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A Clear Sign, But What Does It Say?

I have not written much at all about President Obama's Approval Ratings in the polls since he was inaugurated in January, but noting the recent trend it seems appropriate to do so now.

I have said many times that for me, the gold standard in opinion polling is the Gallup Organization. This is due not only to Gallup's long history, but also because Gallup follows a very consistent methodology and set of questions. This allows interested researchers the opportunity to track support within a poll over a period of time, to better gauge the actual cause and effect of his policies and decisions.

The people at Real Clear Politics provide a very useful resource, where general polling support can be easily tracked.

Looking at these polls, the following polls provide a track of Obama's job approval since January:

Gallup: 68% when sworn in, 56% now, loss of 12 points
Rasmussen: 62% when sworn in, 50% now, loss of 12 points
CBS/NYT: 63% February 22, 58% now, loss of 5 points
NBC/WSJ: 60% March 1, 53% now, loss of 7 points
Pew: 64% February 8, 54% now, loss of 10 points
NPR: 59% March 14, 53% now, loss of 6 points
FOX: 65% when sworn in, 54% now, loss of 11 points

In every case of long-term tracking, President Obama's levels of job approval are the lowest overall he has seen since taking office, across the board.

But a closer look shows the problem may be more serious, nothing to worry about, or paradoxically, both.

In addition to a high-level overview, the Gallup Organization also publishes support by demographic groups.

An examination of those 28 demographic groups, determined by gender, age, geographic region, race, education, wages, political affiliation and orientation shows that in 22 of 28 demographic categories, support for President Obama is at its lowest or tried for the lowest level since he took office. The six demographic areas where support for President Obama is not at its nadir, are Non-White voters (85% support highest on April 26, 75% lowest on April 5, presently at 79%), Black voters (96% highest on July 5, May 4, and March 8, lowest at 86% on January 25, presently at 95%), Hispanic voters (85% highest on April 26, 70% lowest on April 5 and March 22, presently at 72%), Voters making below $24,000 a year (76% highest on May 4, 66% lowest on June 21, presently at 68%), Republicans (41% highest on January 25, 20% lowest on July 12, presently at 21%), and Liberals (90% highest on June 28, May 31, May 24, and April 26, 83% lowest on January 25, presently at 86%). All of those demographics are relative minorities to the voting population at this time.

Even with the loss of support, however, President Obama still enjoys support levels above 50% across the board, indicating that his personal popularity is strong and the general theme of his administration is well-received. Therefore, it may be reasonable to consider the loss of support nothing more than a shaking out of the fair-weather support, and displaying a strong core of support for the President. That is, of course, assuming his numbers do not continue to fall.

It should, however, be noted that President Obama has lost significant support among major demographic groups. Between February 1 and July 26, President Obama lost twelve points of support from female voters, who were the dominant gender in the 2008 election. White voters made up 74% of the electorate in the 2008 election, and since taking office President Obama's support among whites has fallen sixteen points according to Gallup. The largest demographic age group in the 2008 election was the 30-49 age group; among this group President Obama has lost twelve points since taking office. Among moderates, the largest political philosophy demographic, President Obama has lost ten points since taking office. The South was the most important geographic region in the 2008 election, and among Southern voters, President Obama has lost twelve points of support since taking office. In the 2008 election, the largest demographic by education was the 'Some College' category, and in that category President Obama has lost fifteen points of support since taking office. And among voters earning between sixty thousand and ninety thousand dollars a year, again the largest demographic in their section, President Obama has seen his support fall by twenty points since taking office. The conclusion is unavoidable that, if this loss of support is not rebuilt and assuming the Republicans can present a credible candidate, that at this time President Obama has seriously damaged his re-election chances, since every dominant demographic group from the 2008 election has significantly reduced support for the President since his Inauguration.


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Comments (11)

The state of the economy wi... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

The state of the economy will ultimately determine Barry's fate. Given his devotion to socialism and incomprehension of basis economics, everything he does now until 2012 can only hurt. In 2012 you can look forward to his ramping up various villains (it will all be their fault), and it that fails, there's always the race card. Our 'affirmative action' president will blame everyone but himself. The only problem is all the damage he can do between now and 2012.

Dear Barry soetero,<p... (Below threshold)
codekeyguy:

Dear Barry soetero,

Awwwww! Sorry about that.

Mr Drummond:No one... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Mr Drummond:

No one would ever mistake you for an unbiased observer, and I don't think you claim to be one. But I do admire the fact that, when you post here, you're not just throwing out red meat. You actually write logical, well-thought-out pieces that are really food for thought. Thanks.

It would be interesting to see what the polling by demographics was in August of 2001, for comparison and contrast purposes. Any info on that?

Also, you write "...assuming the Republicans can present a credible candidate..."

I don't think that's a safe assumption at all. Who would they present? Palin? Jindal? Mitt Freaking Romney? Cryin' John Boehner? Certainly not Ensign or Sanford!

Yep. Hugo Chavez gets grea... (Below threshold)
jim:

Yep. Hugo Chavez gets great support from those at the bottom of the economic ladder too. Note that there are now more of them in Venezuela than there used to be not less as he promised.

Obama will be the same way.

A few more photo-ops of the... (Below threshold)
Trajan:

A few more photo-ops of the first family
working in the garden, some puff pieces
about Bo, Obama on the cover of the weekly
mags 200 more times and 100,000 Acorns
working the streets will do wonders. If
Pelosi is hit by an SF trolley, that could
be icing on the cake. This Obama is a
resiliant cuss, with the full weight of
the media behind him. And the guilt
of white America will spare him the axe.

Democrats, communists and ... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Democrats, communists and socialists love the poor, Jim. That's why they do what they can to create more of them. (And spout phrases like 'social justice' and 'equality of outcome' - simple slogans that, like crabs that keeo dragging each other back in a bucket, keep anyone from escaping their 'help'.

Republicans/conservatives love the rich - as the left accuses them - but they love them so much they want as many more of them as possible.

..Context... Republican Par... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

..Context... Republican Party approval/ disapproval rates continue in the tank, and the Dems even widen the gap from June. The NBC/WSJ July poll found that while Democrats as a party had a net positive rating of five points (42 percent positive to 37 percent negative), the GOP faced a 13-point deficit. Only 28 percent rated the Republicans positively; 41 percent rated them negatively.

Who cares about Repubs SCri... (Below threshold)
914_62:

Who cares about Repubs SCrickmore. Im wondering what the Conservatives are going to do in 2010?

Steve, what are you saying?... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

Steve, what are you saying? Americans hate democrats but not as much as republicans? Sounds juvenile. When the republican party runs a conservative candidate, there will be no problem. Even independents will move right. ww

Willie, if you actually rea... (Below threshold)
hyperbolist:

Willie, if you actually read the figure Steve cites, you would understand that a) Americans are lukewarm on the Democratic Party, but b) really hate the Republican Party.

So if in your mind a + b = juvenile, I think you're missing a bunch of other variables or have leapt prematurely to a conclusion without sufficiently robust premises.

Either way... not surprising.

"" ... for me, the gold sta... (Below threshold)
Brian Richard Allen:

"" ... for me, the gold standard in opinion polling is ... Gallup .... ""

That's both a shame and a good place to stop bothering with this piece. Given that the only even half-honest poll-takers are all over at Rasmussen.

And that only those too damned stupid to know they're being lied to and/or who are too damned mean-spirited and/or greedy to care and/or who are criminal aliens and/or felons and/or who are fascists or crypto-fascists, traitors and recidivists and/or who, in other words, Collective-istly comprise the "base" of the vast criminal organization its members and supporters prefer we call the "Democratic" potty could even wish to spin the reality.

Which is that the moronic marijuana-mumbling mobbed-up modified-Marxist Mussolini-modeled murtadd-Muslim mother's boy, Buraq Hussayn (AKA Barry) is on the skids.

And will, (before, in September of 2011, resigning "for health reasons" - his classical Clinical NarciSSism having kicked in) come November 2010, take more than 40 "Democratic" potty congress critters with him.

Brian Richard Allen
Lost Angeles - Califobambicated 90028
And the Far Abroad




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