When President Obama was elected he achieved a significant margin of victory in electoral votes (365 to 173). Some pundits are now wondering why Obama seems to have lost this mandate but their arguments are questionable. Over at the HorseRaceBlog at RealClearPolitics, Jay Cost delves into some of these arguments with his usual statistical approach. Read the whole thing but what was struck by was the following graphic. It shows the historical party breakdown for past presidential elections on a county by county basis. Unlike the red-blue charts you are use to this one uses blue for Republican and yellow/brown for Democrat.
![Presidential%20Maps%201932-2008[1].jpg](http://wizbangblog.com/images/2010/08/Presidential%2520Maps%25201932-2008%5B1%5D.jpg)
As should be clear, Obama's victory was geographically narrower than Reagan's, LBJ's, Ike's or FDR's. Substantially so. Obama did much more poorly in rural and small town locales. They have a history of progressive/liberal support, but Obama was unable to place himself in the rural progressive tradition of William Jennings Bryan. This makes his coalition the most one-sided of any on the above maps. Most of his political support comes from the big cities and the inner suburbs. The exurbs, small towns, and rural areas generally voted Republican (with notable exceptions in the Upper Midwest).With such a divided picture of the electorate, the group that will break the tie, in many cases, are independents. Every indication is that Obama is losing the support of independent votes in droves. If that trend continues for the next three months then the impact on the November midterms will be staggering.In fact, if you look at presidential elections going back 100 years, Obama's is the most geographically narrow of any victors except Carter, Kennedy, and Truman - none of whom had transformative presidencies. Even Bill Clinton in 1996, whose share of the two-party vote was comparable to Obama's, still had a geographically broader voting coalition. Ditto George H.W. Bush in 1988.
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Comments (14)
Barry and the rest of the D... (Below threshold)1. Posted by GarandFan | August 4, 2010 1:43 PM | Score: 8 (10 votes cast)
Barry and the rest of the Dims have only one way to go on their numbers. DOWN.
1. Posted by GarandFan | August 4, 2010 1:43 PM |
Score: 8 (10 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 13:43
2. Posted by Hank | August 4, 2010 1:49 PM | Score: 10 (10 votes cast)
The 2008 map is a good argument to keep the electoral college.
As for: "but Obama was unable to place himself in the rural progressive tradition of William Jennings Bryan."
Not surprising. He was busy insulting them.
2. Posted by Hank | August 4, 2010 1:49 PM |
Score: 10 (10 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 13:49
3. Posted by retired military | August 4, 2010 2:09 PM | Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Lets hope we take the House by a large margin to try to put a stop to the madness.
Even if we take the Senate by 2 or so we still have Stupid Snowe, and Clueless Collins to deal with.
3. Posted by retired military | August 4, 2010 2:09 PM |
Score: 6 (6 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 14:09
4. Posted by _Mike_ | August 4, 2010 2:22 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
@Hank
Note the number of state legislatures (I believe MA was the most recent) that are passing laws to circumvent the Electoral College. It's a huge mistake IMO.
4. Posted by _Mike_ | August 4, 2010 2:22 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 14:22
5. Posted by Gmac | August 4, 2010 2:47 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
"the impact on the November midterms will be staggering."
I believe "staggering" is going to be an understatement.
5. Posted by Gmac | August 4, 2010 2:47 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 14:47
6. Posted by 914 | August 4, 2010 2:51 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
In 2012 if the dums have their way we can add some red along the border States and in 'sanctuary citie's' for illegals and dead voter's.
That is the idea behind circumventing the electoral college. They are of course assuming somehow they will get more votes from somewhere's? Sure isn't going to be for job performance so it must come from a concocted source.
6. Posted by 914 | August 4, 2010 2:51 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 14:51
7. Posted by Doug Mataconis | August 4, 2010 3:03 PM | Score: -8 (12 votes cast)
I'm not quite sure I understand the relevance of the fact that McCain won a lot of states with large land areas and small populations whereas Obama won, well, where a lot of people actually exist.
7. Posted by Doug Mataconis | August 4, 2010 3:03 PM |
Score: -8 (12 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 15:03
8. Posted by ak4mc | August 4, 2010 4:18 PM | Score: 5 (9 votes cast)
I'm quite sure I do understand why Mr. Mataconis doesn't understand.
8. Posted by ak4mc | August 4, 2010 4:18 PM |
Score: 5 (9 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 16:18
9. Posted by Grace | August 4, 2010 6:04 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Gmac #5
I'm sure we'll hear from them that it was "unexpected", though.
9. Posted by Grace | August 4, 2010 6:04 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 18:04
10. Posted by 914 | August 4, 2010 6:05 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
#7
Simple Mitacondis
Hussein stood tall in the land of the liberals. But in flyover country he got his cojone's kicked.
The relevance will be even more apparent come November.
10. Posted by 914 | August 4, 2010 6:05 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 18:05
11. Posted by GarandFan | August 4, 2010 8:50 PM | Score: 2 (4 votes cast)
"...whereas Obama won, well, where a lot of people actually exist."
Yeah, where the dead vote, and vote often. We call it 'ACORN Country'.
11. Posted by GarandFan | August 4, 2010 8:50 PM |
Score: 2 (4 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 20:50
12. Posted by Ken D. | August 4, 2010 10:22 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
I agree that independents will decide the election in November. Many of us are fed up with professional politicians. Let's send some pink slips.
12. Posted by Ken D. | August 4, 2010 10:22 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 22:22
13. Posted by dunce | August 4, 2010 11:53 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
The 2008 map may also be the pattern of voter fraud and acorn activity.Shutting down vote fraud and "caging" and thugs with clubs may do as much as anything else to swing the next election.
13. Posted by dunce | August 4, 2010 11:53 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on August 4, 2010 23:53
14. Posted by serfer62 | August 5, 2010 2:51 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
As much as I fear voter fraud I think that it will not help the Kommiecrats. To succeed the elction has to be marginal and that won't be the case this November.
GO America...
14. Posted by serfer62 | August 5, 2010 2:51 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on August 5, 2010 14:51