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Looking Beyond The Summer Recess

On Tuesday September 8th Congress' official summer recess will be over. By then the Kennedy dirge will have ended and it will be back to business as usual in Washington. The summer recess this year has been a riot of black comedy and farce as Congressional Democrats, caught in flagrante delicto trying to sneak a massive healthcare takeover past voters, were met with wrath and scorn back home in their districts. The death of Senator Edward Kennedy has provided some much needed distraction for these Democratic congressmen, many of whom have refused to meet publicly with voters during the recess.

The Fall political season serves up a number of interesting possibilities, not least of which is the question of whether the Democrats and the Obama administration will moderate their goals or double down. Given the wide gap between Congressional Democrats and generic polls (which show Republican advantages) it would appear that Democratic leaders would without hesitation moderate their goals. However, generic polls are inherently poor indicators of public opinion because voters routinely despise all congressmen except their own. For voters to get truly agitated and throw overboard one of their own requires a set of political circumstances and economic conditions that are literally extraordinary, such as 1980, 1994 and 2006. Even with the successes of the Tea Party protests and the town hall anger of the past six months, it is uncertain if voter sentiment is sufficiently radicalized to "throw the bums out".

It appears that the tone deafness of Congressional leaders like Speaker Pelosi will continue unabated. Yet to be seen is the perfect storm of political events that would come together and bring about the demise of a politician like Pelosi, although the Charlie Rangel tax problems that continue to bleed out signal problems for not only the House Ways and Means Chairman but also Congress in general. Incidents like this can become a problem as the House Post Office/ Check Cashing scandal in the 1990's demonstrated. One thing is certain: among the unemployed, among the cash strapped businesses and consumers, among the Cap and Trade threatened industries and among the elderly there is a growing anxiety. It is palpable and recognizable. This concern that permeates the electorate will also prove resistant to the viral hope and change that infected the judgment of the electorate in 2008.


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Comments (23)

The state of the economy wi... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

The state of the economy will be the final arbiter come November 2010. If as predicted, another 2.3 million citizens join the rolls of the unemployed, there could well be a Democratic bloodbath. Given the track record of the administration so far, were I a Democrat I would not rely on a miracle come next October.

were I a Democrat I woul... (Below threshold)
jim m:

were I a Democrat I would not rely on a miracle come next October.

Miracle thy name is ACORN, SEIU, New Black Panther Party...

If the public replace the e... (Below threshold)
JustRuss:

If the public replace the entire legislative branch in the mid-terms I hope to see an impeachment. I just hope the current group doesn't force through a bunch of BS that will have to repealed but that might completely break the current economy.

Rest assured, this tiny break will not give any leeway to the Democrats. People will continue to be just as fired up over these issues.

I think even the Trolls in here have to be worried that the entire party is going to get kicked out of power.

One can only hope that Pres... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

One can only hope that President Ego demands Reid use the nuclear option. They MAY get a bill passed, but it will bring business in the Senate to a halt for the next 3 years.

I think enough people have ... (Below threshold)
MPR:

I think enough people have had enough of H&C but, to assume that liberals will give up and go away would be a mistake. Obamalala is where he is only because liberalism, like rust, never sleeps. The unicorn is out of the barn though on any legislation getting through without the public scrutiny Teddybearcare has received. This is why I think Cap and Trade will be DOA in the Senate with the economy in the cellar and no indication Obamalala will get religion soon. Immigration Reform? Say What?!! Despite how the elections go in 2010 a big issue is policies Obamalala and his Czars put in place. The radicals that Obamalala is appointing are there for one reason and one reason only. And that is to hinder any move away from the socialist, fascism that is strangling this country. Not to mention the judicial appointees that will legislate from the bench in favor of the liberal view.
2010 cannot come soon enough.

Impeachment and removal of ... (Below threshold)
JustRuss:

Impeachment and removal of all his "appointees". I would much rather have President Joe Biden running things, he at least would be entertaining and no threat with a republican majority.

I doubt McCain would have been any better, and Palin would have been too controversial to get anything through a democrat majority.

Say what they will about Bush, I can't imagine Al Gore or John Kerry being in charge. Believe it or not I actually liked Liberman even before he split.

Most of the 'stimulus' is s... (Below threshold)
davidt:

Most of the 'stimulus' is scheduled to be spent in 2010. Lets wait and see how that goes before making too many predictions about the 2010 elections.

The problem is that the wor... (Below threshold)
jim m:

The problem is that the worse it looks or 2010 the harder Obama is going to push for his agenda (Health Care, Cap & Trade, etc.). To the point of putting through tough legislation via reconciliation to avoid any debate in the Senate.

Really the hard part will be getting it through the House. Once that's done he can do an end around the Senate.

The only thing that will keep any of his legislation from passing will be fear of he public. The Dems have to fear the backlash enough that they will keep it bottled up in committee. If they don't then we are all sunk. It won't be stopped in the House or Senate. The problem is that the Dem leadership does not fear the public and will not stop applying he pressure.

I figure that they stand a pretty good chance of getting it all through. I don't like it, but I believe that's the case.

Good point, davidt. Three p... (Below threshold)
Occam's Beard:

Good point, davidt. Three points.

1) Actually a lot of the funds aren't even allocated for expenditure until 2011.

2) Spending, not matter how beneficial, takes some time to work its way through the economy and have an effect. It may already be too late to have a lot of impact by November 2010.

3) A lot of the spending is earmarked for crap (e.g., gay porno film festivals, Frisbee golf courses) that won't help the economy no matter when it's made.

4) These are Democrats making spending decisions. 'Nuff said.

davidt the so-called "stimu... (Below threshold)
Michael:

davidt the so-called "stimulus" is pork and nothing more...it is not going to stimulate anything except you.

The economy is not going to... (Below threshold)
kathie:

The economy is not going to budge while Cap and Trade, and Health Care are on the table. Even so, it is iffy that people feel safe enough to spend more then is absolutely necessary. There are still many bad things out there!

Nancy considers herself bul... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Nancy considers herself bullet proof with the idiots she has voting for her in San Francisco. Harry Reid is another matter. He already looks vulnerable in the 2010 election cycle. If Nevada tosses Reid like South Dakota tossed Tom Daschle Madame Pelosi may come to religion. It's one thing to talk 'sacrifice', it's another thing to find yourself a victim of it. Like they say in Chicago "ain't no percentage in it".

The issue with the stimulus... (Below threshold)
jim m:

The issue with the stimulus is not whether or not it is going to be used for anything useful. The real issue is that it will necessitate either bond issues or printing money. If the Chinese won't buy the bonds then we print the money. That's extremely inflationary.

The other problem is that if the Chinese won't buy the fed's bond auction then the Dem response will be to raise taxes. That's the only thing their small brains can think of to raise more money for the government. No matter that it will actually lead to lower tax receipts and a deeper recession. They will be in a full panic to raise taxes to cover their doubling down on their spending bet.

It's more than likely that the economy will be back in a serious recession by the first of the year. That brings me back to my earlier point: The more desperate that Obama, Pelosi, et al get the more likely they will be to ram legislation through no matter what the cost.

Overheard in a closed door ... (Below threshold)
JustRuss:

Overheard in a closed door Democrat meeting in 2011:

"I just don't understand, we have a 50% tax on everything and everyone, but nobody is working or buying anything. How are we going to pay for all of this?"

"Don't worry, we're the government. It's not like its real money anyway. Besides, the poor will thank us when we increase the minimum wage again."

[email protected], my point was th... (Below threshold)
davidt:

[email protected], my point was that the 'stimulus' was intended to bolster the Democrats' electoral chances, and that we shouldn't count Dem loses before they happen.

[email protected], good points. In reference to #3, it won't help the Dems much if spending on gay porno film festivals, frisbee golf courses, and other nonsense becomes a common topic of political conversation.

The more desperate that ... (Below threshold)
ODA315:

The more desperate that Obama, Pelosi, et al get the more likely they will be to ram legislation through no matter what the cost.

I agree Jim. They seem to have a list of issues to ram through, regardless of the consequences, before the end of Obama's first term and before 11/10 if possible.

For the issues not able to be passed legislatively he'll use his czars, repackage the failed legislation as executive orders, and implement via the backdoor with these stooges as the initiators (Justice Dept. vacating the Black Panther charges ring a bell?). He's smart and knows that mounting a legal challenge to his orders will be spendy and time-consuming and the shear volume of these he could create would be a problem resulting in many of them becoming entrenched. Just imagine the damage that would result if Cap&Tax, health "Insurance" reform, FCC "diversity" policies, and "emergency" control of the internet were all rammed thru via the backdoor before mid '10.

These would result in the most powerful executive branch in the history of the US, all while the legilative branch stood and watched.

In which case he might find... (Below threshold)
JustRuss:

In which case he might find a way to hide "emergency powers" where he could remain past his term. Doesn't matter if its an emergency of his own making or not.

The stimulus was less about... (Below threshold)
jim m:

The stimulus was less about bolstering the Dems future chances at the ballot box as it was payment to their friends for their current success.

The gamble of the stimulus is that it doesn't hurt the economy so much that it is still in the tank when the next election comes around.

Are you allowed to say "bla... (Below threshold)
Steve:

Are you allowed to say "black comedy"?

Isn't it remarkable that We... (Below threshold)
OLDPUPPYMAX:

Isn't it remarkable that We the People for whom Washington's minions supposedly WORK, must be so concerned--actually afraid--of what our elected officials might do to us??!! 537 people completely ignoring the will of the vast majority of 300 million. When will we put an end to this disgrace?

If this were happening in s... (Below threshold)
JustRuss:

If this were happening in some other country I would expect suggestions of violent uprising. But since it is in this country nobody wants to get caught saying it.

I really don't want to see violence.

There's nothing humorous ab... (Below threshold)
epador:

There's nothing humorous about it, #19.

I believe we may be witness... (Below threshold)
Grace:

I believe we may be witnessing a sea-change in politics. I have never, ever seen so many previously calm, accepting people get so fired up over political issues. This administration has finally poked the lion hard enough to get his attention and he doesn't like it.

I do not believe that the average tea-party goer is going to stop being concerned, involved and educated about what our politicians are doing for the forseeable future. They are angry and will not just go back to their complacent ways.




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