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Hillary 2012?

S. E. Cupp makes a convincing case for a Hillary Clinton presidential run in 2012:

Just as I've taken issue with some of the liberal attacks against Sarah Palin, I challenge conservatives to acknowledge that Hillary is exactly the kind of woman - accomplished, intelligent, successful and self-made - that we should encourage our daughters to look up to.

Since becoming secretary of state, she's stayed out of the political weeds, doing serious work with diligence while most other cabinet members - Janet Napolitano, Eric Holder, Timothy Geithner, Kathleen Sebelius - have been tarnished by their involvement in unpopular and controversial political fights over health care and the economic stimulus package.

While many on the right have been successfully using Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Obama for archery practice, Clinton is one of the few big-name Democrats who doesn't have her fingerprints on any of the left's domestic failures.

And more than merely staying out of trouble, she's even had some key victories. She was instrumental in persuading Obama to send more troops into Afghanistan, defeating Vice President Biden in an internal debate on the matter. She convinced 33 other governments to toughen their position on allowing Cuba back into the Organization of American States. She saved the signing of the historic Turkish-Armenian accord.

There's a lot of truth here, particularly the fact that Hillary has said nary a word about President Obama's highly controversial domestic agenda. By refraining from partisan cheerleading, she has managed to keep the stink of most of the Administration's messes out of her hair.

There's no doubt in my mind that this is the result of very careful planning. Hillary is extremely intelligent and shrewd, and she is married to one of the most savvy political operatives in American history. Both Clintons are ambitious, and (as illustrated by Chelsea's diamond-crusted wedding) they still have many extremely rich and influential friends.

I was as surprised as anyone when "Nutroots Fever" swept Barack Obama through the Democratic primaries. Perhaps the party threw its full weight behind Obama because he was the most effective and inspiring salesman for its big government progressive agenda to come along in decades. But now that he has proven himself to be the most out-of-touch and uninspiring (and politically toxic) President since WWII, it's a good bet that many Democratic leaders are already looking for someone else to lead the party.

That won't be an easy job, because the new Democratic leader will first have to salvage what is left of the Congressional Democrats after the beating they will take in November. They will need to be organized, and new leadership installed. Then they will have to concentrate on keeping control of the White House. All of this will require political skill and leadership experience that is far above our current Chief Executive's pay grade -- but not out of reach of the mighty Clinton political machine.

2012 will indeed be an extraordinary year for American politics.


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Comments (22)

Teddy Glenlivet ran against... (Below threshold)
Caesar Augustus:

Teddy Glenlivet ran against Carter in '80 and Gene McCarthy took on LBJ in '68, so there's recent precedent for an incumbent Democrat president being challenged in his own primary.

That said, although it's interesting food for thought, I can't envision Hillary taking the plunge. The same hurdles she couldn't overcome in 2008 will be present in 2012: Blacks will vote at least 90-10 in favor of Obama, the left-wing media will campaign in favor of Obama and against Hillary, and guilty liberal whites in the suburbs will be duped in large numbers into voting for Obama (especially in caucuses).

I suspect Hillary will wait for 2016, on the theory that she'll at that stage be the only Democrat left standing after the inevitable Obama-induced implosion.

I don't see Hillary doing t... (Below threshold)
Sheik Yur Bouty:

I don't see Hillary doing this in 2012. The whole health care debacle will still be too fresh in the minds of many angry voters. With that anger, it will be all too easy to remind everyone of the FIRST attempted government takeover of the health care industry, engineered by none other than HRC.

Anyone who runs against Bar... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Anyone who runs against Barry and wins without somehow gaining the black vote in the primary will certainly not receive that vote in the general election. Hilary challanging Barry in the Primary won't get that vote.

If she loses in the Primaries then she will have alienated the black vote for the future as well. She's in a no win situation. The only chance she has is if he doesn't run or if somehow she is able to get something like a real endorsement from him after beating him in the primary. Since he is the most bitter of partisans the likelihood of him giving a ringing endorsement after losing is absolutely zero.

If the economy fails to turn around (possible, it took a decade of Reagan to get the unemployment rates down after Carter) and health care is still standing and dem candidate will be running into a buzz saw.

If Obama DOESN'T go "You kn... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

If Obama DOESN'T go "You know, I've had about all the fun I can stand..." and decide to be a single-termer, then Hillary doesn't dare try to undercut him. If she does, it'll likely cause a schism in the Democratic Party.

If he pulls back - then she may be able to grab the lead, it depends on who else pops up. Frankly, I think she'd be a lot better as President than Obama, but that's a lot like saying cholera is better than the bubonic plague.

I can't really think who else in the Dems might have a chance. They're all going to be seen as poison after what's happened the last few years, and what will likely happen in the next two.

By the time a dem has a cha... (Below threshold)
914:

By the time a dem has a chance again at the white house, Shillary will be 88 years old.

Not gonna happen.

Is it possible? Yes. Like... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Is it possible? Yes. Likely? Not enough info right now. It will depend on the state of the economy in 2012 and any results the Republicans can obtain between now and then (assuming a LARGE number of Republicans are swept into the House and Senate this fall). There is precedent for a challenge from within the party, especially if the current occupant of the White House is seen as a sure loser. (Kennedy-Carter). If Barry is perceived as a lame-duck obstructionist over the next two years - or attempts to bypass Congressional legislation via "Rule by Regulation", this may push the DNC to give the nod to Hillary! which is why she's keeping her skirts as clean as possible. Hillary! in 2016? I think not. Not unless the DNC wants their old campagin commercials about John McCains age replayed for them and updated with new names. As far as the black vote goes, there's not enough there to secure an advantage to Barry, even if you throw the 'white guilt' vote in with it. The black and guilt vote would probably only amount to around 24% of Democratic votes. And when you get right down to it, a majority of people have a tendency to vote their wallet, not their ideology.

I am personally not a big f... (Below threshold)
DaveD:

I am personally not a big fan, but I think the Clintons are the most talented husband and wife team I have seen in politics in my lifetime and I think politics is all they know. I also believe they will always be a package deal. I don't know how to handicap this. If there is any reasonable chance that Hillary feels she can get the nomination she will go for it. In addition, I think her husband (at least in public) is really, really anxious to be relevant again. I am quite sure Obama's Nobel still pisses him off big time.

But what of the black vote ... (Below threshold)
oldpuppymax:

But what of the black vote in 2012?? Should Hillary muscle her way to the nomination--as unlikely as it may be--what would prevent Hussein and Co. from telling blacks to stay home...in a nice, roundabout way of course. Without the black vote in DROVES, dems have little chance at the White House. As WC Fields once put it, this might well be the "African in the fuel supply."

Obama will not bow out. He ... (Below threshold)
hermie:

Obama will not bow out. He is too egotistical to even consider it. He believes that the party, George Soros and the MSM will back him 200%. They have so far, even through his Porkulous, oil spill and 'Recovery Summer' fiascos have shown him to be a failure. Besides, they already did considerable damage to Hilary's prospects when they did whatever they could to derail her 2008 candidacy. Her running against Obama would be seen as a 'betrayal' by every far-left group and minority.

I have to politely disagree... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

I have to politely disagree with Garandfan's statement "There is precedent for a challenge from within the party...."

The most salient point in this discussion is that there is virtually no precedent for this whatsoever. Namely, a sitting cabinet member, one of the Big Four, no less (State, Defense/War, Treasury, Justice,) challenging their own sitting president in primaries for the nomination.

A previous thread on this very idea had someone detail that the last time it happened was around 1880 or so ( I'm forgetting names), and that the cabinet member who challenged got roundly thumped and then vanished from the political scene forever.

I simply don't see how it is possible for her to "divorce" herself from Barack Obama. When you accept a position on that level, you are all in, the only possible way around that would be for her to resign in the first year, and become a bitter political opponent virtually immediately. It's way too late for that. Now, especially after November, a Hillary resignation would be correctly seen as beyond shameless in it's opportunism. It is a fact that Americans have at least a gut level respect for both unremitting loyalty, even if we disagree, as well as principled opposition to a friend or ally, but to weaselly try to "split the difference", or to wait to mount that oppostion for the very moment that would be most personally advantageous to you, is seen as the most appalling of shamelessness and self-interest. (By a Clinton?? The hell, you say...!)

Folks are correct to note the bloodbath in the party that would result. And then, there is the unequivocable message that would be sent by every Hillary supporter who once supported Obama in 2008 and beyond... namely, "boy howdy, we sure f----- that one up, didn't we? But this time, we got it right, so trust us!" There's a winner.

Then, there is the fact that, interesting though the mention of Afghan, Turkey, and Cuba is, most Americans could not name one real accomplishment of hers at State. More will remember the 'reset button', and that we are utterly appalled by Obama's foreign relations in general, no matter what Hillary's role or non-role is.

She might try to run, but these hurdles are massive ones, and, talented though the Clinton's are, they really are part of a past that is being hugely discredited accross the board. I'm bettin' big against it.

(If Obama opts out, not inconceivable by any means, most of the above is non-operative.)

There is good and bad to be... (Below threshold)
Oyster:

There is good and bad to be said for Hillary. But if any 2012 voters think that a President Hillary Clinton won't take the same tack to the left that Obama has they're crazy. She wants universal healthcare, she'll endorse cap and trade, taxing the "rich", back-door legislation to silence critics, anything that will get the Lefty Seal of Approval.

I hope I'm not supposed to get all mushy just because she's doing her job.

You think things are bad now? We're inundated with screams of racism! as it is. Any opposition to Hillary will yield more screams of Misogynist!

Unless Obama chooses not to... (Below threshold)

Unless Obama chooses not to run in '12, this is not going to happen. If Hillary somehow decided to run, and somehow managed to grab the nomination from Obama (both unlikely), blacks would desert the Democrats in droves, dooming her in the general election.

Hillary will be the dem nom... (Below threshold)
retired military:

Hillary will be the dem nominee in 2012. She will get beat in the general election due to lack of minority votes.

How it is going to happen I dont know. I just feel that it will. HIllary doesnt want to wait until 2016 and by then Healthcare will have kicked in and fully ruined whatever chance she would have had to when then even if she feels she live that long and then serve for 8 years (nothing less will enter her mind).

She wants it badly. THe dem party after the 2010 shellacking will be looking for their Moses to lead them out of the wilderness. Obama has enough bodies buried somewhere that he will bow out or be forced out either through back room deals (Supreme court justice perhaps) or open scandal.

Obama will tell his supporters to vote for Hillary and some will but not enough to matter since the dems will have done a fine job of finishing the shellacking they have put on the economy to date.

"The most salient point in ... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"The most salient point in this discussion is that there is virtually no precedent for this whatsoever. Namely, a sitting cabinet member, one of the Big Four, no less (State, Defense/War, Treasury, Justice,) challenging their own sitting president in primaries for the nomination."

I suppose we could pick nits Andrew - try Splash Kennedy (D - US Senator) vs Jimmy Carter (D - US President). Yeah, Kennedy wasn't in the cabinet, but he did challenge the sitting president of his own party. And he did it with the blessing of the DNC honchos who (correctly) had Carter marked as a loser.

As for Hillary! being "all in". You sure? You see her out of on the campaign stump? You see Billy Bob out there? If the economy is still stuck in neutral come 2012, and Barry's numbers are in the low 'teens, you can bet those honchos will be looking around for someone else to carry their banner.

Forgot to add; we'll know f... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

Forgot to add; we'll know for sure come next March. If Hillary! resigns, it won't be "to spend more time with my family".

By then she'll have gotten the nod from the DNC honchos, playing it as a 'duty to be done'. She'll trumpet how she 'sacrificed everything' for the 'good of the party' in 2008. How she 'supported the president' at every turn. BUT now the party is 'suffering' and something needs to be done in order to 'regain control'.

Speaking of old bags, anybo... (Below threshold)
914:

Speaking of old bags, anybody catch CNN's clip on slickster's part time wife bitchin' about a small church burning Korans? Where was her outrage when her hubby's administration burned living beings alive in Waco?


how about the 'mysterious'... (Below threshold)
MF:

how about the 'mysterious' deaths surrounding those around the Clinton's when Bill was office

I have not forgotten.

GF - Not to belabor the po... (Below threshold)
Andrew X:

GF - Not to belabor the point, but the entire point I made is that, for a Senator or whatever to challenge a sitting President is, if not common, at least not by any means unheard of or unprecedented.

But for a cabinet member to do so is a whole other order of business, and presents a whole bunch of issues not faced by, say, Ted Kennedy. Of course Kennedy et al could distance himself from Carter, he was in an entirely different branch. Fellow party legislators differing with their President are a dime a dozen.

But a cabinet member?? And not 'Agriculture', I might add? Hey, maybe she'll do it and pull it off, but it would be undeniably precedent setting if so, and thus no easy task by a long shot.

I just think the GOP would have a ferocious weapon in poointing out its shameless disloyalty on her part, and that is exactly what it would be. "Hey Hillary, once you lost the nomination, YOU and all your supporters GAVE us this guy. YOU, that's right YOU. YOU signed up with him, YOU sold us his policies, YOU told us to go with him...YOU... and now you come along and say, oops, he's the wrong guy, but now YOU are the one for us to follow?? And we're supposed to fall in line with that??"

It'll be an interesting pitch, I'll give it that.

She just today said that th... (Below threshold)
Hawk777:

She just today said that the UN is the most important institution in the world. The same UN that wants to redistribute US wealth, wants to try our soldiers, would like to bring Bush up on war crimes, and would like to outlaw lightbulbs. The same UN that would call Az racist yet tolerate muslim aggression worldwide. Not gonna happen...

.... By refraining from par... (Below threshold)

.... By refraining from partisan cheer-leading, Missus Cli'ton has managed to keep the stink of most of the 0zero "administration's" messes out of her hair ....

Sure.

But there was another "administration.

But is there a Year Zero in there somewhere, that We, The People, have somehow missed?

Are We, The People, to do a Loony Leftist and to begin this recidivist, treasonous, lying, looting, thieving, mass-murdering, unindicted co-conspiratorial, FBI-File wielding, co-serial rapist gangsters' moll's resume from 2008?

Get real.

It seems like there is a br... (Below threshold)
John Harnes:

It seems like there is a break happening right in the Middle of the Democratic Party. Not since the height of the Vietnam War has a sitting Democratic President and leaders in the House and Senate have come under so much fire from within their own party. It seems some Congressfolks and Senators feel the party leadership has thrown them under the bus in the November elections and they are fighting to separate themselves from that leadership.

The Middle Class knows their pay is stagnate, their very jobs in danger and investments disappearing. The Democratic leadership offers more national debt, costlier healthcare, a Cap & Trade program that makes a few very rich folks richer and steals money right out of the pockets of the Middle Class. You lose the Middle Class in the USA - you can't get elected!

I think a key person to watch is James Carville, an American political consultant, commentator, educator, actor, attorney, media personality, prominent liberal pundit and Clinton insider. If Hillary decides to go for President in 2012 you can bet Carville will be out in front of the pack supporting her!

I wonder if Hillary2012 or ... (Below threshold)

I wonder if Hillary2012 or Hillary2016




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