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Today's Elections

Those in the media are spinning hard in anticipation of Republican wins in some key races today. Many news reports will try to lead you to believe the outcome at the polls should be ignored and the focus should be on Republican divisiveness or that any Republican wins are outliers, with absolutely no significance or relation to the mood of the country as a whole. Don't believe it.

There are some close races that could go either way, but if Republicans do well today it will be significant and the President and Democrats in Congress know it. It will be very significant for those moderates in the Congress still deciding which way to vote on health care. They are looking at opinion polls and they are sticking their fingers up in the air to figure out which way the political winds are blowing. They should have a good idea when the polls close tonight.

Even if the GOP picks up some wins today, things could go either way in 2010. Obviously the more races won today the better for Republicans looking to next year, but a year is an eternity in politics. If you don't believe me, just ask President Obama.

Update: I have seen a lot of people quoting Public Policy Polling's projections on the NY-23 race. I don't know how accurate they will be, but thought the following quote from Tom Jensen on their blog was of note:

We think tonight will be very good for Republicans. Two of the main reasons for that are superior party unity and pretty overwhelming support from independents.

Ha! What I keep hearing from Democrats today is how Republicans are divisive and driving moderates and independents away in droves. PPP is a Democrat polling firm, but their analysis is very good (even when I don't agree with it, I find it informative and thoughtful). Evidently Jensen is not following the party line like those in the media are today. Instead Jensen is reading the poll results and they are undeniable.

In NY-23 despite the presence more or less of two Republican candidates on the ballot, Doug Hoffman is winning 71% of the GOP vote to Bill Owens' 67% of the Democratic vote. Hoffman leads Owens 52-30 with independents.

In New Jersey Chris Christie is getting 82% of the Republican vote while Jon Corzine is at 72% of the Democratic vote. Christie leads 52-29 with independents.

In Maine 77% of Republicans support the overturn of gay marriage while 71% of Democrats are opposed to it. Independents say they'll vote for it by a 52-46 margin.

In Virginia 94% of Republicans are for Bob McDonnell to 87% of Democrats for Creigh Deeds. McDonnell is up 63-33 with independents.

More than undeniable, for Democrats, the rates of independent support for the GOP candidates is devastating.

Update II: Tom Elia has the 2008 election results from New Jersey, Virginia and New York-23 for those who want to make comparison's with tonight's results.


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Comments (31)

There are some clo... (Below threshold)
jp2:
There are some close races that could go either way, but if Republicans do well today it will be significant and the President and Democrats in Congress know it.

Why?

The New York race, which seems to be your primary allusion in this post, hasn't had a Democrat since 1871, apparently. The fact that it's even close is already "significant" for Democrats. How is that "significant" for Republicans if a 100+ year tradition continues? The primary story seems to be that Republicans can't even field a decent candidate. Even New Jersey has a slew of Republicans with a long history of electing them.

I know the "everything is good for Republican" theory is probably strongly approved of here, but I just don't get the attitude towards these relatively unimportant elections. I suppose you guys are looking for a game changer. If they all lose I look forward to a story here describing how good it is for the party.

Wow. Lori writes about how ... (Below threshold)
iwogisdead:

Wow. Lori writes about how the libtards will be spinning the election results, and, right on cue, a libtard spins the election results.

Doug Hoffman: I have... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:


Doug Hoffman: I have good mentors here.

Glenn Beck: Wait, wait. Wait, wait. Are they mentors that will show...

Hoffman: I'm talking about you, Glenn.

jp2,I do see your po... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

jp2,
I do see your point, and I agree with it to an extent. However, everyone wants to be a winner and actually winning, to me, makes it more difficult for the press to spin the "dissension" within the Republican Party. For the Republicans to duke it out amongst themselves, unseat Scozzafava and support a more conservative candidate is a step forward to me for the party. To lose with that candidate the press will do its darndest to make it look like dissension leads to failure. To have that candidate win makes a much bolder statement and shows that the conservative message is becoming accepted in the mainstream. It is a start. Political resurgence nationally always begins locally. That strategy is not new.

Lest we be too caught up in... (Below threshold)
epador:

Lest we be too caught up in this side play within a play in NY23, I'm not sure whether it would be more appropriate to recommend ya'll reading Shakespeare's King Lear or the more recent Fool. I fear that steadfast conservatives will suffer Cordelia's fate sooner or later. Me, I favor having a bawdy good time while I still can. I vote for Moore.

We all know that the econom... (Below threshold)
Victory is Ours:

We all know that the economic state of the nation plays an important part in the outcome of elections. That is precisely why the right wing spins every bit of economic news to be bad news.

Even news like this - that Factory Orders rose again this last month - further signaling recovery in the manufacturing sector.

What happens today is not a predictor of what would happen 3 months from now - much less a year from now.

Vic

Vic, Your first and last se... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

Vic, Your first and last sentence are true. As for the in between, when the Republicans are in office, the Democrats spin good economic news into bad. That's politics.

Odd, I'm sure VIC, Adrian a... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Odd, I'm sure VIC, Adrian and jp2 would be dancing in the isles and shouting hosanna's to THE ONE if all three were a Democratic sweep. They would point to this as confirmation that the public endorses Team Barry and His programs.

Now that it's looking like the Democratic candidates will be rejected, well the election just doesn't mean that much.

Deeds is already being blamed for losing. Wasn't that Barry up on the stage with him?

Adrian, Yo, You ar... (Below threshold)
914:

Adrian,

Yo, You are obsessed with Glenn Beck

VIC,

"That is precisely why the right wing spins every bit of economic news to be bad news Even news like this - that Factory Orders rose again this last month - further signaling recovery in the manufacturing sector."

Yes factory orders rise monthly in China.

Did Adrian actually listen ... (Below threshold)
JustRuss IT1(SW) USN [retired]:

Did Adrian actually listen to Beck or did he read it. Because if you heard that segment you would know the whole statement was satire. There is surely truth said in jest, but he was not praising Beck as a mentor (though there would be nothing wrong with that).

As opposed to say, "Two of my favorite philosphers Mao Se Tung and Mother Teresa"...

The New York race, which... (Below threshold)

The New York race, which seems to be your primary allusion in this post, hasn't had a Democrat since 1871, apparently. The fact that it's even close is already "significant" for Democrats. How is that "significant" for Republicans if a 100+ year tradition continues?

for the record, these areas are trending liberal lately - the press continues to play up how 'upstate NY' is 'traditionally conservative' and all that, and it has been true in the past, but just to be clear, times change and that's why just having a democrat do well doesn't mean what you think it means - all it means is that conservatives are fleeing new york and democrats are moving north to replace them, it doesn't mean that conservatives are suddenly supporting democrats. that's why having a conservative do well against a democrat (well, 2 democrats actually) is significant - it means if he wins the independents are breaking conservative instead of liberal, which is, in fact, a noteworthy shift given the past 2 major election cycles when the opposite held true.

I would agree that the 23rd isn't as nationally 'indicative' of anything as much as both parties would like - it's more important as a wakeup call to the GOP elite, which is why conservatives are excited about it. really, VA isn't either, they have gone back and forth with both parties, but having the republican do well again does signal some independent shift from 2008 as well as a return to apathy by young and black voters perhaps. I can't see NJ as anything but a referendum on the current governor, really, though the GOP will play it up if they win it, as the dems would if the situations were reversed.

The republican party will n... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

The republican party will never back a moderate to liberal presidential candidate again. The party listened to the media and lost because of it.

If these three elections aren't important, why are the liberal media focused so much on it? ww

It would be easier on our f... (Below threshold)
Upset Old Guy:

It would be easier on our friends from the left side of the aisle if the Obama Administration hadn't sent people out to do some campaigning.

If Hoffman wins, VIC and his friends are going to have to say something like, "Well, that was only Joe. Nobody takes him seriously." Or maybe, "Oh, but he closed the race up to something closer than polls predicted." See what I mean? Foolish and weak stuff like that.

It would have been easier on their internet battalion if they'd just stayed home and thrown any losers under the bus afterward. I guess Obama doesn't show respect even for his very own "troops."

What do we know, Garandfan?... (Below threshold)
bobdog:

What do we know, Garandfan? We're all ignorant and crazy, you know.

Factory orders are up? Whoopee. Sorry, but so is unemployment. GM and Chrysler are back at the trough. Ford actually made money, and the gimmee-gimmee UAW is so grateful to have jobs that they're working up the nerve to go on strike. The SEIU and Acorn, in a fit of patriotic duty, are out helping get out the absentee vote in New Jersey, goblessem. Citicorp just went under. Congress is scratching and scheming to spend $1.2 trillion on a toxic healthcare grab, national debt is at $12 trillion, and Treasury is printing money like there's no tomorrow (which actually may be true).

Yeah. Things are just peachy.

You wouldn't blow sunshine up my skirt, would you, Vic?

"If Hoffman wins, VIC an... (Below threshold)
Steve Green:

"If Hoffman wins, VIC and his friends are going to have to say something like..."

Something like the seat has been Republican for the last century and the fact that it didn't change is indeed nothing to shout about.

Nothing to shout about for ... (Below threshold)
JustRuss IT1(SW) USN [retired]:

Nothing to shout about for the GOP anyway, for conservatives everywhere it is a victory worth celebrating.

I will not be joining in a victory party for the GOP when Hoffman wins though. They did everything they could to sink him, don't claim him now.

Maybe he and Lieberman can start their own caucus?

Hey Vic..cupcakeCopy... (Below threshold)
ac:

Hey Vic..cupcake
Copying and pasting from the Dem talking points memos again, I see. LOL

Given that he's on the oppo... (Below threshold)

Given that he's on the opposite side of the fence from Lieberman on, well, every single issue except probably defense, that seems a bit unlikely.

Unless they call it the "my party hates me" caucus or something :)

S. Green - "Something like ... (Below threshold)
Upset Old Guy:

S. Green - "Something like the seat has been Republican for the last century and the fact that it didn't change is indeed nothing to shout about.

Un huh, and then the reason for sending Biden and Axlerod up there was?

"Un huh, and then the re... (Below threshold)
Steve Green:

"Un huh, and then the reason for sending Biden and Axlerod up there was?"

To give old guys like you something to talk about?

Of course the Dems are going all out to win this - taking away a seat that the Repulsivecans would be a huge defeat.

but the victory is expected, and not "news" if it happens.

You really can't tell the difference? An old guy like you has been around long enough to develop some critical thinking skills. What happened? Are you one of those old folks who stopped growing after Reagan left office?

"but the victory is expecte... (Below threshold)
914:

"but the victory is expected, and not "news" if it happens."

Any defeat of a leftist is a result of Obama's failed -12 trillion stimulis job creation agenda.

And now we know, Steve Gree... (Below threshold)
Upset Old Guy:

And now we know, Steve Green can't even make two posts in a row without resorting to an ad hominem attack. Smooth Steve. Very smooth.

UOG

P.S. I'm done with you now.

Just seemed so simplistic, ... (Below threshold)
Steve Green:

Just seemed so simplistic, UOG. So obvious. Was it rhetorical? Hard to tell with you upset old guys.
depp=true
notiz=One large shovel coming up.

Mr.Green, Are you ad... (Below threshold)

Mr.Green,
Are you advocating bigotry against the aged?
It seems to be leaking out of your current
posts.

the Obamanistas and their l... (Below threshold)

the Obamanistas and their lap dogs (the media) have been pre-spinning this for days.

For example, they made up every narrative they can think of, except the truth, for why Dede Scuzzything wound up candidate in the first place...and why she quit.

And now they are trying to set up a Win-Win for themselves in all three races, regardless of the outcome tonight!

In each of the three big races they (the Dems/media) have two stories in play. If we win...it's no big deal. If THEY win it's HUGE!

They're missing what's REALLY happening...but that's ok. :)

"Are you advocating bigo... (Below threshold)
Steve Green:

"Are you advocating bigotry against the aged?"

I directed my comments at one self-identified upset old guy, suggesting that his "old guy-ness" was a factor in his perception of the world.

Which he recognizes - or he wouldn't call himself an "Upset Old Guy."

The truth of these races is... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

The truth of these races is the MSM knows this will be a show of Obama's approval or disapproval. Obama went to New Jersey, Axlerod to NY, Biden to Virginia but the liberal loons, Steve Green in particular, is trying to convince himself that it all means nothing. These wins will move the momentum to the conservative side. This is also why the liberals are trying to pass Obamascare this year, next year they know they will not have the fortitude and at the end of the year the majority.

Obama, the inexperienced, empty suit who reads well is fairing as I expected. In any sector of business, leadership either does or doesn't. He doesn't. ww

Mr.Green, Your posts... (Below threshold)

Mr.Green,
Your posts read as being addressed to a
group, not an individual.

Steves just venting in anti... (Below threshold)
914:

Steves just venting in anticipation of His heroes gettin spanked this evening.

When reading the tea leaves... (Below threshold)
Sabba Hillel:

When reading the tea leaves we would also need to figure out how many fraudulent votes will ACORN use to try to swing the election in their direction. The conservatives need to win by a significat amount (of legal votes) to offset the ACORN ballots. Look what happened in Minnesota.

Obama campaigned for Deeds,... (Below threshold)
klrtz1:

Obama campaigned for Deeds, Corzine, and Owens. If fact he spent far more time campaigning for these three Democrats than he has spent conferring with his military commanders about the war in Afghanistan. Despite all the time Obama spent campaigning for them, the election of these three Democrats is now unimportant. So what if they lose, it doesn't mean anything. How much more unimportant must the war in Afghanistan be?

Really? So what if we lose?




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