« Why I vote Democrat | Main | Bumper sticker fodder »

Unemployment Trends Analysis

Over the weekend I noticed an post over at the Uncommon Misconceptions blog on what was termed oscillating unemployment claims. I started a post here to discuss the analysis but stopped. Some of the analysis looked suspicious. I needed to see the raw numbers behind some of the charts and do my own work before I felt comfortable discussing it. I was busy enough that I didn't have time to do this so the post was delayed and then ultimately cancelled.

Well Ed Morrissey at Hot Air did link to the analysis and as I would have guessed received a lot of "feedback" from people with questions similar to my own. Thankfully this promoted Ed to do just the sort of checking of the numbers that I had planned. I now feel confident in posting to a more complete work.

With October added, the trendlines do show a slight decline (I added a trendline for non-seasonally-adjusted claims, just to test the seasonal adjustments). But that decline is much shallower than the one shown for the chart starting in January 2009, which strongly suggests that the bulk of the slowdown occurred prior to Obama's stimulus taking place. Also, remember that unemployment is cumulative -- which means for a situation to actually improve rather than just being less bad, we need net job creation -- which we still haven't had or come close to reaching.
While the statistical trends are interesting I wanted to focus on this chart from the UM blog and specifically on quotes from President Obama.

initial-unemployment.gif

(Click on the image for a larger version of the chart.) Note the following quotes from Obama regarding unemployment--I've added sources for each one.

President Barack Obama said on Monday that his top priority was to tackle high U.S. unemployment. 11/23/2009. (source)

"The trend line right now is good and the direction is clear." 12/04/2009. (source)

"road to recovery is never straight" but "the trend is pointing in the right direction" 01/08/2010. (source)

"We are beginning to turn the corner ... the worst of the storm is over." 04/02/2010. (source)

Morrissey's analysis shows that the Obama administration is, at best, misreading the unemployment trends. I'll also note that if President Bush had made similar comments he would have been lampooned by the media for not being bright enough to read a simple chart. Add to this that after claiming to make unemployment a top priority, Obama instead led a holy crusade to pass a bloated health care bill that as of today 56% of the population (based on polling) still wants repealed.


TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
/cgi-bin/mt-tb.cgi/38814.

Comments (6)

"President Barack Obama ... (Below threshold)
914:

"President Barack Obama said on Monday that his top priority was to tackle high U.S. unemployment. 11/23/2009." (source)

By resigning immediately... Wishful thinking.

"The trend line right now is good and the direction is clear." 12/04/2009. (source)


Yeah...DOWN, DOwn, down..

"road to recovery is never straight" but "the trend is pointing in the right direction" 01/08/2010. (source)

.....


"We are beginning to turn the corner ... the worst of the storm is over." 04/02/2010. (source)

Translation: We are in the eye of Hurricane Hussein. The back half of the storm arrives when the BOOSH tax cuts expire.

I'm not saying that the Pre... (Below threshold)
Pefty:

I'm not saying that the President is being ideally transparent on this or any other issue.

HOWEVER, the graph you show tells us nothing about the trend in unemployment -- only in new filings. For example, that graph's slight upward trend in unemployment filers might be being counterbalanced by even stronger growth in new hires. That graph alone cannot tell us what is happening to the overall *unemployment rate*.

So, I find it a bit disingenuous for you to attempt to criticize the President's representation (or grasp?) of economic reality when you yourself are unwilling (or unable?) to produce the data that would be relevant to rebuking the President's representation, or, for that matter, to making your own point.

It is extraordinarily important that we hold our leaders accountable, so let's do it right, every time.

Well, that was "unexpected.... (Below threshold)
cirby:

Well, that was "unexpected."

Or have they made that a non-word yet?

That graph...If You fudge i... (Below threshold)
914:

That graph...If You fudge it just right, you'll see that Barry is using the U.S. economy to form a Kenyan mountain range..

He's homesick!

Unemployment rate (seasonal... (Below threshold)
kevino:

Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)
for Jan 2010: 9.7%
for Feb 2010: 9.7%
for Mar 2010: 9.7%

Yes, I can see a trend, too.

Barry said that after the f... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Barry said that after the first of the year the emphasis would be jobs, jobs, jobs. Instead he forced healthcare reform on us.

He promised once healthcare was done it would be jobs, jobs, jobs. Now they are preparing to force Cap and Trade down our throats.

More Hope and Same.




Advertisements









rightads.gif

beltwaybloggers.gif

insiderslogo.jpg

mba_blue.gif

Follow Wizbang

Follow Wizbang on FacebookFollow Wizbang on TwitterSubscribe to Wizbang feedWizbang Mobile

Contact

Send e-mail tips to us:

[email protected]

Fresh Links

Credits

Section Editor: Maggie Whitton

Editors: Jay Tea, Lorie Byrd, Kim Priestap, DJ Drummond, Michael Laprarie, Baron Von Ottomatic, Shawn Mallow, Rick, Dan Karipides, Michael Avitablile, Charlie Quidnunc, Steve Schippert

Emeritus: Paul, Mary Katherine Ham, Jim Addison, Alexander K. McClure, Cassy Fiano, Bill Jempty, John Stansbury, Rob Port

In Memorium: HughS

All original content copyright © 2003-2010 by Wizbang®, LLC. All rights reserved. Wizbang® is a registered service mark.

Powered by Movable Type Pro 4.361

Hosting by ServInt

Ratings on this site are powered by the Ajax Ratings Pro plugin for Movable Type.

Search on this site is powered by the FastSearch plugin for Movable Type.

Blogrolls on this site are powered by the MT-Blogroll.

Temporary site design is based on Cutline and Cutline for MT. Graphics by Apothegm Designs.

Author Login



Terms Of Service

DCMA Compliance Notice

Privacy Policy