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Hope...or a Warning Sign?

I don't share Rich Lowry's optimism, but over at the NRO he has an editorial on why Obamacare still might not yet pass. Here are few examples.

1. Public Revulsion. The bill was already under water in every major public-opinion poll, and opposed by a margin of almost 2 to 1 in the latest CNN poll. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll put its support at freezing, 32 percent. A few ticks downward and the bill will be in the 20s.
and
4. Feeling Blue. "Blue Dog Democrat" is understandably becoming a term of derision, denoting a willingness to object only enough to be noticed before caving in to the Democratic leadership. Yet the Blue Dogs still have to be a worry for supporters of the bill. When Obamacare first passed the House, 28 Blue Dog Democrats, more than half of their 52-member coalition, were on board. This is a pool that surely includes some very nervous votes. As Michael Barone points out, nearly 70 percent of the Blue Dogs represent districts that voted for John McCain. A vote for this bill must look even more like a potentially career-ending decision now than it did the first time around.
Read his whole piece for all five points. What stuck me more when reading it wasn't the idea that Obamacare won't pass--I think Nelson's defection has sealed that--but just how damaging a vote for the bill could be to political careers.

I can't recall a bill with such low popularity being passed on a straight party line every before in history. As it happens, people are vowing it will trigger a tidal wave of change in the 2010 and 2012 elections. But will it? The next election is still many months away. While pundits and political junkies certainly will remember will your average independent voter?

Only time will tell of course but I can't begin to fathom why a representative would vote for the bill when support in their state is so very low. It seems like guaranteed political suicide. While your average congressman isn't that smart they are typically pretty smart about staying in power. Why not this time?


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Comments (13)

The Democrats are betting t... (Below threshold)
SShiell:

The Democrats are betting their collective skins on the following:

1. The economy shows marked improvement between now and election day. With this one aspect, the Dems are betting that if the economy is good then all else will be forgiven.

2. That Clinton was right. Clinton told the collective Democratic Caucus the 1994 midterm defeat happened because they did not pass a healthcare bill. Even Obama and the WH staff have indicated the polls should improve with the bill becoming a reality.

3. The incumbent rule continues to rule. The rule of thumb that the incumbent has the overwhelming advantage will still hold sway.

4. They believe their own propaganda. The Tea Parties are nothing to worry about, the polls do not reflect the real state of the country's attitude towards congress, people still believe in "Hope & Change".

5. The Republican brand is still universally reviled - even to the point of continuing to ride the "Blame Bush" campaign train in the upcoming midterms.

6. And lastly but even more importantly - See #1!

Reid and Pelosi will doubtl... (Below threshold)
jim2:

Reid and Pelosi will doubtless let every possible Dem vote "No" that they can and still have the bill pass.

For example, Reid needed 60 for cloture, but only 51 to pass, and could do 50 and let Biden get to play. I would not be surprised if Nelson and the other ones last to make 60 had just that in their deal with Reid.

I think you're on the right... (Below threshold)

I think you're on the right track here, Dan.

Senate Democrats gave up on HillaryCare in 1994 with significantly less public opposition that ObamaCare has right now.

I can't imagine the Democrats wanting to own such an unpopular piece of legislation, which is exactly what will happen if it passes the Congress on a strictly party-line vote and is signed by a Democrat president.

Will the fire tamp down in ... (Below threshold)
zipity:

Will the fire tamp down in the ensuing months? Surely. Will the Democrats forced march to socialism yield a target rich environment for conservative political commercial producers next summer/fall? Absolutely. Next November promises to be a very chilly fall for the Acolytes of the Obamessiah...

Michael, they *ALREADY*<... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

Michael, they *ALREADY* own it lock, stock and barrel.

Today, the Democrat congress critter for my area, Parker Griffin, switched parties. He was a Democrat in a very blue area of Alabama and got swept in on Obama's coat tails. I suspect his internal polling and numerous unhappygrams from constituents forced his hand early. It really will not matter though, he's as good as gone already after having insulted the conservatives here.

As more tidbits of information come out about what this bill does you can count on it that there will be more defections and outright resignations by Bluedogs and Democrats in marginal districts that can see the writing on the wall.

I think we're headed for pa... (Below threshold)
bobdog:

I think we're headed for passage, but the price will be steep for Democrats. You can't ignore widespread public revulsion to this bill, including a growing number of Democrats.

The one thing I'm worried about is that the Tea Party will actually field candidates and split the Republican vote, leaving the Democrats still in charge. There's no ignoring the widespread anger among voters, but Republicans are famous for eating their young.

without Stupak the bill wou... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

without Stupak the bill would have failed in the House ... with Stupak the bill fails in the Senate ...
no way they can write it in such a way as to satisfy both of these requirements ...
the House will pass a No Public Option version (thats just a bluff from the left)
the Constitutionality vote being pressed could make for some hilarity but I doubt it will derail the Mandate portion ...

so let me get this straight... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

so let me get this straight ...
Reid snuck in a change that would require 67 votes to override it in the future but doesn't require 67 votes to enact it now ???? huh ?

This is insane ...

Just pass the popcorn. Rec... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Just pass the popcorn. Reconciliation between the Houses is going to be a free-for-all.

And if it does survive and pass, it will be hung around the neck of every Democrat who voted for it. BECAUSE THE TAXES WILL BEGIN IMMEDIATELY.

Exit question: How many companies will:
a) lay off workers to pay for health insurance for the remaining workers
b) kick ALL employees off their health care plan and just pay a fine

"Exit question: How many... (Below threshold)
914:

"Exit question: How many companies will:
a) lay off workers to pay for health insurance for the remaining workers
b) kick ALL employees off their health care plan and just pay a fine"

a) Probably all, since in Barry's tax crazy business climate only the strong have survived even 12 months of His tyrannical idiocy..

b) 100% unless the employees agree to an offset in wages to compensate. Otherwise grab Your lunch pail and get in Barry's never ending unemployment parade.

I just don't think the Dems... (Below threshold)

I just don't think the Dems care about their approval ratings. They've bought in, this is the big one (for now), 1/6th of the economy lock, stock, and barrel under the government thumb. It's not often they get that big of a piece in one bite. If it costs them their jobs, so be it. You have to understand that they strongly, truly believe it is a good thing to have the government running things. Opponents are just shrill deniers to them. They know they lost their chance with Clinton but can taste it now, if Lieberman had lost to a pliable Dem they'd have already coasted through this by now and be going single payer, it does not matter how many people are against it or the fact that it's a dangerous failure everywhere, if it's run by the government, that's all that matters, they'd rather be kings of a crap factory than just one cog in a successful, smooth running machine. They know that if they lose their job now it's Ok because they'll be the martyrs to a permanent Democratic majority in the future because we're damned close to the 50% tipping point where the looters can vote themselves money from the productive. And that's a good thing to them.

And you know what? A hell of a lot of these people are going to get re-elected, especially if this passes, because they're going to run on 'the republican running against me wants to TAKE AWAY YOUR RIGHT TO HEALTH CARE!'.

I have to think they'll need to go after the guns next.

I have a question. Since t... (Below threshold)
ser:

I have a question. Since the congress critters do not seem to follow the will of the people, can we demand, that to get our vote, candidates in 2010 must agree to repudiate any government debt incurred after 1/1/2010? The only way to stop this train wreck is to let the Chinese know that we won't pay them back if they want to lend money to the current class of kleptocrats.

Dan, it is clear that you a... (Below threshold)
SmartyMarty:

Dan, it is clear that you are correctly skeptical of the possibility that those voting for the bill will loose their seats if they are not already absolutely safe; they will get sufficient funds from graft, bribes and sources I cannot even imagine so as to enable them to "buy" reelection if necessary in 2010. The public be damned.




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