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President Obama's Unemployment Promises

The president's apologists at The New York Times are putting the best possible spin on the administration's economic forecasting failures. That the Times is even writing about this subject indicates how vulnerable the Obama administration (and its state run media enablers) must be feeling about the worsening recession:

In the weeks just before President Obama took office, his economic advisers made a mistake. They got a little carried away with hope.

To make the case for a big stimulus package, they released their economic forecast for the next few years. Without the stimulus, they saw the unemployment rate -- then 7.2 percent -- rising above 8 percent in 2009 and peaking at 9 percent next year. With the stimulus, the advisers said, unemployment would probably peak at 8 percent late this year.

The only thing the Obama administration got carried away with last January and February during the stimulus "debate" was dissembling. The one trillion dollar plus stimulus bill was rammed through with all manner of half truths, camouflaged pork and flawed forecasting. The promise of keeping unemployment below 9% this year was just another song to placate the few among the Hope and Change chorus that might actually ask a serious question about fiscal policy. Now that we are six months into this disaster of Obama/Pelosi/Reid fiscal policy it merits asking when this administration will be held accountable to some real results.

Given the precise targeting of employment and GDP growth metrics used by President Obama in February to sell the stimulus legislation, voters should demand precise answers to the following questions:

  1. Where will unemployment peak?
  2. When will unemployment peak?
  3. If GDP growth does not hit the Obama forecast of 3.2% next year what will be the amount of the budget deficit based on growth levels ranging from 0% - 2%?
  4. What will be the budget deficit next year if GDP growth is negative?

As with any monumental piece of spending legislation, congressional Democrats are hoping voters forget the promises made while the bill was being sold to them. Maybe the loss of another 400,000 jobs just in the month of June will serve as reminder to voters that Washington is completely out of touch with a recession that is gutting the private sector. The prospect of tax increases for individuals and businesses to pay for the poorly targeted, half baked stimulus legislation will further diminish the prospects for employment recovery. One theme that should predominate in Tea Party gatherings this 4th of July weekend is that the historic Obama deficits are job killers.


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Comments (19)

Can you imagine the libnut ... (Below threshold)
GianiD:

Can you imagine the libnut and media outrage of a conservative came up with the BS term 'created or saved'.

The spin the MSM is placing... (Below threshold)
Hermie:

The spin the MSM is placing on the June unemployment figures, is that the amount of lost jobs is 'slowing'; proving that the economy is on the right track.

I really wish unemployment ... (Below threshold)

I really wish unemployment had peaked before last Thursday. I hate having to look of a job!

I really hate having to look for a job in The One's pseudo socialist utopia.

onedesigner.mu.nu

Hugh:Don't ask quest... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Hugh:
Don't ask questions. The 'experts' don't have answers. Also, don't forget that this new "intelligent" administration was going to hit the ground running. Probably populated by some of the same "experts" who said that Iraq was lost and that the surge would not work. Yep, bestest administration ever. 2012 cannot come soon enough. Any bets that Barry won't play the race card BIG TIME then?

and the GOP is missing yet ... (Below threshold)

and the GOP is missing yet another wonderful opportunity... why isn't the GOP pushing to junk Obama's ineffective stimulus and to replace it with something more effective and quick acting?

the weakness of Obama's stimulus bill is not, as the GOP has thought, in the size of the bill, its complexity nor the extent of pork contained in it... the public just doesn't care about those points (at least not enough to reach critical mass). Its weakness is that it isn't working... and as such, it needs to be junked. This is a concept that the public can rally around.

Its weakness is th... (Below threshold)
Eric:
Its weakness is that it isn't working... and as such, it needs to be junked.

The problem for the Republicans is two fold. First, they can't just call for it to be junked without having a reasonable replacement plan.

Second, they need to be able to communicate that plan to the American people. Right now the media is basically embargoing anything from the Republican party unless it is a scandal.

"and the GOP is missing ... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

"and the GOP is missing yet another wonderful opportunity... why isn't the GOP pushing to junk Obama's ineffective stimulus and to replace it with something more effective and quick acting?"

Think of it as aversion therapy. You can tell a kid he'll get sick from eating too much candy, but he won't believe you until it actually happens. It's been pretty clear worldwide that unrestrained government entitlements, control, and spending aren't good for the economies of the countries involved - but the 'progressives' knew better, and would do it right this time.

So, think of it as a chocoholic scarfing down a five-pound block of the best dark chocolate, following it with a gallon of chocolate milk. The Democrats aren't going to stop until they literally can't grab and eat another bite.

The Republicans are kind of going "Okay, YOU say you're not going to puke... but you're already turning green. You sure you really want to top things off with a pound of Reese's Peanut Butter Cups?"

And a whole lot of people are watching from the sidelines. It's going to be ugly, it's going to be messy, it's going to be fast when it hits, and it's going to be hell to clean up. And it's going to be memorable to the extreme.

And the Democrats aren't going to be able to disavow it - because their sticky fingerprints are all over it.

I don't think it'll happen a second time.

Hopefully the Republican Pa... (Below threshold)
Eric:

Hopefully the Republican Party isn't standing in front of the that kid when all of that chocolate comes back out.

Hermie: "The spin the MS... (Below threshold)

Hermie: "The spin the MSM is placing on the June unemployment figures, is that the amount of lost jobs is 'slowing'"

Reporter: "Is the victim still bleeding?"
Detective: "The bleeding has slowed."
Reporter: "Uh, is the victim still ALIVE?"
Detective: "Technically."

TV Guide Pick of the Day!</... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:

TV Guide Pick of the Day!

CBS Wed, Jul 1

11:35 PM Late Show With David Letterman *New*
Denzel Washington; the Jonas Brothers. Also: Al Franken and Tina Fey present the Top 10 list.

The Dems remind me of the s... (Below threshold)
Stan25:

The Dems remind me of the spoiled girl in the movie Willie Wonka and the Chocolate Factory. She whined and moaned that she was not getting the best of everything. Well guess what, when she got the very things that she wanted, she was still not satisfied. That is the way the Dems are acting now. They will finally get too much and the Oompalas (the American people) will wheel them out of the arena.

Garbage in, garbage out. Th... (Below threshold)
Trajan:

Garbage in, garbage out. This is the mantra
of the computer age. Should be the mantra of
our political age. Obama in, problem solved?
P.T. Barnum was a genius.

Humpty Obama sat on a wall
Humpty Obama had a great fall
.....but you'll never hear it in the news.

Our forefathers left us wit... (Below threshold)
Trajan:

Our forefathers left us with an estate. That
estate has grown, under their constitutional
legacy to what it is today. We've had executors
through the years that have husbanded its
wealth, others that have squandered some of it.
But NEVER have we handed it over to a cabal
that wants to dissolve the estate in toto and
redistribute it to enablers of the current
office holder. If this happens, it a one-time
event from which the estate NEVER recovers.
It's like a quick, unbelievable high for this
one leader. But the next morning always comes.
...as does the day (and the generation) after
that.................

"Al Franken and Tina Fey"</... (Below threshold)
LaMedusa:

"Al Franken and Tina Fey"

How about that. Two political impersonators in one night!

The horse's ass and its res... (Below threshold)
epador:

The horse's ass and its result, LaMedusa, that's all.

Any bets that Barry won'... (Below threshold)
drjohn:

Any bets that Barry won't play the race card BIG TIME then?

Did I mention that he's black?

Can you imagine the libn... (Below threshold)
drjohn:

Can you imagine the libnut and media outrage of a conservative came up with the BS term 'created or saved'.

Journalism died the moment Obama uttered those words and they went without challenge.

I went ballistic when I heard them. I still cannot believe anyone doesn't ask exactly how one measures "created or saved." There could be only 3.5 millin jobs left in the country and Obama could claim his prediction to have been correct.

Obama needs to contribute o... (Below threshold)
914:

Obama needs to contribute one favorable sign to the unemployment dielmna He created

He should sacrifice His own job.

I keep hearing posters here... (Below threshold)
Nashville_fan:

I keep hearing posters here and members of the media saying:

"President Obama said that if the economic stimulus bill was passed, unemployment would not go over 8%."

One small problem with this statement . . . it is simply NOT TRUE.

As a public service, and since the media seems incapable of using "the Google", I have done some RESEARCH to see WHAT is fueling this . . .

Here is what I found:

In a report issued by his economic advisors on January 10, 2009 (BEFORE Barack Obama was even sworn in as President), economic advisors Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein issued a report titled "The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan",

The VERY FIRST WORDS in the report are these:

"A key goal enunciated by the President-Elect concerning the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan is that it should save or create at least 3 million jobs by the end of 2010. For this reason, we have undertaken a preliminary analysis of the jobs effects of some of the prototypical recovery packages being discussed. Our analysis will surely evolve as we and other economists work further on this topic. The results will also change as the actual package parameters are determined in cooperation with the Congress."

http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf

Got that? The report is a PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS of a PROTOTYPICAL PACKAGE which will EVOLVE. Could it be stated any more clearly than that?

Now, here is the statement that has somehow been taken out of this PRE- PRESIDENTIAL report and put into the President's mouth, as if by magic:

"First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus, the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of the plan.

Second, as emphasized above, there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates: both the impact of the package on GDP and the relationship between higher GDP and job creation are hard to estimate precisely. . ."

Once again, it is CLEARLY STATED that these are ESTIMATES and LIKELY to be incorrect.

So why is the media, and many commenters here, pretending like the President predicted definitively that the stimulus would keep unemployment under 8% when he NEVER DID?

The unemployment rate in January 2009 was 7.6%, so CLEARLY nobody in there RIGHT MIND thought that the Stimulus package was going to be able to hold it under 8%. The stimulus bill wasn't signed into law until mid February . . . the unemployment rate then was ALREADY 8.1%.

The bulk of the stimulus money has still NOT BEEN SPENT, so trying to decide how successful it has been is clearly a POLITICAL exercise, not an economic one.

I don't have problem with those who criticize the President's economic plans. But do so based on the TRUTH, not lies.




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