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"Summer Games"

I tripped over this Donald Sensing post tonight and it's chillingly riveting:

My Israeli blogging colleague, Daniel Jackson, wrote that the belief in Israel is widespread that this summer will bring the "Summer Games," open warfare between Israel and its three existential enemies of Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. The opening gambit is a "two by two table."

Either Israel takes the first round or strikes first. Either Tel Aviv gets the first BIG hit or Jerusalem. While the obvious scenerio is with Tel Aviv, the market center getting hit, there is far more potency for Iran to strike Jerusalem hard. I'll come back to this later. No one here has any doubt that Iran has a big weapon and that they will use it. To play the American Game (like in 1991) will mean that Israel will have to wait for Iran to fire first. The longer that time plays out, the greater the risk that the first strike will be atomic. A Hiroshima sized weapon will hurt.

For Israel to attack first will immediately set off rocket bombardments from Syria and Hizbullah. The lunatics in Hamastan will also join in but they will be the first to feel the IDF fist. There will be no pulling punches this time. The question is whether the West Bankers will also open fire. The general Israeli feeling, given their training, is that the expectation is that all hell will break loose. ...

This will not be an IAF war. The IDF is prepared. After the missiles, expect the Israelis response to be strong.

In 2006 Israel made war against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon and in late 2008 against Hamas in Gaza. Both operations were very violent. Yet if the Summer Games are indeed held, those two short wars will seem like patty-cake.

Hezbollah and Hamas are both Iranian clients. So is Syria. The question is just how much destruction either Hezbollah or Hamas are willing to suffer without Iran getting into the fight. In my assessment, neither terrorist outfit will be willing to fight Israel on its own, or even in a coordinated attack, because they know that Israel will retaliate furiously. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu won't be reluctant to destroy his country's enemies and will do so much more competently than PM Ehud Olmert handled things in 2006. Hezbollah and Hamas probably realize that in the next war they have to win because losing will be final.

But Israel knows the same thing. And it has to consider that if the two "H's" start launching rockets into Israel then Iran will likely not be far behind (and indeed Iran's offensive may be simultaneous). So Israel will have to go all in from the beginning.

The priority will be Iran. Submarines that Israel has recently stationed in the Persian Gulf will strike. Israel's air force will overfly Iraq without interference from the US - by the time the somnolent Obama administration has figured out what's going on, Israeli planes will be clear. (Update, June 12: "
Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites." This is no surprise to students of Middle East politics. Remembers the Arab proverb,  "Me against my brother, but my brother and me against our cousin." Saudi Arabia and Israel are not exactly brothers, but Iran is definitely the cousin here since it is Israel's enemy and the Saudis' foe. )

Hamas and Hezbollah will be invaded quickly by the Israeli army while the IAF attacks Iran. But then IAF planes will join the fight and the two H's will draw the full weight of Israel's military. Israel will not hold back this time. They will strike hard and quick with the aim of destroying both entities once for all. Casualties among Gazans and Lebanese will be very high but this will not deter Israel this time for they know that their actual survival as a nation is at stake.

As for Israel's civilians, they will suffer in great numbers, too. Hezbollah's and Hamas's rockets are much larger, more accurate and more sophisticated now that two or four years ago. Almost every populated part of Israel is already in range of terrorist rockets.

This battle is brewing, the only question is when. Will it be this summer? Israel will take the first hit this year, but next year probably will hit first. And as Daniel pointed out, the US will not be able to sit it out. Our troops and naval vessels are targets for Iran if the balloon goes up at all.

Does the Obama administration foresee any of this and is it taking actions to reduce the likelihood? No and no. For this is a president of ceremony, not substance. For the first time, the United States has a chief of state but not a head of government. There's a dark cloud forming in the East and a blood moon is coming.

Donald Sensing was an accomplished military man and is now a pastor in Tennessee

I believe him also to be prophetic... in every sense of that word.

Crossposted at Brutally Honest.


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Comments (41)

"Does the Obama administrat... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"Does the Obama administration foresee any of this....?"

Hell no. Barry's got his head buried so far up his ass, he wings it every day. He's still of the opinion that just listening to his wonderful voice will soothe all problems.

Barrys way to busy working ... (Below threshold)
914:

Barrys way to busy working on his duck hook to be concerned with something so trivial. The gulf is being systematically poisoned and he dont care cept' to snatch a buck or 2 outta the deal.

Barry crack corn and he dont care, Barry crack corn and he dont care, Barry crack corn cause he dont care...Those joos can go away.

Like Jimmy Carter, Obama is... (Below threshold)

Like Jimmy Carter, Obama is an "enlightened" right-thinking liberal who thinks he can negotiate peace, but whose naive policies will instead bring about war.

Everyone has already seen w... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

Everyone has already seen where the (P)resident's loyalties lie.

He will be torn as to which path to take and in the end will be late to the game. Iran will most likely solve his indecision by attacking a carrier battle group and discover that their navy isn't capable of resisting a force determined to ventilate everything in front of them when they are told that its open season.

Si vis pacem, para bellum.

"As for Israel's civilia... (Below threshold)
914:

"As for Israel's civilians, they will suffer in great numbers, too. Hezbollah's and Hamas's rockets are much larger, more accurate and more sophisticated now that two or four years ago"


All the more reason to blow them to Kumbaya land first and ask questions later.

The evidence for Mr Sensing... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

The evidence for Mr Sensing's piece seems to come from this Jackson guy who is apparently hiking around Israel socializing with young IDF veterans. He is evidently listening to scuttlebutt and passing it off as "analysis." So that's my first problem with this story.

Secondly, the gleeful, atavistic tone of the piece is troublesome. The guy (Mr Sensing) seems to be almost wishing for the shit to hit the fan so that the Israelis can show how militarily superior they are.

And the tone of the comments above this one, and the last couple paragraphs of the excerpt itself, is worrisome, too. Seems as though some people are hoping for war so that President Obama can be proven, once and for all, to be the incompetent naif that Wizbangers keep claiming he is. Shame on you guys!

PS - I meant "troubling," n... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

PS - I meant "troubling," not "troublesome."

The nation of Israel will e... (Below threshold)

The nation of Israel will either win the war the Islamanazis and their every bit as psychopathologically-hesperophobic and as systemically-fascistic "international community" allies have, since 1948, waged against it -- or it will perish from the Earth.

My money, New York City to a single brick, is on Bibi's IDF!

Maybe you missed it BH but ... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

Maybe you missed it BH but the (P)resident is anything but a "incompetent naif" but has a hand directly involved in the BS that is going on over there.

Bruce Henry and Gmac,... (Below threshold)

Bruce Henry and Gmac,

President Obama has been thoroughly indoctrinated by the postmodern/progressive intelligentsia mindset that says, "we should always side with the 'minority' (darker skinned, different religion, etc.) people because they have been oppressed, and by virtue of their oppression they are clearer judges of morality than we are."

In some cases that is true, but unfortunately it masks the fact that many of the darker skinned among us are as evil as Hitler and Stalin. Jimmy Carter appealed to Ayatollah Kohmeini as a fellow religious man. The Ayatollah laughed at Carter and the USA and infamously concluded, "America can't do a damn thing."

I am simply afraid that Obama has fallen into that same trap, that he feels that his intelligence and his political and religious beliefs make it much more likely that despotic leaders will sit down and reason with him. In reality they are waiting for him to agree to some of their terms, which they will then interpret as weakness. Then the tanks will roll, and the missiles and rockets will fly. God help us all when that happens.

"Seems as though some peopl... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"Seems as though some people are hoping for war so that President Obama can be proven, once and for all, to be the incompetent naif that Wizbangers keep claiming he is."

Bruce you got any incidents where your Obamassiah has proved his "competence"? Other than in campaigning that is.

How's those Obamanomics working out?

This is all in the Book of ... (Below threshold)
Stephen H.:

This is all in the Book of Ezekiel Chapter 38 & 39.

Hey Bruce! How's that 'clo... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Hey Bruce! How's that 'closing Gitmo' working out? You remember, Barry's "1st official act"?

Re # 12:Matter of ... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Re # 12:

Matter of fact I do.

He got the Stimulus bill passed despite a vociferous campaign by the Right Wing against it. Ditto his healthcare reform. Looks like he did the right thing in the McChrystal matter. The perception of America's moral standing in the world has risen dramatically since his inauguration, as measured by polls in various countries both friend and foe. There are other instances too numerous to mention, but I don't expect you to agree. Too steeped in the reflexive Obamahate around here to think or see clearly, I'm afraid, Mr Fan. Pity.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not an automatic supporter of everything the President does. I'm not happy with his response to the BP oilcano, although not for the reasons most of you Wizbangers harp on. I think he should have fought for a public option in healthcare; and I agree with you guys that he says "I" and "my" too much, but that's a minor quibble. There are other points, too, but I'll make those clear as they come up.

Now, Mr Fan, care to argue with my point that certain Wizbang commenters seem a little too gleeful about the possibility of all-out war in the Middle East?

I don't know much about Isr... (Below threshold)
OLDPUPPYMAX:

I don't know much about Israel's nuclear capabilities, but her nuke subs are EACH capable of destroying most of the Middle East. No attack on Israel itself would eliminate that threat. Muslims would have to hope that Israel would remain the sane, "evolved" power it has always been. That is, that Israel would simply TAKE the massive hit and death toll without significant response. Were I in Bibi's shoes, those Islamic terrorist nation would be wrong.

"He got the Stimulus bill p... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"He got the Stimulus bill passed despite a vociferous campaign by the Right Wing against it. Ditto his healthcare reform."

Yeah, that "Stimulus" is really working out well, isn't it? As for the health care "reform"; did you notice that Barry signed off on the "Doc Fix"? You know, the money they WERE NOT going to give doctors for Medicare patients in order to REDUCE medical costs?

As for the glee over a mid-east war, I think that's just your interpretation. Most believe that Barry's actions have INSURED that such a conflict will occur. Nature abhors a vacuum, and Barry has left a big one in the mid-east. Just who does Hamas, Syria and Iran have to fear? Barack Obama? Hahahahahaha!!!

Barry is so impotent as a l... (Below threshold)
914:

Barry is so impotent as a leader on the world stage. I am so embarrased for him and us.

November cant come soon enough.

Hey Bruce, the fact that he... (Below threshold)
Stephen H.:

Hey Bruce, the fact that he says "I" and "my" to much really does go to the content of his character, and that kind of character is not good for someone who has the power he does.

First OHbama is a racist.<b... (Below threshold)
serfer62:

First OHbama is a racist.
Secound he is a Kommunist.
Third he is an elitest.
This allows him to be arrogant, cruel, illegal, idiotic.
The Kommiecrat party will die under him. States will regain State Rights. Cirizens will be more demanding of legitimate legal leadership, more independance and freedom.
In the end this farce of a president will bring Americans to finally say "Enough".

BH - "The perception ... (Below threshold)
Marc:

BH - "The perception of America's moral standing in the world has risen dramatically since his inauguration, as measured by polls in various countries both friend and foe."

Do ya think?

If so you're sadly mistaken.

Not according to the latest Pew Research on favorability.

Eygpt as gone from 27 to 17 in the last year.
Jordon 25 to 21%
Lebonon 55(!) drops to 52
France, Germany and Britain have all droped in the last year.

Indonesia, the largest Muslim democracy in the world, dropped 4 points since 2009

India 10 point drop.

I cited and linked to my poll, where's yours?

No need for me to link to a... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

No need for me to link to a new poll, Genius, as yours proves my point. God, what a fool you are, Marc.

Look first at the title, "Obama more popular abroad than at home; global image of US continues to benefit."

Then look at the data:

2000 2007 2010

UK 83% 51% 65%

Spain 50% 34% 61%

Poland 86% 61% 74%

China n/a 34% 58%

Japan 77% 61% 66%

Nigeria 46% 70% 81%


See what happened? The populations of these countries apparently felt pretty good about the US under Bill Clinton. Their opinion of our country dropped precipitously under Bush (with the exception of Nigeria) and improved, often quite dramatically, under Obama.

The major exceptions appear to be Islamic countries. Perhaps they are disappointed that Obama has not abandoned Israel (as you guys are always accusing him of doing), and continues to fight a war in Afghanistan.

But good job, as always, Marc, in finding and posting a link that proves my point and disproves your own. And congratulations on getting through a whole comment without a reference to anuses or excrement, as is your WONT.

Nice spin asshole (happy no... (Below threshold)
Marc:

Nice spin asshole (happy now?) also funny how you ignore Britain dropped in the last year.

Along with France and Germany, both in the last year when you can't claim any connection to Slick Wille or Bush.

You can also pooh-pooh the signicicance of drops in Indonesia, obummer's birth home, and blame other drops in Muslim countries on some spurious BS aboout Israel all you care to.

The facts are, our strongest and traditional allies now look at him as something less then advertised.

The same is true of the Muslim coutries who were all a-twitter after his Cairo speech that was, as usual, full of BS.

BTW asshole... I also note ... (Below threshold)
Marc:

BTW asshole... I also note you didn't mention the other half of the Pew report.

You know the one: "Will Do Right Thing in World Affarirs."

obummer scores negative marks across the board in the last year ranging from -12 in Central and South America, to -10 in Turkey and China, plus a buttload of -3's, -4's and a couple -9's.

But hey... obummer got one plus mark, plus 1... in wait for it...

Kenya. You might be smart enought you figure out why.

P.S. I'm stilling waiting to see your poll you claimed to have access to.

Bruce Henry,Obama ... (Below threshold)
Rick Caird:

Bruce Henry,

Obama did get the stimulus bill passed. But, as you recall, it was crafted by Pelosi and Reid, not the administration. It was kind of a "hands off" bill. But, the whole $850 billion did nothing. No one, except Biden, is out there saying how great it has worked out. Almost to a person, the electorate considers the stimulus to be a very expensive failure. I wouldn't push that one, if I were you.

Then we have the national Health Care Bill. At last count 63% of likely voters hated the bill and opposed it. We have had a weekly dribbling out of one fact and another that shows the proponents lied about the cost, the effect (you can keep your insurance), and bunches of other things. I would not be proud of forcing through legislation opposed by the voters. That is not a good strategy.

I dispute that America's moral standing has improved under Obama. In fact, even our former allies now toy with him. Ask England. Ask Germany. Ask France. And, above all, ask Eastern Europe about the missile defense shield. Russia likes Obama because he is a pushover. He is getting tested left and right and he is failing those tests. Our enemies love having a 98 pound weakling as President.

Rick Caird - "I dispu... (Below threshold)
Marc:

Rick Caird - "I dispute that America's moral standing has improved under Obama."

UN human rights whine-babies would dispute it also given their panties are in a bunch over U.S. drone stikes they claim are "a licence to kill without accountability."

Same can be same of a few euro-wennies and more than a few code pinkos who have taken to protesting obummer and shillary.

Well, I'm looking at Marc's... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Well, I'm looking at Marc's poll and see that, almost without exception, America's standing in the world has improved in comparison to how we were perceived under GWB. Has some of the sheen worn off, and so his numbers are lower in 2010 than in 2009? Indubitably. But they are uniformly higher than under the previous administration.

I was asked to name some instances where Obama showed competence. I did so. You guys may not like the results, but he did, indeed, competently achieve big legislative victories over a determined and well-funded opposition.

BTW, Marc, most of the "drops" you notice in the poll YOU cited are within, or close to, the margin of error.

Oh, this just gets hilariou... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Oh, this just gets hilariouser and hilariouser.

In the "other half" of the Pew report Marc links to, we see comparisons of how citizens of other countries think of how America can be expected to behave in the world. The question was how confident the respondents were that the US would do the right thing in the world. I'll post the Bush numbers on the left side of the slash, and the Obama numbers on the right side, mmkay? The Obama numbers are from 2010.

France 13/87
Germany 14/90
UK 16/84
China 30/62
Egypt 11/33
Turkey 2(!)/23
S. Korea 30/75
Indonesia 55/73
Argentina 7/49

It seems the citizens of the world are VASTLY more confident that Obama will "do the right thing" than they were of Bush.

I repeat, Marc, you're a fool.

BH - "Well, I'm looki... (Below threshold)
Marc:

BH - "Well, I'm looking at Marc's poll and see that, almost without exception, America's standing in the world has improved in comparison to how we were perceived under GWB."

You keep ignoring the drop from '09-10, not so funny how that works.

BH - "I'll post the Bush numbers on the left side of the slash, and the Obama numbers on the right side, mmkay? The Obama numbers are from 2010."

Again they dropped DURING obummer's short term in office dispite he being born in one of the countries, kissing many asses in Cairo, having family ties to one (oopsy that went up ONE point) ttc... etc...

Bet you spend a buttload of time whistling thru graveyards also.

BH - "I was asked to name some instances where Obama showed competence. I did so."

Sure you did but what specifiaclly did he do woith the health care bill other than talk? The entire thing was written by felosi and dingy harry obummer did nothing but jawbone and sign the final bill.

And HE'S STILL trying to sell the piece of shit.

Stimulas well again he did noting other than talk and sign, and dispite what the claim is above the vast majority of it was written by the Apollo Alliance.

Did obummer write the financial dung heap? No, he only signed it.

BH - "Oh, this just gets hilariouser and hilariouser."

Looking in the mirror again?

Asshole.

OK, Jester Marc.No... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

OK, Jester Marc.

Now YOU look at the differences between say, Bush's numbers in 2002 and 2008. Or, just for giggles, the 3 years rolling from 2008 to 2010. We have:

UK - 53%, 69%, 65%
France - 42%, 75%, 73%
Germany - 31%, 64%, 63%
Spain - 33%, 58%, 61%

Which years would you say saw the more significant increase/decrease, Marc?

It's obvious there is no way to spin your way out of this, Marc. It's better for you to just hope as few of your fellow Wizbangers see this as possible. You posted a poll that completely disproves your point and proves mine. I didn't tell you to go and do something so blindingly stupid. You did it on your own, all by yourself.

But I will say, in your defense, that using terms like "obummer" and "felosi" and "dingy harry" really help illustrate how intelligent your comments really are. You're probably the best writer in your GED class at night school. But you're the dumbest commenter on Wizbang, bar none.

And STILL obsessed with your favorite body part.

The guy upthread who called... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

The guy upthread who called "OHbama" a "Kommiecrat," a "Kommunist," a racist, and an "elitest," looks like a Jeopardy champion next to you, Marc.

BH - "Now YOU look at... (Below threshold)
Marc:

BH - "Now YOU look at the differences between say, Bush's numbers in 2002 and 2008. Or, just for giggles, the 3 years rolling from 2008 to 2010. We have:"

You know I really have given you way too much credit.

Obviously you're far dumber, with an ability to post specious arguments in the process of ignoring the obvious far in excess than anything I thought possible.

Sorry for overestimating your abilities.

Where'd you learn THAT argu... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Where'd you learn THAT argument technique from, Marc? DJ Drummond?

Comment # 29:"kiss... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Comment # 29:

"kissing many asses"
"buttload"
"piece of shit"
"dung heap"
"asshole"

All in one comment. Seek help.

Need more, I got a million ... (Below threshold)
Marc:

Need more, I got a million of'em and they all fit you?

Asshat.

"Where'd you learn THAT argument technique from," i.e. the one you continue to invoke "it's Bushes fault," when the premise of the entire post is falling approval of obummer in the world.

The poll clearly shows it has, you continue to stuff strawmen.

I'm sure you do, Marc. ... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

I'm sure you do, Marc.

They occupy your dreams and intrude on every waking thought, don't they?

But let me make it simple for you, Jester Marc. My assertion was, in part, that the perception of America has improved since Obama took office. In response, you cited the Pew poll.

But, lo and behold, the Pew poll proved exactly what I had claimed - that the perception is better now than it was when Bush was President. See, I never claimed that it hadn't fallen some from last year (although many of the "drops" you cite are within standard sampling error range.)

Indeed, the poll showed that, in most countries sampled, the perception was high in 1999/2000, went to hell from 2001-2008, and shot WAY up in 2009, and has remained relatively high even after a year and a half of the new reality. I don't have the results in front of me right now -- is there a SINGLE COUNTRY that shows higher numbers for Bush in 2008 than Obama in 2010? Even ONE?

Now, turn around, sit up straight on that stool, face the corner, and straighten up that dunce cap. And write 100 times on the blackboard, "I will keep my thoughts above the waist!"

Here's an interesting fact,... (Below threshold)
John S:

Here's an interesting fact, of our 11 aircraft carriers, currently only 5 are out to sea. Two of those are surrounding North Korea. Two are off the coast of Iran. As for wild rumors, Israel is said to be massing planes in Saudi Arabia and in the Caucasus. Not sure if I believe this, but I'm keeping the fuel tank of every one of my vehicles full. Just in case...

BH - "But, lo and beh... (Below threshold)
Marc:

BH - "But, lo and behold, the Pew poll proved exactly what I had claimed - that the perception is better now than it was when Bush was President. "

And in almost each case you drag in the numbers for Bush.

And BTW, FOAD you puss infested sphincter. (happy now?)

Alright, now, Marc. Write i... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

Alright, now, Marc. Write it FIVE hundred times.

If you straighten up and fly right we'll let you go on to the ninth grade.

See, Jester Marc, if I had ... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

See, Jester Marc, if I had said, "Obama's poll numbers are up and continue to improve," you would have a point. But that's not what I asserted, maroon. So you don't.

I said that the numbers have improved since Obama took office.

And they have.

I never claimed that they hadn't slipped a little. Indeed I addressed it SEVERAL TIMES.

You can relax. Your record is unbroken. You STILL have never said anything smart on the Internet.

BH - "I said that the... (Below threshold)
Marc:

BH - "I said that the numbers have improved since Obama took office. And they have. I never claimed that they hadn't slipped a little. Indeed I addressed it SEVERAL TIMES."

Gee BH, I hate to be the one to point out the obvious but, your coment #15 makes you an unbashable and provable liar to the inth degree:

The perception of America's moral standing in the world has risen dramatically since his inauguration, as measured by polls in various countries both friend and foe.
Congratulations, you've proven once and for all (not that it will stop you from doing it again) your head is firmly planted within your alimentary canal.
God damn, Marc.I s... (Below threshold)
Bruce Henry:

God damn, Marc.

I said that "the perception of America's moral standing in the world has risen dramatically since his inauguration"......AND IT HAS, AS SHOWN BY THE POLL YOU CITED.

YES, it has dropped a few points from 2009 to 2010, more than a few in a couple of countries. But it is STILL WAY HIGHER than it was before he took office. It ain't rocket surgery, Marc. Face it. You were wrong, and you proved it yourself.

Totally gratuitously, too. Here's a situation tailor-made for the saying, "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt."

It's not like it's the first time you ever made a flaming spectacle of yourself on Wizbang. Next time, THINK before you post, Einstein.

By the way, it's "the nth degree," not "the inth degree," you illiterate simian.




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