Steve

Why do you think PA might go McCain? I haven't seen evidence of a major shift yet. Would appreciate your thoughts.

I agree on Ohio mainly because of my proximity to the state.

HughS,<a href="htt... (Below threshold)
Sheik Yur Bouty:

HughS,

Read this.

There's some interesting analysis for you considering Ohio borders PA.

I don't think anyone should... (Below threshold)
RA:

I don't think anyone should place too much trust in exit polls. Even though none of us like to wait for the real results, that's pretty much what we have to do. People should, IMO, just go out and vote as they see fit.

Thanks Sheik Yur Bouty... (Below threshold)

Thanks Sheik Yur Bouty

Will do.

Is it my imagination or are... (Below threshold)
retired military:

Is it my imagination or are the trolls taking a holiday today? Maybe they are too concerned to show up and spread their usual swill.

I voted for McCain in NE Oh... (Below threshold)
brainy435:

I voted for McCain in NE Ohio today. Polls close here in 45 min. Will be an interesting night.

Trolls are busy voting. It ... (Below threshold)
Steve Schippert:

Trolls are busy voting. It takes all day to travel to seven different polling places to vote so many times.

HughS - As I said,... (Below threshold)
Steve Schippert:

HughS -

As I said, I just "felt that way." I think there has been so much of the charges of racism and calling them rednecks instead as some sort of apology, that this quietly simmers among the non-Philly central and western PA voters.

We'll see. McCain camp is calling PA too close to call at the moment. Both candidates weren't working PA so heavily because it wasn't.

SS beat me to it. ;-)... (Below threshold)
epador:

SS beat me to it. ;-)




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