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Joining the echo chamber

I'm having a hard time posting on the Brown-Coakley race in Massachusetts. To put it bluntly, I fear the echo chamber. The right side of the blogosphere has gone from idle speculation through cautious optimism to outright expectation that Brown is going to win. I completely understand why. While there is still a chance that Obama could ram through health care before Brown is seated (most likely by making the House accept the Senate bill outright), the failure for the Democrats to retain control "Ted Kennedy's seat" would be very telling. So the thought of Brown winning gives conservative-minded people hope.

But I also remember back to the 2008 election. I would read the analysis of polls and hear emphatically that there was no way that Obama would carry Virginia. The internals of polls were ripped apart in blog after blog. The current and ex-military personnel would never vote for Obama I was told. The same was said about Ohio. It was clear to many that Obama's "clinging to religion and guns" comment would doom him in the blue-collar midwest. I wanted to believe that analysis and couldn't help but feel let down as Virginia and Ohio turned blue on election night.

So yes, undoubtedly Brown is polling very well. Hot Air links this morning to two polls, one with Brown up by 6% and another with him up by 9.6%. Morrissey goes on to look at the internals of the first poll and decides that it is still has a liberal bias and is oversampling democrats. Just like a year and some months ago, I want to believe but my cautious side warns me otherwise.

This is still Massachusetts. Polling can't account for trucked in SEIU workers going door to door and getting out the vote. Polling can't account for ACORN shenanigans. Polling can't account for liberal judges making biased decisions to keep certain polling stations open and discounting votes from oversea military personnel on technicalities.

Perhaps it is the fiscal conservative in me but the indicator I trust the most are prediction markets. At least in those cases people are putting their money where their predictions are. It is free for me to blog all day and claim Brown is going to win. It is quite another for me to put hard earned cash into a predictive market that says the same thing. So with the caveat that in the end I have given in and may indeed be adding to the conservative echo chamber, I leave you with the latest from intrade. Click on the thumbnail below for a larger image.

intradecoakley.png

Obama did promise hope and change. This Tuesday, it is my turn to hope.


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Comments (7)

Brown as a very liberal Rep... (Below threshold)
epador:

Brown as a very liberal Republican, but he has to be to have any chance in maintaining an elected position in MA. We had as very liberal Republican Senator who lost to a Democrat last cycle here in Oregon.

I have a theory, that if the Republican Party would come out in support of legalization of Marijuana, it could be a serious factor in California, Washington and Oregon. Unless they can find a way to lace all the pot that is ingested in this region with conservative values, they haven't got a chance.

Weather forecast for tomorr... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Weather forecast for tomorrow is for snow and rain. We had an small ice storm last night and cold wind today.

Foul weather favors the side with emotion and energy. Looks good for Brown. With PPP (a dem polling group) yesterday calling it Brown 51 - Coakley 46, things look promising.

"The current and ex-militar... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

"The current and ex-military personnel would never vote for Obama I was told."-DK

Yeah, I remember hearing such cant as well, despite clear and repeated strong polling numbers for Obama among the services in Iraq.

The GOP-centric transmission belt of partisan infotainment (NRO, Redstate, Tits Limbaugh, Sean Vanity, etc.) is practically New Age religionists when it comes to their belief in the power of positive thinking effecting mass consciousness and current events---couched publicly as Optimism, of course, as if that is sound strategy.

Ever so conveniently, this creed of charism requires no blood, sweat, tears, or toil on the part of these cloistered would-be commissars. Coincidence? But I don't begrudge them their racket, and a sucker's born every minute anyway.

"...and a sucker's born eve... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"...and a sucker's born every minute anyway."

And you lead the pack bryanD. Catch your buddy, Chrissy Matthews today? He's all teary eyed. Couple other "news reporters" over at your watering hole, MSNBC, appear to be in shock as well. Just think, DK, DU, Huffpo, NPR - must be in the spin closet right now, trying to figure how this is all Bush's fault.

I worry less about Democrat... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

I worry less about Democratic voter fraud and machine turnout in Massachusetts than almost any other state. The simple reason is they have virtually owned the place long enough not to have the kind of organization in place already. Not to say they couldn't bus in some expertise or wouldn't try, but you can't set up a professional vote fraud operation like Seattle, Chicago, or Milwaukee overnight.

Also, the whole Obama thing was a fluke. The guy ran as a "post-racial, post-partisan" healer and compromiser who promised to change the way business is done in DC, and turned out to be a liar, a hyper-partisan and extreme leftist. The thrill is gone. He has nothing on! The "New Messiah" is an empty suit, a half-baked "community organizer" who has not a single actual accomplishment in his life which would qualify him for a seat in the Senate, much less any higher office.

He couldn't even fill up a 3000-seat auditorium at Northeastern U in Boston yesterday, and many of those who did show were out-of-state students there to see the Prez who didn't even know who Coakley was.

Brown looks to win, but even if he doesn't, if we come close to taking "Teddy's seat" in the People's Republic of Massachusetts, what do you think the verdict will be in Virginia, Nebraska, Ohio, and Florida?

The handwriting is on the wall, and it ain't pro-Obama graffiti this time.

You might like this new Hit... (Below threshold)

You might like this new Hitler parody video

"Obama tipping point: Coakley (Hitler parody)"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oP7GJRYiZ14

"Catch your buddy, Chrissy ... (Below threshold)
bryanD:

"Catch your buddy, Chrissy Matthews today?"-garandfan

Garandfan: the world's absolute worst detective.

Garandfan's optimal employment slot?

Food taster for Chechen satrap due to involuntary organ response overriding Garandfan's organ cognition as rating of assignment success.




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