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Obamacare Chances

Tonight I can't help but be thinking about the chances that Obamacare is rammed through the house using any number of dubious means. Glenn Reynolds links to this article from The Hill, where Stupak claims that the Democrats are 16 votes short in the house.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-Mich.) said Monday he thinks House Democratic leaders are not close to having the votes to pass health reform.

In an interview with Fox News' Greta Van Susteren, the anti-abortion rights lawmaker said, "I'd be surprised if they have 200 votes."

On the other hand, I've been watching Intrade and continue to be pessimistic.

intradechart.png

I can already hear the comments that predictive markets aren't predictive and that people like Soros can play the market to try to influence public opinion. But on the other hand, markets like Intrade have been useful predictors in the past. I'm hoping it is wrong this time.

Convince me it is in the comments and I will sleep better.


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Comments (17)

For what its worth, if it h... (Below threshold)
914:

For what its worth, if it helps You sleep any better, Obama is already a lame duck, the dems are going to lose the majority status and Soros is entering his golden dementia years.

I know its not much but they are going to do what they do regardless of how much sleep we get. So rest easy and tomorrow will take care of itself.

You could be right, but Int... (Below threshold)
Dave:

You could be right, but Intrade had Corzine and Hoffman winning on Election Day.

To understand Intrade or an... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

To understand Intrade or any market in terms of price prediction (the equity markets, for example, are about predicting future stock prices), one thing one must consider is VOLUME - the number of shares or contracts traded. Here's the current data on their Health Bill contract:

Currency USD
Session lo/hi 60.7 - 76.5
Life lo/hi 20.0 - 89.9
Previous Close 65.0
Open Price 60.7
Last Price 75.0
Last Trade Time 05:17 AM, GMT
Today's Volume 582
Total Volume 11086
Market Lifetime: Jan 19 - Jan 1


Notice first the contracts traded today - only 582. The total number of contracts traded altogether is only 11,086. To put this in perspective, over 22 MILLION shares of Exxon-Mobil were traded Monday, and that's down about 25% from their AVERAGE activity.

Intrade is great to predict things where they can attract a lot of attention and volume, like a Presidential election. But issues which don't attract much activity render it virtually meaningless. The huge volatility - prices ranged from just over $60 to just over $76 TODAY - underlines this point. The value hasn't changed that much in 24 hours, just the frenzy of the few.

I can state unequivocally that as of this moment Pelosi does NOT have the votes. This is certain because the vote will be scheduled immediately once she secures the last vote - she will not wait for someone to feel qualms or pressure and switch to "no."

I also think Intrade is cou... (Below threshold)
Dave:

I also think Intrade is counting on Pelosi to use the "Slaughter Solution" to pass the Senate bill in the House. There is nothing the GOP can stop this.

However, the Supreme Court will probably step into the matter.

SillyTrade™ has it at 43.4... (Below threshold)
SillyPuddy:

SillyTrade™ has it at 43.45%, don't relax, but do get some sleep.

Personally, I hope it will ... (Below threshold)
bobdog:

Personally, I hope it will fail, but I have absolutely no reason not fear the worst.

Obama and Pelosi are all in, and there is nothing they won't do to sneak this bill through. So far, they've tried lying, bribery, threats, scapegoating, bullying, secret meetings, propaganda, patently absurd budgetary gimmicks and double counting of expected revenues, backroom deals, unfunded mandates the states can't possibly afford, staged speaking events, manipulation of congressional rules, threats to delay seating Scott Brown until after passage, and are now threatening to bypass voting altogether. I think all those things are true.

The question isn't what they might do to pass this monstrosity. The question is what they WON'T do.

As a great man once said, "Listen, and understand. That [Obamanator] is out there. It can't be bargained with. It can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until [this bill passes]."

This ain't what I learned in high school civics.

Intrade is great t... (Below threshold)
Intrade is great to predict things where they can attract a lot of attention and volume, like a Presidential election. But issues which don't attract much activity render it virtually meaningless. The huge volatility - prices ranged from just over $60 to just over $76 TODAY - underlines this point. The value hasn't changed that much in 24 hours, just the frenzy of the few.(3. Posted by Jim Addison

Not to mention the markets are living in their own "balloon-bubble" created by the direct infusion of Treasury dollars that have propped up the financials. When this money dries up, (and it has to at some point), the markets will do some serious adjusting in an unpleasant manner. Consumer spending and confidence is beginning to tank again after the uptick during the holidays. Throw in the disasterous unemployment numbers, and it makes perfect sense to pass a new multi-trillion dollar entitlement---NOT.

Jim Addison is right. The ... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Jim Addison is right. The volume on this commodity severely limits its utility as a predictor. What makes predictive markets such as Intrade useful is its ability to attract a lot of people and hence a lot of intelligence, understanding and expertise on the subject.

How many people are trading in this market? With only 582 contracts sold daily I would figure that there are fewer than 100 people trading daily. So

The error bars on this could be 30% or greater.

It's going to pass:<p... (Below threshold)
sanssoucy:

It's going to pass:

(1) Blue dog Democrat? Bullshit. These so-called "moderates" only break one way folks. If they were "moderate" in any sense of the word, they'd already be Republicans. C'mon, you're depending one a scumbag like Bart Stupak to kill ObamaCare? At the end of the day, enough of these will toe the line.

(2) Pelosi has a pool of former "no" votes from asshats like Dennis Kucinich, and this is what will puts them over the top. While they might have formerly voted "no" because the bill wasn't leftist enough, in their little rat-brains they know that *once enacted*, any bill will grow into a huge lefty government entitlement.

In the history of the world, *no government entitlement program has EVER gotten SMALLER*. This one will balloon. It's the ultimate foot in the door, and no one on the left will allow this opportunity to slip through their fingers when the chips are down.

If I had to guess, I'd say it'll pass handily.

This relience on Intrade is... (Below threshold)
Michael:

This relience on Intrade is silly. It is not a predictor....people with no inside info on betting on their ill-informed opinion.

InTrade is extremely volati... (Below threshold)
JB:

InTrade is extremely volatile and unreliable until the event is imminent (i.e. hard news that something is definitely going to happen breaks.)

Can't help you Dan. Can on... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Can't help you Dan. Can only comment that if ObamaCare passes via the methods being planned by Pelosi, the fireworks will have only just begun.

Well, if you're actually lo... (Below threshold)
Caesar Augustus:

Well, if you're actually losing sleep over something over which you have no control whatsoever, then you've got to change your ways, Chief.

" If I had to guess, I'd sa... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

" If I had to guess, I'd say it'll pass handily.

9. Posted by sanssoucy "

Maybe. But now is the time to keep the pressure up. Make 'em pass it through some sneaky b.s. and it will be more likely to be found unconstitutional, or at least it will enrage more people so it can be repealed or defunded in the near future.

Make 'em try to cheat, and we'll have a better chance of stopping it.

Chance's are if Barry & Nan... (Below threshold)
914:

Chance's are if Barry & Nancy and the rest of the Morlock's cant fudge the votes they'll CHEAT!!

@Steve Green (stupid and vo... (Below threshold)
_Mike_:

@Steve Green (stupid and vocal):

In what direction has the cost of Social Security gone ? (Answer - Up).

By your own post, the benefits of Social Security have not gone (despite cost having gone up).

That's the motto of Government social programs - "Pay more, get less!"

They wont cheat.... ... (Below threshold)
Scotty V:


They wont cheat....

They'll don't even know how to play the game. These are the ones who make up the rules as they go. They cheated to get in the game. Now, they will just do what ever the HE!! they want.

I should know I am a socialist now: You know since the economy tanked_

1. EBT_card,
2. Mortgage help,
3. A government GMC car,
4. A Government bank account,
5. Fake Paper money.
6. A floating economy.
7. Health care subsidized by the state.
8. Gas bill help,
9. Electrical bill help,
10. Phone bill help...(yes they have that)
11. Oh... and A government run Internet to watch my every move.

Did I miss any thing?

The only thing that Oboma is doing different is, that he is stepping up to take credit for it all. and that really Pis]]]'s them off.

So if you think stopping this is going to happen.... then you haven't been paying attention.

Both sides are working together, and some of them... don't even know that.

And that the real story_

rest well.




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