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Unemployment Rate Tops 10 Percent

The U.S. unemployment rate has now topped 10 percent. This has been predicted for a couple of months now, but still YIKES! Of course Obama warned us that if we did NOT pass the stimulus bill our unemployment rate would reach 9 percent. Too bad he didn't tell us that if we DID pass it, it would exceed 10 percent.

Update: Mark Tapscott makes the argument that unemployment is now a leading indicator.

Unemployment has hit 10.2 percent, the highest level since the 1983 recession. Obama administration officials will no doubt try to spin this latest bad economic news by noting that unemployment is typically a "lagging indicator." That was true in the old days, but it won't cut it in the age of the global economy and Internet-driven 24/7 news cycle. Unemployment may now be something of a leading indicator because business executives make decisions about whether to invest in new jobs much more quickly and based on vastly more data.

Kim adds: A Fox Business Network anchor reminded us this morning on Fox and Friends that economists didn't expect the unemployment rate hit 10% until next year some time, which was supposed to be its peak. This makes me wonder, has the unemployment rate not yet peaked? Will it only increase further?

Don't forget that Christine Romer said last month that any "benefit" the stimulus had has already taken place and that we won't see any "benefits" next year. I'd like to hear from those who have tried to justify this stimulus by saying that it prevented the economy from getting worse than it already is. Will they actually try to argue that the unemployment rate would be even higher without the gargantuan stimulus bill? This is scary stuff, folks, especially since those same people who said this current stimulus was necessary to keep the unemployment rate from going above 8% are now saying we need another stimulus.


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Comments (44)

Looks like we need a { { { ... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:

Looks like we need a { { { {{{HUGE}}} } } } stimulus/spending package.

Come on Lorie, 10 is MORE t... (Below threshold)
Upset Old Guy:

Come on Lorie, 10 is MORE than 9. Bigger is always better. It's a total success for Obama and his administration. /sarc off/

No doubt VIC or SAUD or one of the other liberal minds was to say something like that. Now our friends from the left side of the aisle don't have to come on this thread at all.

Well I'll be dipped. Ol' Ad... (Below threshold)
Upset Old Guy:

Well I'll be dipped. Ol' Adrian was already here. Next time I should look for dirty footprints before hitting the Submit button.

'Heckuva job, Baracky!<br /... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

'Heckuva job, Baracky!
Jobless recovery!
The rich get richer, the poor get poorer!'

I wonder why we don't hear these things in the media anymore? mmm mmm mmm

We are headed to at least 1... (Below threshold)
Dee:

We are headed to at least 11% and I would be shocked if we had any real job creation until Q3 of next year at the earliest.

Small businesses are getting killed right now. I work for a small software start up with only 15 employees and we cannot get a line of credit anywhere. We are not losing money and want to expand our business but we can't because we cannot get a bank to take any risk on us.

Until this administration and Congress start focusing on job creation with small businesses, we will linger in this 9-11% unemployment rate until 2012. While this may be good for Republican prospects in the upcoming elections, they had better get their act together too and start coming up with ideas of their own.

Dee -Small busines... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Dee -

Small businesses become big businesses if they're successful. Big businesses are evil. Obama's just protecting you from becoming evil by keeping you a small business.

Hell, he's going to keep the whole country from becoming evil by making sure we're poor as hell. Rack up the debt, make the payments damn near more than we can afford, and then put a bit more on it, just to keep us humble.

Boy, Joe nailed it, the sti... (Below threshold)

Boy, Joe nailed it, the stimulus is "doing more, faster, more efficiently, and more effectively than most expected." They never dreamed they could wreck the economy so fast or so well.

Of course, we'll all see ho... (Below threshold)
hermie:

Of course, we'll all see how well the 'stimulus' is working when we see how much we are paying in newer and higher taxes next year.

Re: Kim's notes on unemploy... (Below threshold)

Re: Kim's notes on unemployment - the Fed's June minutes had some interesting predictions on that front:

"Their projections for the average unemployment rate during the fourth quarter of 2009 had a central tendency of 9.8 to 10.1 percent..." Well, we're already 'ahead' of that.

"Most participants anticipated that output growth next year would not substantially exceed its longer-run sustainable rate and hence that the unemployment rate would decline only modestly in 2010..." That's encouraging...not.

"The central tendency of the unemployment rate at the end of 2010 was 9.5 to 9.8 percent." Again, even though they raised predictions by a half % at the June meeting from earlier estimates, they're still off by about another full % at this point.

Even with their rosier-than-we're-seeing projections, they see 8 1/2%+ unemployment through all of 2011. Again, this was June projections, have to see where they're at more recently. "With output growth and job creation generally projected to pick up appreciably in 2011, participants anticipated that joblessness would decline more noticeably, as evident from the central tendency of 8.4 to 8.8 percent for their projections of the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2011."

Since the government can't ... (Below threshold)

Since the government can't solve the problem, it's time the people start facing unemployment with their own ingenuity:

http://bit.ly/ozqT6

(satire)

Of course unemployment will... (Below threshold)
Wtfo:

Of course unemployment will increase. 11% is just a start - and keep in mind that figure only counts those on the first leg of unemployment.

Fewer people working means fewer people with money to spend... and that those who still DO have jobs spend less, because they don't know if they're next.

I know this. Business leaders know this. Workers know this.

Nobody really gives a damn whether the government or the talking heads on TV know it - except for how that affects their decision making.

You see, this is a two-step problem; small business owners are hanging it up, large business execs are laying people off and conducting hiring freezes, not just because of spiraling unemployment - but because they're painfully aware that the spiraling unemployment is being helped along by the administration's anti-business, anti-entrepreneur, anti-rule of law, nutty tree-hugging socialist policies. As long as Obama presses on with those agendas, business owners and leaders are pulling a Galt... and know that others like them are doing the same.

This is not a "jobless recovery". This is not any sort of "recovery" at all. We are losing jobs left and right and will continue to do so until those who create jobs - and that is NOT the idiots in D.C. - believe that it's safe for them to do so again.

If you think the unemployment numbers in general are bad, consider how graduating students are not factored into most of those numbers... a few million younger Americans bought into the notion of higher education only to find a mountain of debt, no jobs, and no representation in the unemployment numbers.

Most recent FOMC minutes ar... (Below threshold)

Most recent FOMC minutes are from September and are a little rosier:

"the staff still projected only a slow improvement in labor markets, with the unemployment rate moving down to about 9 1/4 percent by the end of 2010 and then falling to about 8 percent by the end of 2011."

I expect those will again be revised downward in light of current data.

Can we raise interest rates now? Please? Just a little, maybe half a point?

Methinks someone doth prote... (Below threshold)

Methinks someone doth protest way too much. Happily, Tuesday showed that people aren't being fooled.

Lorie: Good that you (and K... (Below threshold)
GeminiChuck:

Lorie: Good that you (and Kim) pointed out what Christine Romer said: that we already have what we will get from the stimulus wrt new jobs. This has confused the pundits since they know less than 15% of stimulus $ is being spent this year - the rest will be next year. So why wont the stimulus help jobs anymore than it has? Well, because the rest of the stimulus is mostly political payoff money earmarked for the election year! Oh, and they want more of that . . .jeez!

Wow. The latest troll (Paul... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

Wow. The latest troll (Paulite? He's got some of that wild-eyed zealot stench about him) seems to think we were happy with McCain or Bush when they strayed from conservative principles in policy.
He's either dumb or ignorant of the history of this blog and it's commenters. Probably both.

The dot com bubble followed... (Below threshold)
Mac Lorry:

The dot com bubble followed by the housing bubble have masked the dismantling of our economic base over the last 20 years. The only significant growth areas that provide a middle class or higher income are government jobs, health care, and the financial sector. Manufacturing jobs have been leaving for a long time, but starting about 10 years ago, so have many engineering jobs, particularly in electronics and software.

If the U.S. wants to maintain anything close to the standard of living the baby boomers enjoyed then it's going to require structural changes to how we, as a nation, do business in the world.

First we have to move away from the liberal idea that the U.S. should give developing nations unfettered access to our markets in order to benefit them economically or promote human rights.

Second we need to move away from the conservative idea of laissez-faire free trade and move toward the idea of fair trade.

The metric that shows there's a failure of fair trade is the trade deficit. Anytime there's a significant trade deficit with another nation it signals artificial manipulation or a structural inequity that prevents American individuals or companies from competing. Fair trade means their must be a level playing field.

I'm sure the idea won't get any traction or even significant support, at least not until people wake up to the reality that a nation of 300 million can't lift 2 billion Indian and Chinese out of poverty by exporting our jobs to them, and at the same time, retain a significant middle class in this country.

The divide between the rich and the poor will continue to grow and the poor will vote in politicians that promise more government help for "working families", increase taxes on the rich, and rack up even higher deficits (kind of like what we're seeing now).

It's time for both liberals and conservatives to wake up to the fact that the world has changed and sticking to the economic formulas of the past means our nation will quickly decline into second world status.

The solution is to impose a tariff structure that's triggered by significant trade deficits on a nation by nation basis. Yes, other nations will respond, but as long as their tariff structure includes the same trade deficit trigger then it's OK. All this does is maintain a level playing field between nations. This is going to be really important for nations that sign up to reduce their carbon footprint, so if Obama was really a smart out-of-the-box thinker and a persuasive leader he could piggy back the fair trade idea onto the AGW scam.

History (from the Dutch perspective ) records that Indians sold Manhattan to the Dutch for sixty guilders ($24) worth of trade goods. If we keep going the way we are history may record that we sold America for cheap goods from India and china.

You really think t... (Below threshold)
You really think that McCain wouldnt have also created a stimulus package?

Heh. You haven't been paying attention, have you?

Well said Mac.... (Below threshold)
epador:

Well said Mac.

Unemployment at 10.2%, with... (Below threshold)

Unemployment at 10.2%, with the Hours per week number remaining constant at ~32.

Translation: firms have cut and all "fat" they had...we are at the bone! And any firms that feel like increasing their output will bump that 32 hours per week number BEFORE hiring anyone else. Especially with thresholds on numbers of employees baked into the ObamaCare and Cap&Tax legislation.

Double digit unemployment...it's gonna be here a while.

Oh, and the deficit? It will increase all the more: Less Taxes in, more Unemployment Out.

Cue Joe Biden to explain how marvelous this all is...

Obama just needs to lead us... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Obama just needs to lead us in another rousing chorus of "Happy Days Are Here Again!". Screw reality.

Time to Impeach Everyone</p... (Below threshold)
sam:

Time to Impeach Everyone

GarandFan: "Obama just n... (Below threshold)

GarandFan: "Obama just needs to lead us in another rousing chorus of "Happy Days Are Here Again!". Screw reality."

um...Obama and Biden are ALREADY "screwing reality" :)

I'm actually waiting for Biden to pop up any minute and explain the full on awesomeness of this!!

Grab yer ankles folks...and please TRY to enjoy it!

Yeah. It's really all Obama... (Below threshold)
SteveP:

Yeah. It's really all Obama's fault. How could it not be? Even though we've had 8 years of a diminished economy, jobs overseas, tax breaks for the wealthy that never materialized as new jobs, a regulation-free wall street that f'd us with their mortgage products and derivatives and a huge crash, long time coming, that happened naturally on Bush's watch...well, why can't all this be fixed in 10 months!!

Even though it took Reagan several years to recover the economy from Carter, I think it's unrealistic to expect the same from Obama. He should have had this licked in three weeks.

Shift the blame, losers. No matter what you are on this site, you will ALWAYS be ignorant and bitter - and the truth will always be somewhere far from yours.

"Shift the blame, losers."<... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"Shift the blame, losers."

Hey asshat! WHO said the STIMULUS would keep unemployment at 8%? WHO passed a STIMULUS bill bloated with paybacks and did NOTHING but add to the national debt? WHO ran a clunkers program that did NOTHING but hand out money? Where are car sales today? IN THE FUCKING TOILET.

So shove it up your ass Stevie, Barry OWNS this farce. Don't bring up Bush, he's GONE. Barry, Reid and Pelosi are running this farce now.

-=seems to think we were ha... (Below threshold)
Gorge Dubbyah:

-=seems to think we were happy with McCain or Bush when they strayed from conservative principles in policy.=-

Bwah. Conservative principles? The word was coined by a french guy that wanted to keep the old order. IE king clergy and powerless masses. Bush, by that definition, was very much a 'conservative' and did what he damn well pleased as 'unitary executive' [king with advisers]

Its why I dont identify with the 'conservative movement'. Its a fraud and has been for some time. Luckily some are waking up and realizing that they are seen as wackos by K street lobbyists hired by the FIRE sector and not showing up for the protests and going against their interests.

Awww, banned again. Shuck E Darnz

Hah

I predicted that is would h... (Below threshold)
Stan25:

I predicted that is would happen the last time this would happen, but damn, I figured that it would be at the end of the year, not this soon. Shades of Jimmy Carter in spades here. I would not be too surprised to now see the November unemployment figures hit 10.5% and who know how high the December ones will be. Great job there Barry and Joe.

So shove it up your ass Ste... (Below threshold)
Gorge Dubbyah:

So shove it up your ass Stevie, Barry OWNS this farce. Don't bring up Bush, he's GONE. Barry, Reid and Pelosi are running this farce now.

What kind of Rip Van Winkle logic is that? Lets forget 911! Lets forget two still ongoing military operations! Lets forget what is inconvenient to talk about. Lets forget that 2000-2008 never happened at all.

"Shift the blame, losers."<... (Below threshold)
Nancy's Nazi:

"Shift the blame, losers."

Not paying attention Tuesday night I see.


btw, Barrack Hussain Obama mmmm mmmm mmmm

He's either dumb or ignoran... (Below threshold)
Gorge Dubbyah:

He's either dumb or ignorant of the history of this blog and it's commenters. Probably both.

Oh geebs. Dont pin your imagination on me. K Thankew.

I am quite familiar with the 'conservative' movement and Palin or Newt would be another Bush and the gnashing of teeth and stomping of feet about abadoning conservative core values once again.

Its the unlected consensus [big money] that needs to change before you can actually change what goes on in Los Pinos

Good post Mac Lorry (21).</... (Below threshold)
Hank:

Good post Mac Lorry (21).

I'd also add that the economy would start to turn around rather quickly if we opened our domestic energy reserves. Start drilling, create more domestic oil, create nuke power plants, etc.

We'd have jobs created short term, and long term, less money leaving the country. Cheaper energy would affect every facet of our lives, in a positive way.

Double digit unemploymen... (Below threshold)

Double digit unemployment...it's gonna be here a while.

Well, it could come down some. And when it does it will be trumpeted as success by the Won.

But if it does come down some it will likely be because more people are dropping out of the job hunt (this is reflected in the unemployment rate as a decline) because they can't find anything. Continually keeping people feeding at the public trough (extending unemployment) won't help keep people looking, either. (not that they shouldn't be extended at this point - it's a rock and a hard place, you want people to work and they want to work, but the dems are keeping jobs from growing and also making it easier not to work - a fine solution until it catches up with you and everything goes down in flames, I'd rather see job growth encouraged and then rein in benefits, it's not all 10%'s fault that they can't find jobs)

'd also add that the econom... (Below threshold)
Gorge Dubbyah:

'd also add that the economy would start to turn around rather quickly if we opened our domestic energy reserves. Start drilling, create more domestic oil, create nuke power plants, etc.

We added some 21 new rigs last week. Refineries are only running at about 80% capacity without the domestic reserves and like with the Bush tax cuts it hasnt created many new jobs.

"I am quite famili... (Below threshold)
914:

"I am quite familiar with the 'conservative' movement and Palin or Newt would be another Bush and the gnashing of teeth and stomping of feet about abadoning conservative core values once again."

Newt would be. Palin would not.

Burock Hussein Obama, mmmm mmmm mmmm

Kid's everywhere adore Him, mmmm mmmm mmmm

10.2% unemployment, mmmm mmmm mmmm

Just wait and see the encore, mmmm mmmm mmmm

14.4% unemployment, mmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmm!


You really think that Mc... (Below threshold)
iwogisdead:

You really think that McCain wouldnt have also created a stimulus package?

Wow. Didn't see that one coming. I knew they'd blame Bush, but who could have thought they would be blaming McCain?

Shift the blame, losers.... (Below threshold)
iwogisdead:
The trolls have convenientl... (Below threshold)
hermie:

The trolls have conveniently ignored that Obama was a US senator and his campaign and the MSM gushed over his 'quiet leadership' to create the TARP bill. In fact, Obama said that the bill would have to meet HIS requirements before he supported it. Since he voted for it and publically supported it, it met his requirements, which the Dem-controlled House and Senate then followed his 'quiet leadership'.

Personally, I think it's re... (Below threshold)
klrtz1:

Personally, I think it's really innovative to blame the 10% unemployment rate on McCain. I bet you don't see that particular analysis anywhere else.

Wasn't it just last week all the trolls were rejoicing that the recession was over? How can Obama, the "Teleprompter Barbie", get all the credit for ending the recession and yet avoid all the blame for the rising unemployment?

I still laugh when I think of "Teleprompter Barbie". Looks nice, made of plastic, no balls, no brain. Who was it came up with that again?

While the Tea Partiers were... (Below threshold)
Oyster:

While the Tea Partiers were in Washington yesterday Nancy Pelosi couldn't be bothered to be seen in public and sent her spokesman out to confront reporters. He actually came out and said that while the "party of no" holds a rally "[W]e are debating bipartisan legislation to create jobs by extending unemployment benefits ..."

I kid you not. It doesn't get much more ridiculous than this (or our new clown-boy who has decided to pop in and crap on the carpet every ten minutes).

It's been rather obvious fr... (Below threshold)
gary gulrud:

It's been rather obvious from the first 90 days, Pants Afire was expecting Amerikkka to take care of him while he got on with the job of remaking her from the ground up.

Pity, he didn't study harder as Barry Soetoro, he's too busy to cram now.

Excellent post Mac,<p... (Below threshold)
Deke:

Excellent post Mac,

Unfort., the Baby Boom generation is in power and the one thing we can say about them is they are undoubtably the most selfish generation in American History. Gen X and Y has another 10 years before were all in our 40's and 50's and, statistically speaking, in our power prime.

The problem, demographically, is that when they retire they will still outnumber us by huge margins, one has to wonder if the next generation will produce any politicians of substance or if they will kow-tow to this huge voting block.

The other problem is that immigration, to suplement the population divide, is unskilled, 3rd world, with no desire for assimilation and has become accustomed to Government services provided by those Baby Boomers, on the backs of their children.

The common sense approaches towards growing and maintaining the middle class, America's huge advantage over the rest of the world, that people like you and I can see, do not fit into the plans of the "make life comfortable for me!" generation that is in power now. I just hope that by some miracle we can turn it around before it's too late. Unfort., most days I feel we are the late Roman Empire and doomed to be a chapter in a history textbook.

Thanks epador, Hank, and De... (Below threshold)
Mac Lorry:

Thanks epador, Hank, and Deke. Yes, we could improve our lot by making energy independence a national priority, particularly if it's independence by all means (coal, oil, NG, nuclear, hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal, and tidal).

The Baby Boom generation is not our enemy. They want the nation to have a strong economy for the sake of their children and grand children. The federal government has been spending the excess social security trust fund money they collect in the from of payroll taxes for the last 40 years, so retired folks are entitled to their social security checks. The budget buster is Medicare, but there's a way to fix that too. It just takes a bit more out-of-the-box thinking about how to reduce the cost of medical care for everyone. I've laid our an idea on how to do that a month ago, so I won't repeat it here.

The underlying principle is that we need new tools to fix our problems, and the only way you are going to implement those new tools is to hold all politicians accountable for producing real results regardless of their party. The ideas are out there, politicians just need to be properly motivated to seek them.

Since he voted for... (Below threshold)
Stan25:
Since he voted for it and publically supported it, it met his requirements, which the Dem-controlled House and Senate then followed his 'quiet leadership'

This vote is just about the only one that he had recorded. I was totally surprised that he did not vote present, as he usually did. Come to think of it, he is still voting present.

Thin-skinned Paranoiac Narc... (Below threshold)

Thin-skinned Paranoiac Narcissism?

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

Graft? Corruption? Looting?

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

Stagflation, anyone?

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

0zero's Misery Index?

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

Dopey, 2.2 GPA, quota-accelerated permanent Peter Principle poster person pretending to what presently passes for a "presidency?"

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

Hmmmm! Hmmmm! Hmmmm!

Actually, the unemployment ... (Below threshold)

Actually, the unemployment rate is worse than the government is admitting. They're sugar-coating the data by claiming that workers are dropping out of the labor force every month, at the same time that the population grows by 250,000 per month. (See http://petemurphy.wordpress.com/2009/11/06/unemployment-jumps-to-11-7/)

Also, without the stimulus spending, the underlying economy continues to contract at a scary clip. See http://petemurphy.wordpress.com/2009/10/30/3rd-quarter-gdp-up-erosion-in-underlying-economy-continues/

Pete Murphy
Author, "Five Short Blasts"




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