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The ObamaCare Expectations Game And Manipulation

As Politico begins to chronicle (using a very similar turn of phrase) what we noted last week, the gamesmanship and stakes of passing ObamaCare are reaching new levels.

Nancy Pelosi's grip on House slips

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is not accustomed to the word she's been hearing far more frequently in recent days: "no."

Over the past two weeks, Pelosi has faced a series of subtle but significant challenges to her authority -- revolts from Democrats on the Ways and Means Committee, the Congressional Black Caucus, the Blue Dog Coalition and politically vulnerable first- and second-term members.

The dynamic stems from an "every man for himself" attitude developing in the Democratic Caucus rather than a loss of respect for Pelosi, according to a senior Democratic aide. But it's making Pelosi's life -- and efforts to maintain Democratic unity -- harder.

Tom Maguire added some much needed brevity to a debate that is begging for some clarity:

If she can find 216 votes for health care she becomes a genius again.

That sums it up. Speaker Pelosi is all in at this point, and the game is much more worth watching. Bart Stupak was reported to have sent a "signal" today that he (and his anti abortion colleagues) might reach some compromise language on a Senate "side car" agreement after they voted on the Senate bill that fully funds abortion. Steve Hayes at the Weekly Standard called BS on that notion tonight on Fox News, noting John McCormack's report,that "There's No Deal, And I Won't Agree to a Promise to Fix the Bill in the Future".

Michigan Democrat Bart Stupak said yesterday at a townhall in his home state, "I'm more optimistic than I was a week ago" that a deal could be reached to pass a health care bill that bans public funding of abortion. Some speculated that this meant Stupak was ready to cave. "Obviously they don't know me," Stupak said in an interview this afternoon with THE WEEKLY STANDARD. "If I didn't" cave in November, "why would I do it now after all the crap I've been through?"

"Everyone's going around saying there's a compromise--there's no such thing," Stupak said. What's changed between this week and last, Stupak went on, is that he had his first real conversation with Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Congressman Henry Waxman about fixing the bill.

But Stupak made one thing very clear: While he's optimistic, there's a lot of confusion about how the House would structure a bill that he could vote for. Stupak says "the majority party can get it done. Where there's a will there's a way." But: "No one has said here's how you do it, here's the legislative scheme."

The ObamaCare expectations game is reaching stratospheric levels. There are even rumors of Intrade manipulation. According to Business Insider:

The theory has been raised -- most directly to us by Twitter user @fleckman -- that the surge does not represent the view of insiders (that it's going to pass) but rather it represents an attempt on the part of DC insiders to bid up the market and create a sense of inevitability

There's some logic to it: the contract goes up, we write about it, Krugman writes about it, and suddenly everyone agrees that it has momentum.

That would not surprise me at all given the money at stake and the political careers on the line. And then there is the George Soros factor. Intrade would be small stuff for him.


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Comments (14)

That was a puff piece on Na... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

That was a puff piece on Nancy. She keeps a set of books on who owes who and why. She learned how to keep the books at her Daddy's knee. Nancy is losing control; the Dems know their going to take it in the shorts come November, and Madame Speaker will no longer be sitting on the Throne. Having led the party to defeat, she sure as hell isn't going to be Minority Leader. 8 months is a long way off, but politicians deal in the here and now. Right now the polls show that they are facing pitchforks and torches back home. Barry can spin all he wants, all his speeches now are to the party faithful. No one else is listening to him. Desperation is setting in, so don't be surprised by anything they try now. Hoyer just announced that 'there is no deadline'. Guess no one told Baghdad Bobby Gibbs.

Lipinski from Illinois and ... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Lipinski from Illinois and Oberstar from MN have both reiterated their opposition to he bill. They are part of Stupak's group of dems opposed to the bill. If that group holds it will be exceptionally difficult for Obama to get it passed.

My gut tells me that the hype about it passing is just that. They are trying to drown out the skeptics and the hold outs and make it seem like there aren't any. They want to make it look like anyone who is holding out is all on their own.

Meanwhile the same old BS is being pushed by Pelosi: We can't tell you what's in the bill until it passes.

While it is assumed that any dem retiring is a lock to vote for the bill, most of them already voted for it previously and if they opposed it on principle they are going to be harder to buy off not easier if they are leaving.

Has anyone considered the f... (Below threshold)
Stan:

Has anyone considered the fact that if Barry does not get his prize package, by Congressional means, that he will try to executive order it in? Yes, I know that method is highly Unconstitutional; but when has that stopped him? He wants this so bad that he will sell his children's souls to the devil, just to get his way. Maybe he already has.

SSSocialisssed healthcare! ... (Below threshold)
Gollum:

SSSocialisssed healthcare! We wantsss it, Precioussss, We wantsss it!

Barry tires an 'executive o... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Barry tires an 'executive order' and even Nancy and Harry won't be able to save him from impeachment.

I think that the House will... (Below threshold)
retired military:

I think that the House will eventually pass the bill. Nancy may have to resort to a few broken kneecaps and blackmail to do it and I dont put it past them. Some more opponents to health care may find sudden scandals pop up to where they have to resign immediately. It will only take 1 or 2 to get enough votes to fall in line to pass it.

If they dont pass it now they may try to pass it after the Nov elections with folks who have nothing to lose.

But I dont see Nancy or Harry in leadership positions next year no matter what.


I think Obama is saving the... (Below threshold)
retired military:

I think Obama is saving the executive order for Amnesty. got to get those illegals to vote democrat one way or another. Blanket presidential pardon on all illegals and making them citizens all in one fell swoop should get Barry elected again.

I think retired military ha... (Below threshold)
Hank:

I think retired military has it.

Obama pisses off millions of americans by passing Obamacare and counters the lost votes by providing amnesty for the 20 - 30 million illegals.

Obama pisses of... (Below threshold)
Obama pisses off millions of americans by passing Obamacare and counters the lost votes by providing amnesty for the 20 - 30 million illegals.
If that's how it goes, there will be blood.
I threatened nothing, douch... (Below threshold)

I threatened nothing, douchebag. Nor did I say whose blood it would be.

I pray every night that Pre... (Below threshold)

I pray every night that President Obama never in his entire life suffers so much as a paper cut, and that no one ever tries to inflict so much as a paper cut on him. The last thing this country needs is another martyr for proggnuts like greentoon to deify in their pursuit of a totalitarian state.

I want Obama to live to be 150 years old, knowing for at least 100 of those years that his single term as president was the epitome of epic fail.

As pissed off as America is about ObamaCare, and as pissed off as they were about amnesty during the Dubya years, it doesn't take a prophet to know things will get extremely ugly out there if Obama manages to push both of those things through.

So if you think my comment ... (Below threshold)

So if you think my comment this morning was a threat, douchebag, REPORT ME.

Steve Green....I<b... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

Steve Green....

I
Drink
Your
Milkshake

Super !!! Merci beaucoup :)... (Below threshold)

Super !!! Merci beaucoup :)




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