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Re: Et Tu, Hillary?

My colleague Sean Chone Shawn had a hell of a good piece on just what may be going on With Secretary of State Clinton, but there is one aspect that he neglected to discuss -- and it's absolutely worth mentioning.

There very well might be something to what my associate discussed -- that Hillary might be seriously considering a challenge to Obama in 2012. But one thing that deserves even more focus is just how much of a "good soldier" Hillary has been.

When she was tapped to be Secretary of State, it was seen as a sop, a reward for her endorsing and supporting Obama once it was clear (crystal clear) that he had won the nomination. But ever since then, he's been treating her with exceptional contempt.

Which is nothing new, of course; Obama has no respect for those he defeats. He's stuck in perpetual campaign mode, and can never get past it. Remember the health care "summit?" John McCain reminded Obama of one of his campaign promises, and Obama's response was "the the campaign's over" -- with the unspoken "and you lost, so STFU." The only interpretation that makes sense to me is that Obama is admitting that he said all sorts of things as a candidate that he had no intention of following through on, and it's just downright rude to remind him of them -- so rude that he'll shut you up in short order.

But back to Hillary Clinton. Remember the deal they struck? If she helped him win the election, she'd be Secretary of State, and he'd help her retire her campaign debt.

As always, an Obama promise comes with an expiration date. This one, though, quite possibly broke records. Several months later, Obama did his part to help with the campaign debt -- he and Michelle each cut a check for $2,300 for Hillary. Oh, and he said a few words halfheartedly asking donors to help her out. Amazingly, she's still several million in the hole.

Well, at least she got to be Secretary of State, right? He kept that deal, didn't he?

Sure. But it looks like Hillary got out-lawyered on that one, because she didn't read the fine print. In no time her duties got whittled down, and she saw a good chunk of her power given to Obama cronies and favorites -- people who hadn't dared oppose The One and made him actually work for the nomination.

The Secretary of State is, nominally, our Chief Diplomat to the world. All ambassadors and diplomatic functions go through her office. At least, they used to. Obama spared no time in appointing "special envoys" who were put in charge of select regions of the world, moving them out of Hillary's authority and directly answerable to him. Hillary doesn't have to trouble her pretty little head about such concerns as "Middle East Peace" or "Iraq and Afghanistan," as George Mitchell and Richard Holbrooke are taking care of those pesky trouble spots. There's also a special envoy to the Organization of the Islamic conference, and Obama also made the United Nations Ambassador a Cabinet-rank position. In other words, Ambassador Susan Rice is essentially peers with her nominal boss.

Through all this, Hillary has continued on to be a "good soldier." She has not once publicly said a word of complaint, despite these heaps of insults and humiliations piled on her. (I guess 35 years of being married to Bill Clinton was damned good training for that.)

Only now, after a year of being Obama's doormat, are the old Clinton cronies and proxies starting to draw their knives in her defense. And those knives are viciously sharp.

If she is planning another run for the presidency, if she is seriously considering challenging President Obama for the 2012 Democratic nomination, she's certainly doing it right -- showing absolute loyalty to her president right up until she finds just the right moment to resign in protest. And that resignation will not be over all these petty slights, but a major failing by the Obama administration -- one she will be certain to have documented her opposition to and prediction of utter failure. It will be a departure of principle, not pique.

At least publicly.

Don't get me wrong. I still think she would be a lousy president. Her demeanor is far more suited to the Supreme Court, where she would only have to gain the approval of a majority of her former colleagues in the Senate, never have to stand for election and the approval of the masses, and wouldn't have to give press interviews. (She'd be a lousy Justice, too, but the confirmation process plays to her strengths, unlike campaigning.)

But she could cause some very, very serious aggravation to the Obama re-election campaign (which kicked off a year ago last November, the day after the election), which they will have so richly earned.

I ask you -- is there a more entertaining spectator sport than politics?


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Comments (58)

Sure Mrs. Clinton can reset... (Below threshold)

Sure Mrs. Clinton can reset her presidential ambitions just like she reset the Cold War with Russia.

"I ask you -- is there a mo... (Below threshold)

"I ask you -- is there a more entertaining spectator sport than politics?"

Well there is the Weekend Caption Contest.

Hey Lee, if Hillary challen... (Below threshold)
Eric:

Hey Lee, if Hillary challenges Obama who would you support?

"And that resignation will ... (Below threshold)
hermie:

"And that resignation will not be over all these petty slights, but a major failing by the Obama administration -- one she will be certain to have documented her opposition to and prediction of utter failure. It will be a departure of principle, not pique."

The major failing reported by the MSM you mean, Right now, his other failures are being minimized or covered up by the media; who are Obama's obedient lap dogs. The Euro crisis, which Biden has already offered billions of US tax dollars to shore up; the toothless Iranian 'sanctions', which the Russians are selling more and more weapons; the North Korean crisis; the emboldened Islamic terrorists; Afghanistan; Iraq; Hugo Chavez and his gang, etc. You name it, and Obama has blown it big time.

"You name it, and Obama has... (Below threshold)
Upset Old Guy:

"You name it, and Obama has blown it big time."

Standing there, right alongside Hermie. And this doesn't surprise me. It's been my experience that people who don't know what they are doing, but persist in doing things their way, generally do not experience a good outcome.

"You name it, and Obama has... (Below threshold)
jim m:

"You name it, and Obama has blown it big time."

I don't know. If Barry's aim is to destroy our economy, make us irrelevant on the international stage, undermine the rule of law and our electoral process he's doing a great job.

In short if his aim is to turn the US into a third world thugocrasy he's running ahead of schedule. He's got people already saying he should be made dictator so he can get the important work of reshaping American society into some socialist dystopia done without having to worry about silly things like the will of the people or the constitution.

Joke will be on Hillary when Barry cancels elections in 2012.

Remember Barry said that he would be President for "the next ten years or so." Perhaps that was a little Freudian slip and not just his typical ignorance.

She still has some debts fr... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:

She still has some debts from her last campaign:

Hillary Clinton Still Owes Mark Penn Hundreds of Thousands of Dollars

A generous donation will help persuade her to run against Obama. Donate now!

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Hillary might be a terrible... (Below threshold)
John S:

Hillary might be a terrible president, but I'd still trade her for the arrogant affirmative action idiot we have now. By 2012, when we're in year 5 of recession, there is likely to be some nostalgia for the Clinton "prosperity." Sure, it was a phony prosperity based on the Internet bubble, but I keep thinking that in 1999 I worked for a dot-com and took home over $500,000. Ten years later, my latest career has gone to India, I'm unemployed and fighting illegal aliens for the few minimum wage jobs left out there. Multiply my story by another 25 million unemployed and Hillary could have a good tale to tell in 2010.

If Mrs. Clinton had any pri... (Below threshold)

If Mrs. Clinton had any principles, she would have already resigned over the Obama jihad against our former ally Israel. Then Mrs. Clinton doesn't really like Jews either.

"And that resignation will ... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"And that resignation will not be over all these petty slights, but a major failing by the Obama administration -- one she will be certain to have documented her opposition to and prediction of utter failure. It will be a departure of principle, not pique."

Timing is everything. Ask Barry. It got President Affirmative Action where he is today.

RE: " In no time her duties... (Below threshold)
kevino:

RE: " In no time her duties [as Sec. of State] got whittled down, and she saw a good chunk of her power given to Obama cronies and favorites -- people who hadn't dared oppose The One and made him actually work for the nomination.

And, in another humiliation, her duties got outsourced to Former President Bill Clinton (e.g. trips to North Korea and Middle East).

Will Sec. Clinton challenge President Obama for the Nomination? I think so, and I think that she'll win. Obama is so incompetent that many people who voted for him are openly saying (now) that they would have preferred Clinton.

I hope she doesn't win. The only thing worse than the ideologue we have now would be a semi-competent socialist like Hillary. Both of them want to remake the country into a democratic socialist basket case, but Hillary might actually do it.

Gay, Jae, Jay,I'm ... (Below threshold)
Shawn:

Gay, Jae, Jay,

I'm always impressed by your headlines.

-Chone

Dammit, I tried to strike ... (Below threshold)
Shawn:

Dammit, I tried to strike through your names and it didn't work.

Grrr.

I commented extensively on ... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

I commented extensively on the original post on why I just don't see it happening for two reasons --

-- Hillary has not accomplished jack-squat in the past 18 months.

-- I tried to dig, and failed, but I would say it is possible that never, not even once, in US history, has a Cabinet member of the big four (State, War/Defense, Justice, Treasury) seriously challenged the President they worked with over a second term nomination. Definitely not in over a 100 years. I just think it is a bridge too far. We can forgive a candidate losing a primary race, and then praising the candidate they were just condemning... we get that, part of the game.

But to sign up and march with a President at that level.... and then turn on him for one of two reasons, a) shameless opportunism or b) acknowledging your own judgement on him was appallingly mis-guided, so now go ahead and "trust me to run the country", etc etc....

No, I just don't think it's do-able. She may try, but it ain't gonna fly. My $.02.

But if anyone can come up with a such a Cabinet challenge from the past, no matter how far back, do let us know.

No, I just don't think it's... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

No, I just don't think it's do-able. She may "try, but it ain't gonna fly. My $.02."

Andrew, WHERE the challenger comes from is not really relevant. This has to start at the very highest levels of the DNC, people like The Skull.

Splash Kennedy didn't just decide to run against Carter for shits and grins. An unopposed second-term run by the sitting president is a given within their own party. Anyone even trying it without the blessings of the honchos would label you TRAITOR! within your own party.

UNLESS..........

As with Carter, the honchos saw the freight train coming. Jimmah was a national joke. Yep, still had his supporters, but he was getting hammered for the failed rescue attempt, the fact the hostages were still being held and paraded before cameras, AND THE ECONOMY. He had LOSER written all over him.

But who to run? Someone who WOULD NOT SUFFER any repercussions "for splitting the party". Why none other that Splash (Genuflect) Kennedy!
Democrats DON'T criticize Kennedy's FOR ANYTHING!

For this to happen, the pieces have to fall into place. There has to be a Democratic Blood Bath this November. Barry has to be emasculated in the House and Senate. Essentially 'a lame duck'. All the Republicans have to do is NOT fuck up between 2010-2012.

Remember Billy Bob's "It's the economy, stupid!" Well in 2012, barring anything else coming up, it's gonna be 'the economy'. If the DNC honchos see another freight train coming. WHO are they going to offer? Barack Obama? IF the pieces fall into place, I don't think so.

Oh, forgot to add, Barry ha... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Oh, forgot to add, Barry has to run ON HIS OWN RECORD after 4 years in the White House. What's he going to do? Blame Bush? Yeah, that'll fly.

Great post. I was heartened... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

Great post. I was heartened when Hillary took the SecState job because it showed that the Clintons - no political naifs they, and they'd seen him up close - figured Buraq would crash and burn. There's only conceivable reason why Hillary would leave a safe Senate seat and take a job where she could be fired on a moment's notice: so she could pick a fight on some unpopular Obama policy, resign on principle and challenge the Messiah for the nomination, and meanwhile gain a basis for claiming foreign policy experience.

Hillary might be a terrible president, but I'd still trade her for the arrogant affirmative action idiot we have now.

Me too. Hell, I'd plump for Jimmy Carter right now.

I just threw a little in my mouth.

If Mrs. Clinton had any principles, she would have already resigned over the Obama jihad against our former ally Israel.

Well, she doesn't, so that's a moot point. In any case, it's too soon. Late 2011 is about right.

Hillary has not accomplished jack-squat in the past 18 months.

Of course not, but that's a feature, not a bug. She hasn't done anything that can be hung around her neck when it blows up. There's no HillaryDiplomacy, no Hillary-negotiated agreements, nothing that can go south, in fact nothing that really links her to the Administration. She gets to put SecState on her resume, but doesn't have to give hostages to Fortune by generating a track record. She'll stay in Witness Protection until sometime in 2011.

But if anyone can come up with a such a Cabinet challenge from the past, no matter how far back, do let us know.

Doesn't matter. First time for everything, and all that.

Why Jay, that would be ... ... (Below threshold)
hermie:

Why Jay, that would be ... "unprecedented".

Was doing a 'word associati... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Was doing a 'word association' game one night. "Teflon Don" was thrown out. The guy the FBI just couldn't seem to hang anything on. Anyway, it steered everything following into criminals in Chicago, which led to Obama (go figure) and spiraled into The GodFather movies.

"Keep your friends close, but keep your enemies closer."

The question then becomes, "Who is keeping close to who?"

Why Jay, that woul... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:
Why Jay, that would be ... "unprecedented".

Ah, but Hermie, would it be "unexpected?"

I have believed this was Bi... (Below threshold)
ChiefMinion:

I have believed this was Billary's plan from the day she accepted the S of S job. All that has happened is a few little pieces are starting to fall into place now.

Look, this woman is a driven, vindictive, selfish narcissist. It doesn't matter whether this has ever been done before or whether or not we think it can be done. All that matters is that she thinks she can do it.

There are a few interesting things to note. First, BHO actually did her a favor by taking most if not all her responsibility away. He did it to spite her, but in the end it will give her an excuse and denial for anything that goes wrong. Yet she is still getting (as pointed out higher up this thread) that nice resume item.

Timing is everything. Expect something to happen very late this year or early next year. Note that the press covering for BHO won't be a big deal. Cracks are already starting to appear. A lot of the Clinton machine is still in the press, lying low, waiting for orders. When the Clinton machine wants the right issue to pop, it will. Her resignation will start with "It is with great regret and sadness..." and off we go.

I wonder if she isn't carrying that campaign debt as cover. Starting to fund raise openly would tip her hand. Don't want to sound like a conspiracy nut, but I bet she has already lined up a LOT of money, very, very quietly. When she's ready, $ won't be a problem.

Finally, she hasn't forgotten that she blew (at least in her mind) the last election. Had she taken BHO seriously out of the gate, she surely believes she could have taken him out. She gave him too much life before taking him on. She will go to her grave looking for a way to erase that mistake. Improbable won't look so improbable to her if they represent a way to ease this pain.

It will be a daring plan fraught with dangers and long odds, but she is going to put her wager down and roll the dice. I'm stocking up on popcorn and beer for the resulting entertainment. At the very least, it will make for a great "made for TV" movie (a dark comedy?) when it is all over.

A lot of really good commen... (Below threshold)
Hank:

A lot of really good comments above on this.

Re: 15 Garandfan. Never thought of the Kennedy challenge that way. But it does explain why he couldn't answer the simple Rodger Mudd question as to why he wanted to be President.

Re: 21 CM, I too wondered about recent news stories about Hillary's left over campaign debts. Your thoughts make perfect sense.

As to the topic in general, if this does happen, I can't wait to see how Hillary handles the racism charge which will be the Obama's supporters last line of defense.

Andrew X: "But if anyone... (Below threshold)
P. Bunyan:

Andrew X: "But if anyone can come up with a such a Cabinet challenge from the past..."

Doesn't matter. Remember this is a HISTORIC presidency.

Unfortunately it's historic on many, many levels--not just the racist bigoted one the press likes to focus on.

"I can't wait to see how Hi... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"I can't wait to see how Hillary handles the racism charge which will be the Obama's supporters last line of defense.'

Hank, that's called 'Karma biting you on the ass!' The Dems have used that against conservatives since day one. 'Their just down on a black man in the White House' BS. It will be interesting to see how they now respond within their own party.

The Hildabeast has somethin... (Below threshold)
Stan:

The Hildabeast has something huge planned to take out "Walks On Water." Don't what it is yet, but dollars to donuts, it will be a doozy. Several scenarios come to mind, but will they be fruitful? One can only speculate at this time. Let me trot a few by and see what the fallout will be from the posters here.

1. She will take the bull by the horns and force North Korea to pay South Korea monetary damages for the ship they torpedoed back in March.

2. Force Hamas and the Hezzbolla to lay down their arms and sign a peace deal with Israel.

3. Root Usama bin Laden out of his cave in Afghanistan and force him to surrender to the United States armed forces.

4. Last -- but not least -- gives the Unholy Nation the boot out of the United State (very highly unlikely of the whole list, but one can dream).

I concluded after the 2004 ... (Below threshold)

I concluded after the 2004 election that by not running then she'd missed her moment, and I decided in 2008 that were she the nominee she'd lose in a landslide.

About the only thing I could have imagined that would make her once again a viable presidential candidate would be if a fellow Democrat failed so spectacularly in the White House that denying him renomination was the only thing between the jackasses and total, self-inflicted annihilation. The odds of that happening were just astronomical.

Even Obama's cratertude, while unprecedented since just before the rise of Oliver Cromwell, hasn't been spectacular enough ... yet ... to persuade enough Dems to throw him under his own bus.

Maybe November will change that, but if the trolls here are any indication I doubt there's anyone left on Team Obama who retains the capacity to learn from their mistakes.

Great arguments all, but I ... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

Great arguments all, but I stand pat.

The Kennedy-Carter analogy doesn't fly because Kennedy was from Congress, an entirely different branch of the gov, he was never bound at the hip to Carter the way a top Cabinet memeber is (whether he/she likes it or not) and, BTW, Kennedy was beaten by Jimmah Carter in the end, lest we forget.

I say it does matter "where the candidate comes from", because, in this or any case, a Cabinet member cannot run without causing massive and devastating upheaval in the party. Can Hillary win in November, almost categorically without any black voters? She better figure out how. And for those Democrats who are not Obama-til-death, how can they possibly passionately advocate Hillary without advertising to all of planet Earth, "Boy, we really f----d that last one up, didn't we?" "But vote for us now, we won't let you down!!"

Human nature is such that people are much more comfortable papering over their candidates flaws, pretending it's all evil republicans fault, and generally living in a fantasy world, rather than baldly standing up and saying "we blew it, big time", which is exactly what a Hillary candidacy is saying, with crystaline clarity.

Further to that thought, we are talking essentially about borderline or full-bore socialists here. Yeah, these are the folks we expect to stand up and say "oops, we got it wrong, the evidence is clear". Socialists! mind you.

Anything wrong with that picture??

No, they will choose to believe that their socialist God will not fail them, that their cultural/media/academic axis of leftist evil will rally with them and carry the day, and that they just might pull it off. And that is a far more desireable course for them to follow than standing up and saying, "Every reason we gave you to support Obama was wrong, and Rush and Hannity were largely right", and while they can pretend that is not what they are saying, it is what the entire world will hear if a Hillary challenge becomes serious.

I get it. I'm just not buying it.

Several scenarios come t... (Below threshold)
Mike G in Corvallis:

Several scenarios come to mind ...

The trouble with these scenarios is that (1) Hillary can't "force" bin Ladin, North Korea, Hamas, or Hezbollah to do anything -- if she could do that, far more competent people would have done so already. And if any of these scenarios by some miracle were to happen, Obama would take the credit.

Hillary will break with Obama over some major disaster of foreign policy in which Our President obviously screwed up:

* Iran sets off a nuke

* Iran declares war on Israel

* China grabs Taiwan

* North Korea strikes South Korea

* Russia grabs Georgia

* Pakistan falls to radical Islamists

* Something else    8-(

Hillary will reluctantly admit on Meet the Press, "I counseled him, I begged him to take another course of action, but he stubbornly rejected my advice. Although they have pursued many well-intentioned domestic policies, I cannot in good conscience continue to serve as Secretary of State for this administration -- the safety of the American people and our allies is too important."

Andrew X - the only cabinet... (Below threshold)
Big Mo:

Andrew X - the only cabinet challenge that comes to mind is James G. Blaine vs. Benjamin Harrison. Blaine was one always bucking for the presidency. He lost the 1884 election to Cleveland and then lost the 1888 nom to Harrison, settling instead on Sec State. Always jealous of Harrison, with his wife hating the president and his wife, Blaine resigned and attempted to win the nom in 1892. But Harrison easily won renomination, with McKinley getting the second largest number of ballots and Blaine generating almost no interest.

"Kennedy was beaten by Jimm... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"Kennedy was beaten by Jimmah Carter in the end, lest we forget."

No, Kennedy was beaten BY A DEAD WOMAN. Even the Democrats couldn't overlook that (most anyway). It was a "Hail Mary" play from start to finish because they knew Carter was going to lose and they at least wanted a shot at winning again. It was all pinned on the hope "he's a Kennedy", he'll reunite the party BEFORE November.

You have good points about the drawbacks Andrew, but miss the main thrust of Kennedy-Carter. It was SANCTIONED by the DNC. No one called Kennedy a TRAITOR! for running in a primary against his own party's sitting president. He suffered no political consequences. (Unless you call getting Jimmah mad at you a 'consequence').

So if the 'stars align' and Barry is VERY vulnerable, do the Democrats just take their lumps and go home?

Obuma will run. His ego com... (Below threshold)
914:

Obuma will run. His ego compels him to. Obuma will lose. The misery index will overcome white guilt. Bye bye Barry. Have a nice trip.

Hillary will not challenge ... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

Hillary will not challenge Obama in the primaries. To do so would alienate the black vote - which still approves of Obama overwhelmingly (against all but ethnic logic) - and without that large bloc, no Democrat can win an election nationally.

It's a delicate path she must walk, but I suspect she has thought it through. By leaving her safe Senate seat, she also left behind the taint of Reid and Pelosi. By serving as SoS, she has established some foreign policy credentials and demonstrated her party loyalty. Now, after the mid-term elections, she can resign "to pursue other interests" hopefully without a major foreign policy disaster on her watch.

But she will return to the "private sector," sell a book for a few million, go on the lecture circuit to make more money, and go around the country raising money for beleaguered Democrats, earning gratitude and chits.

If Obama continues his total failure and the economy enters the second dip, as it likely will, Democrats may force him to do an LBJ, in which case Hillary is well positioned to ride to the rescue. More probably, he will run and lose, she will continue her one-woman campaign to save the party and make friends, and be ready for 2016 to blame it all on whichever Republican comes in to clean up Obama's mess.

Grand - "So if the 'stars... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

Grand - "So if the 'stars align' and Barry is VERY vulnerable, do the Democrats just take their lumps and go home?"

No, they, as individual democrats, consider turning their support to someone who does not have the baggage of Hillary, the 20th century-ness of Hillary, the shamelessness of a Hillary who would join a cabinet, support it, then turn on it, and attack it, all while opining that it is all "for the good of the country", has nothing to do with personal ambition, and shows "my superior judgement and political acumen all the way through"... (and then expect us all to swallow such bilge), and to a candidate who does not have the sanction of the same DNC that gave us Obama and his Congress, that have got us to the point when even democrats must turn on them for survival.

They turn to someone whose name we know not at this time, who can divorce him or her self from Obama with credibility.

Is it a stretch for the democrats to come up with such a candidate? Yes, it is.

Unfortunately (for us), the Republicans may very well have to do the same thing, so it's evens.

That is at least a more likely scenario than Hillary mounting a serious challenge.

Jim A. is onto it. If Obama... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

Jim A. is onto it. If Obama were to "choose" not to run, or whatever, all bets are off. I talk entirely about a Hillary vs. Obama fight for the nomination 2012 scenario, which, even if it begins, will peter out quickly, for all the reasons I stated.

I have to side with AndrewX... (Below threshold)
Geoffrey Britain:

I have to side with AndrewX.

He's right in all of his points and especially in that Hillary, as Sec State is now far too closely aligned with Obama.

But most importantly, if things are so bad for the Democrats that Hillary thinks she has a shot at the Dem nomination in 2012, then NO Democrat can win.

No matter how bad the situation, Obama is going to seek the nomination, his ego and narcissism won't allow for any other choice. A percentage of the left will back Obama no matter what. And blacks will continue to back their historic President.

So you'd have a split liberal electorate in 2012, which given Obama as America's first black President, means a level of racial demagoguery and animosity we haven't seen before. So, even if Hillary beat a discredited Obama in the primaries, she couldn't win the general election.

There's only one scenario I can foresee wherein Hillary could be elected President in 2012. Biden dies, suffers a stroke, etc. sometime between now and 2012 and Obama offers the VP to Hillary. Obama then dies during the 2012 campaign or right after the 2012 election.

But if Obama is alive and able to run in 2012, Hillary will not be elected President.

"If Obama were to "choose" ... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"If Obama were to "choose" not to run"

Good points, but in talking 'far fetched', Barry not running 'for the good of the party'?

President "I", President "Me"?

Hillary! was described above as "this woman is a driven, vindictive, selfish narcissist."

Does that not also describe Barry?

If I can add just one last ... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

If I can add just one last (hopefully :-) thought...

Let us imagine Donald Rumsfeld or James Baker or Condi Rice, running against George Bush in 2004.... and getting serious support within Republican ranks, enough so to make it a contest. Just imagine.

Gee, ya think the press/commentariat would have anything to say about that? Ya think more than a few people would be able to say that it would be hard to give either side any credibility at all in such a case? Ya think President Kerry might be able to look back in amusement at the spectacle?

Because that is what we are talking about here.

Hey, I'd love to see it..... as I'd love to win the Powerball.

I ain't counting on either.

Andrew X and Jim Addision h... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

Andrew X and Jim Addision have great comments above, but I stand pat too. Jim's scenario, of the Dems forcing the Messiah to walk the plank with his very thoroughly romanced pooch, and then asking Hillary to step up, is another possibility. For my money, that's not really distinct from the "resign in protest" scenario. Either way, she'd have to resign (or be fired) as SecState. It differs in whether she campaigns overtly or covertly, but either way she campaigns for the nomination. So I think that this scenario differs in details, but not in concept: grit your teeth, take one for the team, buff the resume, keep your head down, bide your time, then strike when Obama is weaker.

The black vote is the killer. If Obama runs, every brother in the hood will vote for him and against Hillary regardless of what he's done or failed to do. So the Dems will do their damnedest to force Obama to do his LBJ impression, and then endorse Hillary, but it ain't gonna be easy, nor likely to be successful. Hoist, meet petard. It may work if the Messiah is tired of the job, or they've got his transcripts or something.

The particularly interesting scenario arises if a new, attractive Dem candidate appears on the scene. Then it may well be a discredited Obama vs. a grimy, shopworn, but experienced Hillary vs. a bright, shiny but inexperienced newcomer. It would be like a gladiatorial match, spear and shield vs. spiked ball on a chain vs. trident and net. I call it the "Orville Redenbacher scenario."

All good stuff. A couple o... (Below threshold)
ChiefMinion:

All good stuff. A couple of quick things. Lest anyone misunderstand. I have never ever said the "Hildabeast" (I love that) would win, just that she would challenge BHO. I want to clarify that.

Never ever underestimate the magnitude of her ego and her lust for the top job. It is not important that she can pull this off, only that she believes she can. Few if any are willing to tell her she can't do something or deliver bad news to her. That's a job that I suspect sends a shudder down even Bill's spine. There are also legions that would follow those two into an active volcano. A Quixotic charge at the White House is nothing for those lemmings.

Also never underestimate the ability of the Dems or leftists in general to have a knife fight among themselves. Look at Hawaii or Connecticut in 2008. All it takes is a little panic. That will start come November, if not sooner. Of course this sets aside the GOP's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I don't think Billary can wait until 2016. She's going to look too old. It's unfortunate and sad, but that's the way it is.

Look, if you asked me to bet on this you would have to give me SERIOUS odds before I would put up a dime let alone the rent money. Just laying out my long shot bleacher call.

Good points, but i... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:
Good points, but in talking 'far fetched', Barry not running 'for the good of the party'?

President "I", President "Me"?

Absolutely true, and a good point. But what if the polls show that he's going to get buried a la McGovern, Mondale, or Carter? Why not pass on the massive hit to the ego, and just never climb into the ring? I bet Carter wishes he'd done that.

"The particularly interesti... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

"The particularly interesting scenario arises if a new, attractive Dem candidate appears on the scene."

One wouldn't dare. You've got Reid, Pelosi, and Obama. Hillary's pretty much past the sell-by date at this point, all the spackle and paint they could throw at her isn't going to make her 'attractive'. Pelosi is WAY past the sell-by, not enough spackle and paint to make her palatable. Reid? No way - no charisma and no chance.

Obama... I don't think he's going to run - the job is no longer fun and he'll bow out gracefully some way or another. He'd be a fool to run again - there's a whole lot of stuff he started that's going to be hitting right about then, and he'd have no way to deflect it.

I don't think the Dems have GOT anyone else that could pull it together and pull it off...

History has a way of repeat... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

History has a way of repeating itself. Sometimes events dictate outcomes, not political strategy. Initial polling among Democrats in midsummer 1978 showed Democrats preferring Kennedy over Carter by a 5-to-3 margin. It looked like a lock. Carter was down to something like a 19% approval rating. Then the Soviets invaded Afghanistan and the Iranians took the US Embassy hostage. THE AMERICAN PUBLIC RALLIED AROUND CARTER! As pointed out above, some of the greatest damage came when Rodge Mudd asked a simple question "Why do you want to be President?". Kennedy's rambling incoherent answer was played over and over. The press also began digging more and more into Chappaquiddick. Kennedy was toast.

One wouldn't da... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

One wouldn't dare. You've got Reid, Pelosi, and Obama.

JL, you may be right, but I would add to your list above as "so far." (Pelosi and Reid are done, clearly.) After all, we hadn't heard of Chris Christie or Jan Brewer a year ago, so things can change fast. Also once Hillary breaks the taboo by running for the nomination, it'll be open season on Obama.

A young ambitious type could well throw his hat into the ring just to get exposure (which I suspect is what Obama himself was doing, and then to his discomfiture actually got elected). He might also be chosen to break a deadlock, be chosen as VP, or otherwise gain a lot of clout by throwing his support to one of the other candidates. So there's lots of upside for him. If I were in that guy's shoes, I'd do it.

This scenario only arises, of course, when people think the sitting President is about to get hammered, otherwise crossing him is suicidal.

GarandFan's right about kar... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

GarandFan's right about karma biting the Dems in the ass.

The entire Democrat Party is cobbled together from various narrow constituencies that fundamentally hate each others' guts. Dems pander separately to each group, and probably live in terror that the diametrically opposed Dem group will find out what they said. (Btw, I bet this is why Air America failed.)

Imagine a room half-filled with blue collar union members and tree-hugging eco-nuts, or Jewish feminists and Hispanic moms, or members of the black underclass with limousine liberals. (If they ever do this, I hope they put it on PPV.)

The Dems, having nurtured black grievance politics for generations now, are about to encounter a cleavage plane: black voters will want Obama pretty much independent of anything anyone can say or do, even if it costs the Dems the election. Karma is indeed a bitch.

Live by the sword...

Great post and comments. I ... (Below threshold)
HughS:

Great post and comments. I would agree with GarandFan on his early point in comment 15. Some group at the highest levels of the Democratic Party would have a say in this. Hillary is the only politician in Washington who is one phone call away from access to that power base.

Also, Hillary has an active and ready base that can be mobilized immediately. If she had not so blatantly dissed the caucus states in 2008 she would have been the nominee.

Also, Rahm Emanuel figures into this scenario as a role player, not nominee. Rahm has a lot to lose in a total Obama wipeout. And he his a Clintonite. He is the perfect example of the Democratic honcho GarandFan was referring to in his comment above. He's also been suspected of leaking to the press to burnish his image since the ObamaCare mess. A well timed knife in the back by Rahm (figuratively speaking, of course) could set the stage for Hillary.

"I ask you -- is there a mo... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"I ask you -- is there a more entertaining spectator sport than politics?"

This is shaping up to be one hell of a season. Should put it on commercial television. Bet it would top the final episode of "Who Shot Jr?".

Jay G - Your idea about Ob... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

Jay G - Your idea about Obama running in 2008 "just for exposure", and not really expecting to win, is dead-on, and I have been saying so for months. I sometimes wonder if he himself wishes it had played out by that plan, rather than how it actually has, because he is flat out not up to the job, and may even know it.

I wanted to shout out to Big Mo up there for digging up the James Blaine / William Henry Harrison race (of 1840!). I will assume that is the last time such a scenario as we propose here ever happened and, as Mo writes, "Harrison easily won renomination, with McKinley getting the second largest number of ballots and Blaine generating almost no interest".

When you sign up for a Cabinet position, you pretty much take yourself out of the running in challenging your President, and if he blows it, you go down with him. Simple as that. Maybe, mayyyyyybe.. a Secretary of Veterans Affairs or HUD could pull it off, but State, Defense, Justice....?? No way.

Not gonna happen.

I sometimes wonder... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:
I sometimes wonder if he himself wishes it had played out by that plan, rather than how it actually has, because he is flat out not up to the job, and may even know it.

Andrew, exactly right. Imagine the horror of his position, if this is in fact the case. It'd be like a passenger expressing a vague desire to pilot an airliner someday, whereupon the pilot comes hands him the keys (figuratively speaking), and parachutes from the plane.

I further suspect that senior Dem operatives kept him from panicking about this by telling him that they'd surround him with handlers to take care of most of the job for him, and that he only had to read from the TelePrompter.

Note that from this perspective the numerous gaffes - speaking "Austrian," the "liberation of Auschwitz," the "breathalyzer" comment, the Skip Gates fiasco, and previously the "redistribute the wealth" gaffe - all make perfect sense. His handlers couldn't prevent him from blurting out nonsense when he's off the TelePrompter and speaking extemporaneously.

Jay and Andrew - <... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Jay and Andrew -

"A young ambitious type could well throw his hat into the ring just to get exposure (which I suspect is what Obama himself was doing, and then to his discomfiture actually got elected)."

You know, funny as it may seem, that 'feels right'. Look at what the normal progression is - you do your time at a 'lower level' as a governor or senator, and then with that under your belt you're considered 'experienced' enough to run.

But Obama really shortcut the process, started running for President almost as soon as he sat down in the Senate. Maybe he was 'chosen' by the DNC as being the only really likely candidate, or whether he just decided to run knowing he was unlikely to win, but it'd look good on his resume later.

And then he won. As the dog chasing the car thought when he caught it - "What the hell do I do now?"

And his handlers are scrambling, improvising desperately. Yeah, maybe one day he'd have been ready (or not) but certainly not now!

There is simply no room or ... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

There is simply no room or need for Hillary as a presidential candidate. Three of her main bones of contention vs Obama in 2008 were that Obama did not include full mandates in his healthcare plan, didn't have a history of empowering women or experience in his foreign policy. All of which he has now met.

Obama has ben pursuing a continuation of BIll Clinton's neo- liberal corporate friendly policies, with so many Clinton appointments in his administration, any primary challenge that he would face in 2012 will definitely come from the left of the party, not from the center-right/more hawkish Hillary wing where he has been moving since the inauguration and will likely now in domestic policy, in order to minimize the threat of deficit. He has been more neo-liberal than 'Billary' without all of her negatives.

There is simply... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

There is simply no room or need for Hillary as a presidential candidate.

According to whom? The only answer that matters is "Hillary," and Hillary needs to be a Presidential candidate. Oh yes.

Three of her main bones of contention vs Obama in 2008 were that Obama did not include full mandates in his healthcare plan, didn't have a history of empowering women or experience in his foreign policy. All of which he has now met.

There was only one bone of contention: that Obama wanted the same job as Hillary. She doesn't give a rat's ass about any of the other "issues."

"experience in his foreign ... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"experience in his foreign policy"

Yeah, how's that working out. Barry is 'okay' there now?

You have a very low bar for establishing competence don't you? Diplomacy has been described as the 'art of getting another to do something that is more in your interest than theirs.'

Can you point out some of these 'accomplishments' please?

I especially liked the dive... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

I especially liked the divergence on "issues" between Obama and Hillary.

If Hillary thought that doing so would get her elected President, she'd come out for human sacrifice.

GarandFan, Obama's foreign... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

GarandFan, Obama's foreign policy accomplishments, many in a Hillary vein: appointing a strong woman as Secretary of State, reappointing the strongest person in the present cabinet, Gates, ratcheting up the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan (more success in the latter) by the mutual taking on the Taliban and Al-queda, appointments or reappointments of Richard Holbrooke, General McCrystal, General Petraus, withdrawing most of America's troops from Iraq, general lowering of temperature of Americas´ rivalries with our friends, notable exception of Israel, and, and enemies, the new Start treaty with Russia on nuclear weapons. Where are the differences between Hillary and Obama (unfortunately)? Hillary must run on a platform, on what.. that he got a heathcare plan passed and she conspiculosuly didn´t, on his appointments, including to the Supreme Court?

GarandFan, Obam... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

GarandFan, Obama's foreign policy accomplishments, many in a Hillary vein: appointing a strong woman as Secretary of State,

Ever hear of Condoleeza Rice? You're 0 for 1. (Besides which, appointing someone is not an accomplishment.)

reappointing the strongest person in the present cabinet, Gates,

Thereby validating George Bush's judgment. 0 for 2.

ratcheting up the conflict in Afghanistan and Pakistan (more success in the latter) by the mutual taking on the Taliban and Al-queda,

So he's better at making war than Bush? 0 for 3.

appointments or reappointments of Richard Holbrooke, General McCrystal, General Petraus,

Further validating Bush's judgment. 0 for 4.

withdrawing most of America's troops from Iraq,

After Bush ordered the surge - which Prince Hussein opposed - that cleaned up Iraq enough to allow troop withdrawals. 0 for 5.

general lowering of temperature of Americas´ rivalries with our friends, notable exception of Israel, and, and enemies,

This is totally delusional. The Brits are pissed about the Falklands and slights to Gordon Brown (thanks for the cheesy DVDs, Barry!), whom Prince Hussein "didn't have time" to dine with when he was here. Sarkozy has publicly characterized Buraq as a naive buffoon. Merkel treats him like a joke. He's crapped all over Israel, but bows to the heads of state of China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia, and gives hummers to Chavez. 0 for 6.

the new Start treaty with Russia on nuclear weapons.

BFD. Iran is the biggest nuclear threat, not Russia. And he hasn't done jack shit about Iran, other than offer to give DinnerJacket a hummer too, to which DinnerJacket replied characterizing Obama as an "inexperienced amateur," showing that DinnerJacket is paying attention. 0 for 7.

Nice dissection Jay. A+</p... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Nice dissection Jay. A+

Stevie, sorry not even a 'strong B+'
more along the lines of an F. Gotta
have standards ya know.

Steve C - Sorry, man, but t... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

Steve C - Sorry, man, but that was downright embarrassing. Seriously, dude... c'mon.

And about that "lowering of the temperature", here's a list of things worth pointing out that took place during the admin of one G.W. Bush.

Germany - Electorate threw out Bush despising Chancellor Schroeder, replaced him with much more Bush friendly Merkl, still in office.

France - Electorate threw out Bush despising PM Chirac, replaced him with much more Bush friendly Sarkozy, still in office.

Canada - Electorate threw out Bush chilly Chretien, replaced him with much more Bush friendly Stephen Harper, still in office.

Britian - Electorate made Bush-friendly Prime Minster Blair one of only two British PM's to serve over a decade in the last 100 years.

Australia - Electorate made Bush Best Friend Forever John Howard the second longest serving Prime Minister in Australian history.

Spain - Electorate threw out Bush friendy Jose Aznar in favor of socialist Zapatero, 48 hours after vicious Al Queda attack, in an act universally seen as astonishingly craven poltical cowardice..... Now socialist Spain is considered next on the list to suffer Greek-style economic and social catastrophe as a direct result.

etc etc.

So with all due respect, the whole "Bush screwed up our alliances with poor diplomacy and attitude" is a pile of unmitigated steaming horse---t. Bush earned the rabid contempt... of the European left and the media institutions that they infest. THAT, is who, among our allies, hated Mr. Bush. And like here, they don't have the slightest bearing on what the real and honorable people who do more than just observe and bloviate think. (And by the way, if you can get a European leftist to Vegas, take him to the roulette table and plant yourselves there. If he says "red", bet on black, if he says "black", bet on red. You'll come away a millionaire.)

Frankly, any American politician who earns the support of those people should automatically be looked upon with suspicion.... and whaddya know, there sits just such a politician, right there in DC!

Puh-leaze.

.... If she is planning ano... (Below threshold)

.... If she is planning another (pretense at) the "presidency" ...

Like the Pope is planning on being a Catholic when he wakes up in the morning?




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