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Democrat's 2010 Problem Discovered By The Mainstream

It appears as if the concern about the 2010 mid term debacle that awaits Democrats in the House and Senate is going mainstream now. One of the AP's most ardent Obama apologists, Liz Sidoti, passes on some alarming news for The One's faithful legions:

The news is worse for other Democrats. For the first time this year, about as many Americans approve of congressional Republicans as Democrats -- 38 percent to 41 percent -- and neither has an edge when it comes to the party voters want controlling Congress. Democrats also have lost their advantage on the economy; people now trust both parties equally on that, another first in 2010.

Roughly half want to fire their own congressman.

And it could get worse for Democrats: One-third of those surveyed consider themselves tea party supporters and three-quarters of those people are overwhelmingly Republicans or right-leaning independents. That means they are more likely to vote with the GOP in this fall's midterms, when energized base voters will be crucial amid the typical low turnout of a non-presidential election year.

Does that sound familiar? And remember, this is an AP sponsored poll. A plethora of other polls indicate even worse news for President Obama and Speaker Pelosi. The over/under on Democrat losses in the House is floating around fifty right now. Nate Silver has an interesting graph (which I have linked to before) that tracks potential Democratic losses in the House of Representatives relative to the generic ballot count. Readers might want to bookmark that graph as more data emerges about electoral sentiment. Also, Real Clear Politics has some interesting comments:

So how bad could 2010 get for the Democrats? Let me say upfront that I tend to agree with analysts who argue that if we move into a "V"-shaped recovery and President Obama's job approval improves, Democratic losses could be limited to twenty or twenty-five seats.

That said, I think those who suggest that the House is barely in play, or that we are a long way from a 1994-style scenario are missing the mark. A 1994-style scenario is probably the most likely outcome at this point. Moreover, it is well within the realm of possibility - not merely a far-fetched scenario - that Democratic losses could climb into the 80 or 90-seat range. The Democrats are sailing into a perfect storm of factors influencing a midterm election, and if the situation declines for them in the ensuing months, I wouldn't be shocked to see Democratic losses eclipse 100 seats.

I'm not so sure about the 100 seat turnover (but keep your eye on the generic ballot and Silver's analysis), but I'm certain about one thing. There will be no V shaped recovery because there are no pro growth policies in the Obama / Pelosi legislative pipeline, much less passed legislation that will encourage employment recovery. And there is nothing Democrats can or will do in the intervening months to change this. As I have said before, we are witnessing a political implosion of monumental proportions right now.


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Comments (13)

It must be getting really b... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

It must be getting really bad when someone like Liz Sidoti "suddenly" notices that the Democrats are in real trouble. Sidoti usually writes 'knob job' articles about how wonder Barry is.

The Democrats and their lap... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

The Democrats and their lapdogs are waking up to the FACT that America is waking up!

Yes, some sites like RedState are trying to put America back to sleep...but the more Americans STAND UP and SPEAK UP, the more the ruling elite will LISTEN UP!

Do NOT listen to sites that tell you to stay home and shut up...get out there and be SEEN & HEARD!

WE are the Patriots we have been waiting for!

There will be no V shape... (Below threshold)
Clay:

There will be no V shaped recovery because there are no pro growth policies

I've been in a state of befuddlement since Q3 of last year. We manufacture in Taiwan and Malaysia (yes, I am one of those evil, greedy business owners) and I spend a majority of my time in those places. The recovery began here in Asia late last year and has been hitting all cylinders since the beginning of 2010. And so this is at the source of my cognitive dissonance: While I read of the ever-elusive economic recovery in the U.S., I contemplate frantic machinations to fill orders and push our suppliers for 'more and faster'. The myopia of American 'leaders' is evidenced by the fact that all economic discussion revolves around a global crisis that continues only for the effete economies of the west, those economies that have rushed, or are rushing, headlong into socialism. Even China gets it economically. Though they remain communist in some areas, they are embracing capitalism more as we move away from it.

What should frighten everybody even more than the absent U.S. recovery is that the rest of the world, at least the Asian world, hasn't noticed that the U.S. remains in recession. We've always been the engine that pulled the world out of the valleys, this time we're the caboose.

I've seen the future and I fear for my children. We are precipitously close to being relegated to second-world status.

re House seats being picked... (Below threshold)
davidt:

re House seats being picked up:

Don't count your chickens(or do anything else with them) before they hatch.

The MSM is busy trumpeting ... (Below threshold)
John S:

The MSM is busy trumpeting the "recovery." But those of us 20 million or so un- and under-employed don't seem to notice. I'm personally cut back to part-time as competitors in India are driving the company I work for out of business. So I look forward to starting over, from scratch--for the 4th fucking time--in whatever industry out there that will hire a 53-year old entry level worker.

But 20 million pissed off voters can affect an election. And I plan to vote against every incumbent on that ballot.

I can't help but wonder how... (Below threshold)
Tsar Nicholas II:

I can't help but wonder how many conservatives already have forgotten (or perhaps never learned) the harsh lessons of 1994 vs. 1996.

Sorry, kiddos, You've been ... (Below threshold)
Rolfe:

Sorry, kiddos, You've been outed.

Letting my mum be comfy in her bed.

The can be NO recovery with... (Below threshold)
serfer62:

The can be NO recovery without low employment. Not only are the unemployed not paying taxes they are drawing money out of the govorment.
.
Yeah, I expect 100 as a nice round number.
.
Don't forget the Kommiecrats still have m6 more months to piss off the voters...and they will.

I was saying 65 House seats... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

I was saying 65 House seats and 9 Senate seats back in December, now I see possibly 80 to 85 seats in the House and a possible takeover in the Senate.

Many of the things mentioned in the quoted article are understated and if a massive surge of disaffected conservative voters go to the polls in November it may be a historic election because all three factors he bases his article on will still be present and it will be the Democrat party that suffers their wrath..

It will be interesting and very gratifying to see many of the people that caused the economic problems faced today finding themselves without jobs

The economy IS recovering r... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

The economy IS recovering rather nicely - not great, below average, but it is looking steady. This is a natural effect of the couple trillion dollars Obama threw into the air, hoping it helped - the money had to land SOMEWHERE, combined with pent-up demand which has been building for nearly three years. People who still have jobs and think they are going to keep them WILL buy new cars, appliances, furniture, computers, even homes (although that market has a long way to go in the areas which experienced the heights of the boom and depths of the bust).

But trouble still is brewing. Jobs lag, as always, but the jobs in this recovery have been disproportionately government jobs. These produce no new wealth or investment. Taxes are going up next year with the expiration of the Bush cuts and the Obamacare taxes, as well as other taxes and fees. Obama wants to increase the tax on investment returns, making capital more expensive in the middle of a shortage.

Our huge debt is already being downgraded, and interest rates must rise.

These things do not argue for a sustained recovery.

The point of the previous p... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

The point of the previous post is that the dreaded "double dip" recession is quite likely.

The AP survey was of adults - which always skews a few points to the Democrats, since so many of their supporters are too stupid or lazy to register and/or vote - and included cell phones. The latter is going to be necessary, but also skews the sample somewhat toward younger people, who are less likely to vote at all, and will desert Obama's team in droves as they figure out they are the ones who will have to pay for the big "Hope 'n' Change" party, including the Wagyu steaks.

The point of th... (Below threshold)
The point of the previous post is that the dreaded "double dip" recession is quite likely.
Yeah. Every time I see "V-shaped" I think, "Aren't V's pointy on the bottom?"
The dumbocrats chickens are... (Below threshold)
914:

The dumbocrats chickens are coming home to shit!




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