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Recovery Summer!

Woohoo! The headlines say it all ...

Gallup: Spending Slumps Even With Back-To-School Underway

Yahoo!/AP: Jobs Picture Dims As Unemployment Claims Rise To 484K, highest level since February

CNBC: Youth Unemployment Hits Record High

CNBC: Foreclosure Math: Shadow Inventory Adds Up

The Gallup survey listed above measures spending as reported by consumers. The overall trend for 2010 shows no real increase over 2009 and, as Ed Morrisey notes, may lead retailers to consider shedding jobs this fall. Right now there is certainly no incentive to hire additional workers.

Poor retail sales are probably a major contributing factor to record high youth unemployment, because retail sales associates are traditionally a very large portion of entry-level jobs. Actually high youth unemployment is a worldwide problem. Right now, worldwide unemployment for youth (presumably in developed nations) stands at around 12.9%.

We are also potentially looking at another slump in home values, as unemployment benefits, mortgage modification programs, and other life support for homeowners who can no longer afford their mortgage payments begins to run out, and more homes enter the foreclosure process. The Federal Government's "Home Affordable Modification Program" has fizzled due to persistently high unemployment/lack of income, and the number of homes with mortgages that are now under water. Investment blogger Mike Shedlock recently noted:

Only 30% of the 5.7 million borrowers who are 60 days delinquent are eligible for the program. 4 million delinquent borrowers are stuck. Of those eligible for the program, only 346,000 have completed the trial and received a permanent modification.

Many of those receiving a permanent modification will slip back into default and head for foreclosure. Many of those who successfully keep their house would be better off if they lost it.

Looking at HAMP from every angle, it's safe to say the program was a failure and another huge wave of foreclosures is coming down the road.

There are already an estimated 600,000 foreclosure properties up for sale nationwide, compared to the 564,000 total homes that were sold in June 2010, which was a record low for monthly home sales. The national average for foreclosure property sales is around 150,000 units per month. Experts also estimate that around 6 million mortgage holders are currently delinquent. The math doesn't look good at all.

So much for President Obama's "Recovery Summer."

Today Rush Limbaugh asked, "What comes next? The Fall of America?"


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Comments (10)

Aw, c'mon. Give your anti-O... (Below threshold)
Sir Toby Belch:

Aw, c'mon. Give your anti-Obama vitriol a rest.
Let the "magic" couple enjoy a week+ cuddling
in Martha's Vineyard (after a token 2-3 days
in the best of the toxic panhandle beaches).
He's been focussing "like a laser" on so many
problems that he deserves it. And Michelle
needs some time to recoup from her Spain
odyssey. Word has it the Rangels will join
them for an enjoyable tete-a-tete. Fun will
be had by all....mainly the adoring press.

What's coming next?A... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

What's coming next?
A double dip slide is coming.
Thank you Democrats. As Barry likes to remind us, "you have the car keys".
And the "It's all Bush's fault" is bullshit and won't fly.

"What comes next? The Fall ... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

"What comes next? The Fall of America?"

It's not out of the realm of possibilities.

But as goes America so goes the world.
Who could have imagined 2 years ago it would be this bad? Clearly, the 'Won' has succeeded beyond his handlers wildest dreams in paying off his political cronies while decimating the US economy.

"Today Rush Limbaugh ask... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

"Today Rush Limbaugh asked, "What comes next? The Fall of America?""

More likely the withdrawal of the consent of the governed to BE governed.

The tax code is way overdue for simplification - it should have been a screaming orange clue when their own 'help line' couldn't provide answers they'd guarantee were accurate. When businesses can't forecast year to year what they're going to be charged - why should they take on employees only to fire them later when they become unaffordable?

Congress is badly overdue for a shakeup. We see them waste money like kids in a candy store - and we have no way to stop them quickly. At the very least it takes two years.

And then WE are blamed because we don't want to fund their ever-increasing spending! How DARE we object to Obama adding trillions to the deficit, when we didn't bitch about Bush adding billions? (Could it have been something about the perceived value of a free and independent Iraq, versus paying off political cronies? Hmmm?)

We're already seeing some businesses pulling back instead of expanding. Pretty much every day you hear of businesses that'd like to expand - but worry about the tax ramifications. Hell, if I were making good money, but told that when I make a certain level I'd be taxed more, then I'd probably pull back too. The trick is - the 'rich' don't HAVE to be 'rich'. They want to be comfortable - though their standard of 'comfort' is pretty high and expensive.

The upcoming elections will be very interesting - and vital to our survival.

The left seems to want a permanent underclass, with them as the upper class aristocracy guiding the economy and basking in the praises of the peasants. But those idiots can't even run a rebate program without spending five times the rebate amount in bureaucratic charges - why would you hope that they could run universal medical care in anything resembling a financially coherent manner?

Bank regulation's got things so messed up that it's safer for banks to NOT lend, than to take the chance of lending and finding themselves in violation of some paragraph in a bill nobody bothered to read.

Given the choice between them being in charge of the country, or supposedly the 'evil corporations' (IE Republicans) I'll take the corporations. THEY would rather see everyone middle-class or better, so they can sell the goods they produce. Poor people don't buy luxuries.

The 'progressives' seem to think a small apartment (so you an't own a lot of stuff) in a massive block with access to eco-correct transportation (so you won't need a eco-incorrect SUV monster) is all anyone should desire to aspire to.

Back to the sheep analogy - the progressives dislike sheep intensely, even though they need the wool to prosper.

The independents don't care much about sheep one way or the other - but they prefer high-quality wool.

Conservatives know that the sheep make wool - and that wool is the source of their prosperity. Without the sheep, they've got nothing.

The progressives hate sheep so much, they'll cut and slice the sheep when shearing just for the fun of it. That this causes problems down the line doesn't count - it's fun for them to see the sheep sick and hurting.

The independents don't care much - they'll just take what wool is available - but don't much like seeing sick sheep because the wool is usually stained and there's not as much of it.

The conservatives do what they can to keep the sheep healthy. This causes the progressives to hate the conservatives, since the latter just doesn't understand how much sheep should be hated and hurt.

When you're a sheep rancher, it makes no sense to hate sheep. When you're an aristocrat - or even a prole with pretensions of grandeur, it makes no sense to hate those who provide the things that make your life vastly more comfortable.

This is a huge and worldwid... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

This is a huge and worldwide problem. There are over a hundred major banks in EU nations who are carrying so-called "PIIGS" (for the worst fiscal basket cases: Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain) paper well in excess of the ability for the EU or IMF to bail them out under current law. China reports a contraction in manufacturing, but the Reds are notorious for inflating their actual economic figures so if they are admitting a contraction at all, it probably means they are on the verge of a major crisis due to low international demand.

Fearful that the inevitable rise in interest rates will stifle any recovery and ruin Democrats' chances at the polls, Bernanke intends to pull the Fed's funds out of the maturing mortgage securities they bought to put a thumb in another dike and starting buying federal debt instruments with it.

Artificially suppressing interest rates is the exact approach Japan took in their banking crisis from the late '80s, and they are recovering now, finally, sort of, but with America and Europe not buying much right now, it may still fizzle.

Obama's anti-business, anti-growth, bigger-government policies have sabotaged the recovery, and his upcoming debt bomb will force interest rates to climb steeply. The world usually depends on American ingenuity and recovering demand to stimulate recovery for everyone else. Folks, it looks like you may be on your own this time.

There are always doomsayers among us, but Business Insider?
http://tinyurl.com/2b3y9hf

And Forbes?
http://tinyurl.com/28momvd

Of course, the doom and gloom crowd offers varying advice as how to deal with the coming apocalypse. Some say "Buy gold!" Others recommend stockpiling canned food and gasoline.

Makes more sense to just stockpile weapons and ammo, though . . . doesn't it?

Dunno about just stockpilin... (Below threshold)
Gmac:

Dunno about just stockpiling weapons and ammo, the people with food, weapons and ammo may not see eye to eye on giving up what they have willingly.

http://www.survivalblog.com/

What - no one from the left... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

What - no one from the left pointing out how wrong or hateful we are? Showing how things are just getting better and better by the day? How pretty soon the economy is going to be zooming higher than the boom times of the '90s and 401ks will be bursting at the seams? How unemployment will real soon now drop under 4% because of the magnificence of Obama's ideas and the manifest success of 'progressive' ideology?

Come on, guys, you're failing your team! That IS, after all, how you're seeing all this, aren't you? A game, your side needing to pull out a 'win' - regardless of ethical costs, real-world consequences or actual reality?

All during the Bush years, you were complaining how horrible the economy was, how terrible the high unemployment rates were, and proclaiming YOU could do better if given the reins of government.

So now you've got ol' eloquent Obama - the reverse Midas... Whatever gold he touches turns to worthless dreck.

And we're supposed to see that as BETTER?

Where the hell are we supposed to be 'progressing' to, guys? Because I'm just not not seeing this 'progress' as being anything we can stand for much longer.

Given that Obama & Co. want... (Below threshold)
Tsar Nicholas II:

Given that Obama & Co. wanted to destroy the economy (except for unionized public sector jobs) the true irony with all this ghastly economic data is that the administration has succeeded in its aims.

Yep, this is recovery Barry... (Below threshold)
914:

Yep, this is recovery Barry style. No substance and a whole lotta blame Bush!!

I was laid off 3 months ago... (Below threshold)
John S:

I was laid off 3 months ago from a white color job, and I've discovered jobs are scarce. But I've got a shot at a position mopping floors 3rd shift. I've talked to two managers, but still need the okay of the general manager. And the criminal background check will take 8 to 10 days. And it may only be 24 hours a week to start. Oh, I'm competing with 25 other candidates. But other than that, this is my best shot at a job so far. Yes, the summer of recovery is bitchin'.




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