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Could the Consensus on This Year's Hurricane Season Be Wrong Again?

The mainstream media have been citing climate-prediction sources to establish "consensus" on a severe hurricane season this summer with a possible record-breaking number of storms striking the continental U.S. The main impetus for this news, of course, is a hopeful opportunity on their behalf for a new push for Global Warming agendas. After all, the President and liberals in Congress have been stymied in their efforts to institute wide-sweeping climate change reform (cap-and-trade) by the recent scandals involving manufactured evidence by Global Warming "researchers", most notably the debacle at East Anglia. Despite a woeful record in predicting hurricane activity, this year's galvanization of opinion is stronger than ever.

From AccuWeather.com on April 8:

AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center meteorologists, led by Chief Long-Range Meteorologist and Hurricane Forecaster Joe Bastardi, are calling for a much more active 2010 season with above-normal threats on the U.S. coastline. "This year will be an extreme season," said Bastardi, who is forecasting eight U.S. landfalls. "Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

From the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on May 27:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the parent agency of the National Hurricane Center, released an especially bullish forecast. They're predicting up to 23 names storms with up to 14 becoming hurricanes, 7 of which are major. That's an incredibly active year considering the Atlantic basin sees about 10 names storms a year.

From the National Hurricane Center May 27:

Known climate signals and evolving oceanic and atmospheric conditions, combined with dynamical model forecasts, indicate a high likelihood of above normal activity during the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. This outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season, only a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and a 5% chance of a below normal season.

From Reuters on June 2:

The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be even more active than feared, leading U.S. forecasters said on Wednesday as they predicted 10 hurricanes, five of them major, with a 76 percent likelihood that a major hurricane would hit the U.S. coastline. Increasing a previous estimate for a "very active" season, the leading CSU storm research team founded by hurricane forecast pioneer William Gray said the six-month season beginning on June 1 would likely see 18 named tropical storms.

From the Daily Green on June 30:

Forecasters are unanimous in their assessment of the 2010 hurricane season: It is likely to be a dangerously active storm season, on par with 2005, the worst hurricane season on record.


We are now a quarter of the way into the hurricane season and we have seen only one named storm in the Atlantic. We are now seeing the emergence of a stronger-than-normal Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that has blanketed much of the eastern and central Atlantic Ocean. This extremely dry and dusty layer of air suppresses the formation of tropical cyclones by promoting strong downdrafts around storms and cutting off moisture sources. The SAL is extensive right now, extending all the way across the ocean to Cuba. While most SALs last only a few days, large ones such as we see now often take weeks to dissipate. This renders the usually busy intertropical convergence zone free of storms for the rest of this month.

August and September are the peak months for hurricane development in this part of the world and the SAL will be less prominent by that time. But the loss of June and July digs a big hole in the forecasts of a record-breaking hurricane season. The mainstream media have been all over the above-normal seasons, but seem to forget all about the less active ones. Moreover, they have failed to point out how many times the consensus among forecasters has been wrong. From the perspective of the global warming issue, we must remain cognizant of the fact that predictions of above-average numbers of hurricanes (presumably the result of global warming) are not quite the same as actually seeing them come to fruition.


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Comments (16)

"The 2010 Atlantic hurri... (Below threshold)
914:

"The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be even more active than feared, leading U.S. forecasters said on Wednesday."

How does one become a 'leading forecaster?' Either storms or it doesn't? 50/50 odds of being right or wrong. Barry would like to have those odds this November, that is, if that damn hole ever gets plugged.

As for global socialist taxation for elites AKA crap-n-trade. It's histo Barry! Just like your atrocious power grab ways are over soon.

Once again we see that Glob... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Once again we see that Global Warming is faith based and not scientific.

I'm sure the 'forecasters' ... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

I'm sure the 'forecasters' will get the numbers right. Right after the end of the hurricane season. Assuming of course, that they can count.

The last forecast for a horrendous hurricane season fell flat on it's face. I'm surprised they're dumb enough to do this again.

In the world of the liberal... (Below threshold)
Caesar Augustus:

In the world of the liberal media/academia cabal the word "consensus" merely is a synonym for "agenda."

It doesn't actually matter ... (Below threshold)
Mr Evilwrench:

It doesn't actually matter to them when they're wrong. Exactly what they say doesn't matter. They're not trying to report news, after all, just keep the hysteria flowing. Afterward, the only ones that remember these guys were wrong will be us; the LSM won't do a retrospective. They'll be too busy moving on to hype the next crisis, assuming the sheeple will follow along credulously.

It never hurts to under-est... (Below threshold)
Dan:

It never hurts to under-estimate a hurricane season. The worst case scenario is you and your family come up with a plan and purchase kits that can help later on. However most people under prepare themselves not because they don't take these thing seriously but because they don't know where to go to obtain kits.

This is why my partners and I created 1800PREPARE.COM (http://www.1800prepare.com) to foster a culture of preparedness throughout the United States. Our website is home to a wide array of preparedness/emergency kits, expert information and articles that will help people turn awareness into preparedness.

I have created a coupon code on our website called Wizbang which will get you, your readers, friends, family and anyone else you want to be prepared, 10% off any emergency kit they wish to purchase. It should be noted that we donate a percentage of the sales we receive to preparedness companies that help prevent and clean up after disasters. So by preparing yourself you are doing your part to prepare and protect the world.

Active or inactive?I... (Below threshold)
tomg51:

Active or inactive?
I'm going with whatever Paul the Octopus chooses.

It's early in the season. ... (Below threshold)
CDR M:

It's early in the season. The ingredients were there for an abnormal start to hurricane season but it's pretty much near normal now. The teeth of the season is Aug/Sept so keep your alert level up. This season is different for a whole new reason, the oil in the Gulf. All it takes is for one good one in GOM to really mess up the coast. We dodged a bullet with Alex when it went West.

Their normal scientific ind... (Below threshold)
Don L:

Their normal scientific indicators are wrong because of..tah dah! Global Warming. Whatever happens there are three pat answers from the socialist left:

It's global warming

We need to raise taxes (on the rich)

Bush did it!

Could this Saharan wind thi... (Below threshold)

Could this Saharan wind thing be caused by Global Warming?
If so, does that mean we didn't have Global Warming until this year?
If so, does that mean eight years of misguided economic policies under the Bush administration did it?

Pretty hard to falsify a hy... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

Pretty hard to falsify a hypothesis if its proponents are willing to introduce new variables to account for any failed predictions.

Santeria practitioners have higher scientific standards.

What happens when the Sahar... (Below threshold)
Jay Guevara:

What happens when the Saharan Air Layer hits the Kenyan Air Layer midway up the Atlantic Coast?

You forgot the newest kid o... (Below threshold)
mitchel44:

You forgot the newest kid on the hurricane forecasting block, Dr. James Hansimian.

http://www.nationalcenter.org/HurricaneForecast.html

My money is on the chimp, lol.

Dr. Hansimian does, so far,... (Below threshold)
Arizona CJ:

Dr. Hansimian does, so far, seem to have the most accurate forecast. I also trust this chimpanzee's "model" more than that of the glabal warmists.

As I recall, one of the "arguments" proposed by a staff member of NOAA, when asked about the simian forecast, was to dismiss it because it was based on rolling dice. The argument was that "Of course rolling dice will give you a forecast with a better chance of accuracy."

Hrmm, might I then suggest replacing NOAA with a chimpanzee and a set of dice?

The history of hurricane se... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

The history of hurricane season projection is not good. Gray has the reputation because he was one of the first to issue annual forecasts, but people forget most of his earlier forecasts were heavily hedged, and no one seemed to bother to check his actual accuracy.

Heck, they can't even accurately forecast the track of some of these storms within hours of landfall (several of the biggest made last-minute changes of direction). Why would anyone think they could predict whole seasons? It's the Jeanne Dixon effect - one or two accurate predictions seem to cancel out dozens of way-off guesses.

As my late father observed, "They say they can predict the temperature and sea level 50 years from now. I just want to know if it is going to rain tomorrow!"

No apology since the outcom... (Below threshold)
Bob:

No apology since the outcome was precisely as predicted, huh? Figures.

Next time keep your ignorant trap shut when you haven't the faintest clue of what you speak.




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