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Latest Gallup poll more bad news for Democrats

Over at Hot Air, Ed Morrissey offers some analysis of a recent Gallup poll on party identification at the state level. The poll shows that the trend of fewer people self-identifying with Democratic Party continues. Follow the link for the detailed numbers but the Gallup conclusions are as follows.

Democrats' advantage in party identification continues to dwindle this year. Fewer Americans identify as Democrats, and more say they don't identify with or lean toward either party. On a state-by-state level, this means more states are now classified as competitive or leaning/solidly Republican than has been the case over the past two years, and fewer as leaning/solidly Democratic.

Some shift toward independent party identification is to be expected in the years between presidential elections; in presidential election years, party allegiance tends to be at its height. The key finding at this juncture is that Democrats, not Republicans, have been the net losers as Americans shift away from the major parties.

I'm a little skeptical of the numbers, myself, as they indicate that Texas is a competitive state. Does anyone really think Texas isn't at least "leans Republican"?

Morrissey's comments focus on the sampling choices Gallup used for this particular poll.

The sample is the key. Gallup did not ask for registered or likely voters, but instead opted for the wider but less accurate sampling technique. We have a basis of comparison as well, the 2008 election. Gallup showed Democrats with a 12-point advantage in the general population, but Obama only won the popular vote by seven points -- and that was with the help of Republican crossovers. The general-population sample overstates Democratic support in actual elections, even the one with massive turnout that propelled Obama into the White House.

The four-point advantage today, therefore, looks pretty thin. Among registered voters, it's probably dead even or perhaps a negative number.

This poll is just one more brush stroke in the painting of a strong midterm election for the Republican Party. But as Glenn Reynolds reminds us, don't get cocky. While current indications are indeed positive don't forget about Angle/Reid situations that muddy the waters.


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Comments (10)

Personally, I hope the Dems... (Below threshold)
P. Bunyan:

Personally, I hope the Dems maintain control of both houses this November.

My reasoning is that at this point there's nothing the Repubs can do to stop Obama. Yeah, I've heard people say they can refuse to fund Obama's Maxist takeover, but we all know that's not gonna happen (can you say unemployment entensions?). Obama now has the power to nationalize pretty much every business in the country for any reason or no reason at all, which he will start doing soon. If the Repubs take congress we'll hear nothing for the next two years except how things would be so much better if only the Repubs would support Obama's agenda and how Obama didn't want to take over the ________* industry but those horrible Repubs in congress "made him do it". All the while things will get worse and worse; Obama will continue to nationalize more and more of the private sector as it fails under the pressure of the massive regulations already passed with more to come; and the administraton/press/educators/entertainers will continue to blame the Republicans.

After two years of this the un-informed voters (i.e., most voters) will be so sick of the Repubs that they'll not only re-elect Obama, they'll give the congress back to the Dems.

And if you don't think the majority of voters are that stupid, you need only look at 2008 to prove to yourself that they are.

No, the best think that could happen this fall is for the Dems to hold both houses and be forced to take ownership for thier own actions and policies. If there's any sort of republic left in 2012 the Repubs can retake control at that time.

I'd rather there be a slight chance then no hope at all.

*Fill in the blank with any industry as he'll go after all them soon enough.

This is before the effect o... (Below threshold)
Don L:

This is before the effect of their "October"(or August and September too) surprise.

Watch this Afghanistan Wikeleeks drop by the NYT - I suspect that Obama will blame Bush and announce that our allies are helping the Taliban -"I will not lose one more American Life for such evil and I'm announcing that I'm bringing the troops home (where they're needed as my civilian army?)

I agree with the October su... (Below threshold)
Mark W:

I agree with the October surprise warning. The democrats have a decided advantage in both the House and Senate. They will not give that up without a fight. We also have one of the most childish Presidents in our history. I can't see this man allowing the republicans to take both houses of congress without some kind of tantrum. Finally, we have our politicized media acting as a Praetorian Guard for the democrats. Does any of us believe that they will allow the republicans to win both houses without launching a massive preemptive attack to forestall such a horrendous possibility?

The best thing we can do is to begin a massive campaign to warn the American people of the impending assault on our sensibilities that will be forthcoming from the democrats and their minions. The more we talk about this inevitability now, the less impact any such efforts will have on the American public because it will have been expected. The general expectation of its occurrence will not only blunt its effectiveness, but will actually move us much further along in the exposure of the media in their roles as democrat political operatives.

Texas does more then "lean"... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

Texas does more then "lean" right, it is right. ww

Yawn...this obsession with ... (Below threshold)
Michael:

Yawn...this obsession with "October Surprises" is paranoia cubed. They rarely happen and they if they do...they rarely work.

Most of the gullible people... (Below threshold)
Roy:

Most of the gullible people (young, progressive) are staying home for this election - since there's no sizzle anymore. It'll be dominated by older and ticked-off voters who have a reason to come out. A massive warning isn't needed, since this group was fooled once. And what was it Daltrey sang about?

Ok, just for giggles...... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

Ok, just for giggles...

Remember all those Republican conservative voters that said to hell with McCain and sat at home?

How about ALL the conservatives that are now so damn mad at the BS this Democrat regime has jammed up their collective asses against their expressed dissatisfaction?

Do any of you have even the slightest inkling about the historical election that is going to take place this November?

Even a damn glimmer?

Money can't buy you love, it also can't quench the anger of an electorate ignored.

I can safely predict there will be no 'conservative' Democrats remaining in the House after next January and the Senate is going to be controlled by Republicans.

They may not have the super majorities enjoyed by the Democrats now but give it one or two more election cycles.

The best outcome is also th... (Below threshold)
John S:

The best outcome is also the most likely outcome. Republicans narrowly take over the House to Pelosi's humiliation. Republicans gain enough seats in the Senate to make it thoroughly ungovernable. Obama's agenda gets gummed up, but Democrats retain most of the government and most of the blame for the coming double-dip depression. And I believe House Republicans can immediately start on the 2011 budget and the 2012 budget.

P.B.They already bla... (Below threshold)
Wayne:

P.B.
They already blame Republicans for blocking their efforts even when they have had super majority. The MSM\Dems\entertainers will always blame the Republicans.

Do you think allowing the Dems to maintain power will do anything but increase the rate of decline of this country?

Barry has already tried to ... (Below threshold)
914:

Barry has already tried to label the Tea Party as 'racist'.

Having failed at the race card about the only thing to give the dums a chance would be job creation on the order of 10,000,000 in 2 month's, tax cut's for the rich in Congress/Senate and a cease to all hostility toward's business at home and abroad..


Weve all witnessed Barry's pathetic first 2 years and know his march toward a totalitarian government will not stop until he is in a stockade or shipped back to Indonesia and stamped ' do not return'.

Remember November.




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