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Porkulus, Unemployment and President Obama's New Love Of Off Shore Drilling

According to Veronique de Rugy at The Corner unemployment was not on the radar screen of liberal politicians when they passed the massive Stimulus bill last January 2009. If the odor emanating from the data is any indication, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid were operating a massive pork operation resembling a modern day swine farm back in the glory days of early 2009 when President Barrack Obama could do no wrong. As we suspected, none of the liberal pols were worried about unemployment:

[Re: Stimulus] Unemployment isn't a factor, but politics is. Your stimulus dollars at work.

First: The idea behind the $787 billion stimulus bill is that, if the government spends money where it is the most needed, it will create jobs and trigger economic growth. Hence, we should expect the government to invest more money in districts with higher unemployment rates.

Controlling for the percentage of the district employed in the construction industry, a proxy for the vulnerability to recession of a district, I find no statistical correlation for all relevant unemployment indicators and the allocation of funds. This suggests that unemployment is not the factor leading the awards. Also, I found no correlation between other economic indicators, such as income, and stimulus funding.

Second: On average, Democratic districts received one-and-a-half times as many awards as Republican ones. Democratic districts also received two-and-a-half times more stimulus dollars than Republican districts ($122,127,186,509 vs. $46,139,592,268). Republican districts also received smaller awards on average. (The average dollars awarded per Republican district is $260,675,663, while the average dollars awarded per Democratic district is $471,533,539.)

What makes this data analysis interesting today is that it arrives with the just released ADP jobs data, which not surprisingly, showed another increase in private sector unemployment when the expectations managers were forecasting better news:

ADP's employment report came out showing just a 23,000 decline in private employment during March, which looks like a substantial miss vs. the positive 35,000 gain expected by consensus according to Factset.

All of which raises the question why President Obama chose today to announce his bogus off shore drilling policy. Unemployment is not recovering and the President is failing to deliver the number one metric that defines political viability for a President during a recession: job creation. Voters are getting wiser by the day that this President cares nothing about jobs, hasn't a clue as to how to create them and is throwing any and every policy concept at the wall to see what sticks...as long as it conforms to his ideology . Welcome to the Rudderless Society.

HT: Allahpundit


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Comments (29)

"a 23,000 decline...which l... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"a 23,000 decline...which looks like a substantial miss vs. the positive 35,000 gain expected by consensus...."

Consensus of WHO? And yeah a -23k vs a +35k could be described as "a substantial miss". It's ONLY a 58k DIFFERENCE!

Don't know who the Democrats are getting their economic prognostications from, but the idiot had better get a new crystal ball and set of chicken bones. That "unexpectedly" is wearing as thin as "It's Bush's fault".

Follow the link to the Magi... (Below threshold)
RB:

Follow the link to the Magic 8 Ball...more accurate than the Obama administration.

Porkulous is just a huge sl... (Below threshold)
Stan:

Porkulous is just a huge slush fund for the Democrats, both national and state level. As the report states, very little of that slush fund money is going to Republicans -- national and state. Also the bulk of the money is not going to the small mom and pop business nor to any company that can supply jobs; it is all going to the labor and teachers' unions. Of course the Lamestream media will spin this downturn as a temporary glitch in a rosy Obama economy.

I remember during the Reagan years, Reagan gave out positive numbers and his detractors in the media and the Congress said that he was looking through rose colored glasses. Well it turns out that the only ones that are wearing rose colored glasses, are the very people that are protecting "Walks on Water".

Driving home from work this... (Below threshold)
william elbel:

Driving home from work this evening, mulling over BHO abuse of Israel and even Canada, and the abuse of power in ramming through unsustainable health care expansion! and then realizing, get over it, we have elected a insane person to be President. How will we survive 4 years of this?

It is too bad that there ar... (Below threshold)
kathie:

It is too bad that there are so few people in this administration that have ever had a real job. It is also too bad that this administration has such a distain for those who work real jobs. If this administration listened to real people they would know that chaos and debt are not job creators. So Mr. Obama, let's work on cap and trade next! Really this administration is pathetic. What we need is for the lot of them to go on a holiday for a few years.

We will make it. Actually t... (Below threshold)
Ron:

We will make it. Actually this is probably a good thing, it wakes people up from there doldrums. Been good to see.

I think we'll see his commi... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

I think we'll see his commitment to offshore drilling last right up to the point where the leases are signed, the preliminary exploration's been done, and the first production drilling starts. Then he'll have a change of heart, and publicly refuse to 'rape Mother Gaia for the benefit of the oil company's profits'.

Net results? Years wasted, no change to our energy situation. Wind and solar projects will be started with great fanfare, and quietly cancelled because they'd endanger the local ecology. CA will likely have brownouts and blackouts and fiscal catastrophies, but thanks to Pelosi and Boxer they'll be ideologically correct even while depending on the rest of the US to bail them out.

SEEMING to do something is far more important than actually DOING it, after all.

Maybe Barry's just finally ... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Maybe Barry's just finally pissed at giving all that oil money to the Saudi's. After all, the Democrats could be getting it. Perhaps Barry's next take-over will be the oil industry. His pal Hugo did it, didn't he?

At this point I am becoming... (Below threshold)
moseby:

At this point I am becoming convinced that dumbo couldn't find his ass with both hands...

When you cut through the ho... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

When you cut through the hoopla, here is what Obama's announcement added up to:

* Canceled five lease sales off the Alaska coast that were planned over the next 2 years. One of the areas is estimated to hold up to 77 billion barrels of oil, or more than 3 times US reserves.

* A "study" of the southern Atlantic OCS, with the findings due back next year....no leasing.

* Delayed a planned lease sale off Virginia until at least 2012.

Yeah Barry, DRILL, DRILL, DRILL.....maybe

Moseby, the reason he can't... (Below threshold)

Moseby, the reason he can't find it with both hands is, he needs one to hold the map and the other to hold the flashlight.

Garandfan -Your #8... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Garandfan -

Your #8 - you know, I didn't think about that. Could he really be so stupid as to think he could attempt a takeover of the oil industry also? Get it into a 'crisis', then 'save' it w/government bailouts?

Well Barry has Maxine Water... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Well Barry has Maxine Waters in his corner. She's already said that she'd "nationalize" the oil companies if she could.

Big fat "red herring". Noth... (Below threshold)
recovered liberal democrat:

Big fat "red herring". Nothing more.
If he was the slightest bit interested in oil production there are places he could remove all of the insane government regulation and oil would be flowing in one year. He is so pathetically obvious it makes your hair hurt.

If we just went ahead and c... (Below threshold)
Tsar Nicholas II:

If we just went ahead and conquered Canada then we'd have enough oil to last dozens of generations. Just sayin'....

As Senator Bennett pointed ... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

As Senator Bennett pointed out, and also GarandFan @ #10 above, this is NOT an expansion of offshore drilling at all, and in fact makes it LESS likely in the foreseeable future.

Classic Soviet-era propaganda technique - announcing one thing while implementing its opposite.

If there is anyone left in the US (besides Old Media and the CBC, of course) who believes anything Obama says, they should have their birthdays canceled.

It is never going to happen... (Below threshold)
poptoy:

It is never going to happen. You'll see. The Kenyan is up to something. Yep.

GarandFan, the "consensus" ... (Below threshold)
alanstorm:

GarandFan, the "consensus" comes from the same folks who brought you the AGW "consensus", and has the same validity.

Is there any plausible reas... (Below threshold)
Hank:

Is there any plausible reason we should believe anything BHO says?

He uses words the way the govt uses money.

"April Fools!" - Barry... (Below threshold)
jim m:

"April Fools!" - Barry

Democratic districts rec... (Below threshold)

Democratic districts received one-and-a-half times as many awards as Republican ones.

While I have a hard time getting riled up about this, there is an interesting point to be made here.

It doesn't rile me because handouts tend to go to the poor (despite what Democrats claim about Republicans giving handouts to the rich - those 'handouts' tend to result in them paying more in total taxes). And the poor overwhelmingly support Democrats - after all, wouldn't you vote for your Mommy/Daddy/ATM?

The interesting point is that, during seemingly every election, the media and the left rave on and on about how conservative voters are uneducated, unemployed hillbillies. But if the money is going to the 'needy', and Democrats consider Republican voters poor, stupid hicks - shouldn't they be directing more money to Republican districts?

I just thought of something... (Below threshold)

I just thought of something else...

Shouldn't the Democrats be trying to buy more votes from Republican districts to expand their control?

Why do they spend so much time, effort, and money buying off people that already vote for them at a 80-90% clip? Are they worried that without constant payoffs even the people that depend on their government cheese to survive might open their eyes, start thinking for and supporting themselves, and vote...republican?

Drill, Maybe, Drill ???... (Below threshold)
Jeff:

Drill, Maybe, Drill ???

If anyone thinks Florida's ... (Below threshold)
Oyster:

If anyone thinks Florida's Bill Nelson will go down without a fight they've got another thing coming. And who knows with Crist. He was against it before he was for it.

Let's not forget, too, our ... (Below threshold)
Oyster:

Let's not forget, too, our new overlords' thirst for control over vast swathes of private industry. This will pan out to be another attempt to over-regulate and control. This will be a "give 'em what they want with a whole lot more of what they DON'T want" scenario.

I certainly hope Obama doesn't have any illusions of winning over those he lost these past months. All he'll do is anger his far left base and when those who are lauding him for this decision find out what all the "particulars" are .....

So now Siezer is thinking a... (Below threshold)
914:

So now Siezer is thinking about siezing the oil industry? Who'd thunk?

"If there is anyone left in... (Below threshold)
max:

"If there is anyone left in the US (besides Old Media and the CBC, of course) who believes anything Obama says, they should have their birthdays canceled."

What the fuck does that mean, Jim Addison? Are you a member of Hutaree? Lamenting your lack of hemp rope, Jim?

You poor scared little child.


Don't be scared, max. No o... (Below threshold)
Oyster:

Don't be scared, max. No one is going to REALLY cancel your birthday.

pity that de Rugy forgot to... (Below threshold)
M:

pity that de Rugy forgot to take into account state capitals when doing her analysis: for a devastating takedown, check out fivethirtyeight.com.

-M




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