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It's About Time: Obama Approval Under Disapproval on RCP

Real Clear Politics, or RCP for short, is a news site that averages approval/disapproval polls together, forming a very non-partisan system. For the last year and change, I have closely watched the approval of the President. Slowly but surely, it kept going lower and lower and lower.

The President was at his peak on January 29, 2009 with an approval of 63.5 and a disapproval of only 19.3, a 44.2% difference. From the beginning of March to the end of June, Obama's approval/disapproval held moderately steady. But then it happened. The President began calling for radical reforms to the American Health Care System. While reform is needed, this "change" that the President was peddling did not sit well with the American people.

On July 1, the President's approval was 59.5 with his disapproval at only 34, a difference of 25.5%. By July 24, little over three weeks, his approval had dived to 54.7, his disapproval at 41.3, a difference of 13.4%, a 12.1% difference from earlier that month. By the end of August, Obama's approval was at 51.2, with a disapproval of 42.4.

October saw an uptick in the President's approval, as he seemed to be mentioning Health Care less as he began to campaign in New Jersey and Virginia. But oh, how he failed in his campaigns there. After October, his approval rating never recovered.

January saw a huge decrease in the President's rating, with the difference between approval and disapproval falling to less than 5%. That month, Scott Brown upset the once-heavily favored Martha Coakley. Once again, the President campaigned for his choice, and once again they went down in flames. Coackley and Obama were brought down by his health care bill.

During February and most of March, there have been back and forth poll numbers, with Obama coming ever-so-close to be disapproved more than approved. But today is the day that it finally happened. Today is the day that Obama's approval sits at 47.3 and his disapproval sits at 47.8, or negative .5%.

Looking further into the polls, however, reveals something more startling. The three most recent polls, Fox News, Gallup, and Rasmussen, have the President's approval spread at -2%, -2%, and -10% respectively. An AP poll is also factored into RCP's latest average; yet the AP poll is the oldest one in the average and has the President at +7%. This means that it is possible that President Obama's approval/disapproval is skewed upwards.

Will the President's approval see an uptick, or will it continue its decline? I think I'll do anarticle on that some other time.

Cross-posted at Jumping in Pools


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Comments (15)

They factor in Rasmussen, t... (Below threshold)

They factor in Rasmussen, too? Isn't he the only one doing 'likely voters'? Seems like a bit of an orange in with the apples.

Where would his numbers be ... (Below threshold)
MCB:

Where would his numbers be without the abnormally high approval rating in the black community. 91% ????? C'mon

Where would his numbers be ... (Below threshold)
Hank:

Where would his numbers be if the MSM treated him the way they treated Bush?

Where would his numbers be if he actually held a real press conference? You know, one where real questions are asked and there's no teleprompter available with the answer?

Truth is, he's lucky his approval numbers are as high as they are.

Even the dim wits are start... (Below threshold)
P. Bunyan:

Even the dim wits are starting to catch on.

In time only the true communists like Steve Green will approve of Obama and his approval rating will drop to around 18-20%. (As probably about that percentage of people in our country really do believe in and favor communism, in my estimation.)

The scariest thing is a goo... (Below threshold)
davidt:

The scariest thing is a good part of Obama's disapproval rating is that his base is disappointed in his failure to get the Democrat takeover of the healthcare industry accomplished. If Obama finally succeeds in ramming his plan down our throat, or up some other orifice, the approval number will increase.

It's interesting to compare... (Below threshold)

It's interesting to compare the three different poll types on RCP: Adults (A), registered voters (RV) and likely voters (LV). Rasmussen is the only one that tries to single out likely voters, and has consistently had the lowest ratings for Obama. Conversely, polls of all adults, which include some non-registered voters, have tended to have the highest ratings for Obama.

The difference between stro... (Below threshold)
Wayne:

The difference between strongly approve and disapprove is probably more telling. A good portion of the weak opinion people are people who don't pay attention much to politics. So it would be a matter of getting information to them which usually happens around Presidential elections.

Even the nutcase Kirstie Al... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Even the nutcase Kirstie Alley is smart enough to realize this is a bad idea.

In Left-wing Panel on ABC, Former Cheers Star Kirstie Alley Speaks Up as Voice of the Right | NewsBusters.org

A mostly left-wing panel on Friday's Good Morning America forced former Cheers star Kirstie Alley into the role of speaking for the right. Liberal journalist George Stephanopoulos moderated a health care discussion with Democratic operative Donna Brazile and People magazine editor Larry Hackett. Alley surprised the group by opposing Barack Obama's plan for government-run health care.

Stephanopoulos casually asked the ex-sitcom star, "Are you rooting for this to pass?" After Alley firmly replied, "No," the surprised host blurted, "No? Why not?"

The actress explained, "Because, we don't have one trillion dollars! We can pretend like we do. But, we're in this huge debt and we don't have a trillion dollars."

Alley continued, "You know, I think that I would rather have a tax credit for being well and sort of rewarded for being well."
It's pretty bad when a loon like her has a better handle on economic reality than Obama. But then again, she's actually trying to run a business pushing weight loss products - so she understands that you can't run at a loss indefinitely.

We're at least $12 tril in the hole. We're racking up at least another $1.6 tril this year in deficit spending. The CBO's forecast trillion dollar deficits for the next decade - and somehow we're going to do just fine bringing in $2 tril a year or less in taxes... AFTER we pass health care reform we're going to SAVE $160 billion over the next decade!

And in February alone, the deficit spending amounted to $220 billion.

Kind of makes you wonder who's crazy, doesn't it?

"But then again, she's a... (Below threshold)
914:

"But then again, she's actually trying to run a business pushing weight loss products - so she understands that you can't run at a loss indefinitely."

Yes. In Barrys defense however he has never ran a damn thing accept ACORN and pawnsy schemes so we must cut him some slack.

"... so we must cut him ... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

"... so we must cut him some slack."

You go right ahead - but I won't.

Forgot the /sarc tag there, didn't ya? :)

He's surrounded himself with the 'smartest administration ever', supposedly, so you'd think it would include someone who could tell him that if your business is making $2 million a year, you're spending $3.6 million a year, you've got $12 million in debt, the banks are starting to get antsy about loaning you any more money, and it looks like you're not even going to be breaking even anytime in the near future, you ought to be thinking about what you're doing wrong - not looking to add on unneeded operating expenses that aren't going to do a blessed thing for you but raise your total cost of doing business.


"Forgot the /sarc tag there... (Below threshold)
914:

"Forgot the /sarc tag there, didn't ya? :)"

Why yes I certainly did.

Thought so! :)... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Thought so! :)

The different polls use dif... (Below threshold)
MelanieMap:

The different polls use different sampling methods and will naturally have different results. It may be helpful to look at these results at a specific time to get a since how people felt the day the poll was taken but little more. However, all of the polling data on Obama the last couple of months to a year indicate several serious problems exist for the Dems in November. First my analyses show about 83% to 85% of likely voters have very strong negative feelings about Obama. This level has remained CONSTANT for months. However, the number of likely voters that have strong positive feeling about Obama has constantly dropped the last 12 months from 65% to less than 45% this week. During this same time the polls indicate a consistent rate of change in those who will likely vote for him (and his proposed bills) in the future. Given these facts, the Dems and Obama have a growing chance of loosing both houses of Congress in November AND a growing chance the Repubs liberal and moderate will be replaced by conservative to ultra conservatives people. These data changes center on the Obama Health Care plan impacts. Other proposed issues like the highly unpopular immigration proposal are likely to cut more into his base.

Rassmussen Polls' Daily Tra... (Below threshold)

Rassmussen Polls' Daily Tracking, based on the intentions of likely voters, is the only one worth a second glance -- and the pretender's (dis)approval rating is at -23, today.

The Republican Party is a d... (Below threshold)
PulSamsara:

The Republican Party is a dead party - out of gas and out of ideas.

The GOP will split into two parties within 2 to 3 election cycles.

The strain being placed upon the American culture and political system will soon spell an intractable fracture.

After a short lived three party system we will then have four as the Dems will too split... and then much more minor parties.

By 2050 we will enjoy a true multi-party democracy.

If I'm so fortunate - I'll be a very old man - and imploring my children and grandchildren to register as I always have: No Party Affiliation.




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