With the midterm elections less than a week away, many polling agencies and pundits are offering up their final predictions on the overall outcome of the elections. Larry Sabato over at the Center for Politics has offered up his thoughts. His final predictions? The Republicans gain 55 seats in the House, 8 in the Senate, and 8-9 Governorships. His Senate analysis is perhaps most interesting:
We believe the GOP will hold all its open seats (FL, KY, MO, NH, OH). This is quite an accomplishment in itself, since the early assumption was that at least a couple would switch sides. In addition, Republicans will probably pick up most of the following: AR, CO, IL, IN, NV, ND, PA, and WI. The closest appear to be CO, IL, NV, and PA. These races, especially the first three, are so tight that a strong breeze could change the result, so the GOP may well come up one or two short in this category. By the way, if Republicans do win the +8 we have projected, then they only have to unexpectedly pick off two of the following states to take control: CA, CT, WA, or WV. CT seems least likely, WA most likely-but any of the foursome would be an upset.Follow the link, above, to see a state-by-state breakdown.In our pre-Labor Day analysis, however, we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II, the House has changed parties six times, and in every case, the Senate switched, too. In five of the six cases, most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly, including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night, this could be it, despite the pre-election odds against it.
It is perhaps more interesting that these final predictions seem to be converging. Jay Cost, now writing for the Weekly Standard, has also published his election predictions. The numbers are almost identical. Cost projects gains by Republicans of 57 in the House, 8 in the Senate, and 8-9 Governorships. He does not provide a state-by-state breakdown but one can assume that his polling analysis gave similar results.
So what say you? Is 55 in the House too high or too low? Is 8 in the Senate being conservative or is control of the Senate out of reach? Feel free to make your predictions below and in any event we'll know in less than a week.
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Comments (25)
I'm going to be aggressive ... (Below threshold)1. Posted by yetanotherjohn | October 28, 2010 12:58 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
I'm going to be aggressive with R+72 in house, R+10 in senate and R+8 in Governor races.
I base the house R+72 on the Gallup generic ballot
I base the senate R+10 on holding all the R seats and gaining ND, IN, AR, WI, PA, NV, IL, CO and upset wins in two of the three WA, WV and CA. This is easily the most ambitious claim, but it is pretty rare to see the house flip and not the senate.
I base the Gov. R+8 on holding all current GOP seats except RI (which goes indie), CA, HI, CT and MN. GOP pick up KS, OK, TN, WY, MI, IA, PA, NM, WI, OH, IL, ME, OR.
Kowabunga dude, ride the wave.
1. Posted by yetanotherjohn | October 28, 2010 12:58 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 12:58
2. Posted by 914 | October 28, 2010 12:59 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
55-57-60?
Just so Barrys agenda gets halted who cares. He can spend the remaining shame duck session playing golf and faking smiles with Stewart and the boar hogs on the view for all I care.
2. Posted by 914 | October 28, 2010 12:59 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 12:59
3. Posted by Hank | October 28, 2010 1:02 PM | Score: 6 (8 votes cast)
The results would be higher for the repubs but it appears Sabato factored in democrat voter fraud.
3. Posted by Hank | October 28, 2010 1:02 PM |
Score: 6 (8 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 13:02
4. Posted by Myroft | October 28, 2010 1:02 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
The House R+67
Senate - R+9-10
Gov - R+9
After the debate here in FL, the GOv and the Senate Seats are botha going to go fully R And I think 1 house seat is moving to the R column as well. We might hav epicked up more house seats here, except that they were mostly R to start with, so just retaining them is a good thing.
Other prediction? NV Senate seat wil end up in court before it is thru.
4. Posted by Myroft | October 28, 2010 1:02 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 13:02
5. Posted by GarandFan | October 28, 2010 1:12 PM | Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Don't care about the numbers game at this point. Just so that Democrats do not have a majority in either house on Nov 3rd.
Two I would definitely like to see thrown out:
Nancy and Harry. With Barry to follow in 2012.
5. Posted by GarandFan | October 28, 2010 1:12 PM |
Score: 5 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 13:12
6. Posted by Gmac | October 28, 2010 1:58 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Is 55 in the House too high or too low?
To low. Try a minimum of 76 to a high of 94 with the high estimate being optimistic but NOT out of the realm of possibility.
Is 8 in the Senate being conservative or is control of the Senate out of reach?
9 in the Senate easily and possibly 11 if it goes well in WA, CA and WV.
It is not a good year to be a Democrat or a RINO.
6. Posted by Gmac | October 28, 2010 1:58 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 13:58
7. Posted by Upset Old Guy | October 28, 2010 2:16 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
It pains me to say it, I believe CT is about to replace MA as the bluest of the blue states.
7. Posted by Upset Old Guy | October 28, 2010 2:16 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 14:16
8. Posted by DaveK | October 28, 2010 2:24 PM | Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Funny that Sabato did not mention anything about the open senate race in North Carolina, with Richard Burr facing democrat challenger Elaine Marshall. Could that be another open senate seat the Republicans hold onto?
8. Posted by DaveK | October 28, 2010 2:24 PM |
Score: 0 (0 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 14:24
9. Posted by alanstorm | October 28, 2010 2:59 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Don't take these things for granted out there - don't get so caught up in the predictions that you forget to actually VOTE!
9. Posted by alanstorm | October 28, 2010 2:59 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 14:59
10. Posted by David Spence | October 28, 2010 3:01 PM | Score: 2 (4 votes cast)
House-+75
Senate-+10
Monday everything will break to GOP. Even moderate Democrats will come to their senses and the dominoes will tumble against B. Hussein.
10. Posted by David Spence | October 28, 2010 3:01 PM |
Score: 2 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 15:01
11. Posted by SER | October 28, 2010 3:31 PM | Score: 5 (9 votes cast)
I wish I could be as optimistic, but the Democrats commit vote fraud. Whether its in Nevada, Illinois, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania, they do not believe in the same ethical standards that we do. Why else would they deny the vote to our Armed Forces serving overseas:
http://biggovernment.com/capitolconfidential/2010/10/15/exclusive-illinois-elections-officials-caught-lying-about-military-ballots/
11. Posted by SER | October 28, 2010 3:31 PM |
Score: 5 (9 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 15:31
12. Posted by jim m | October 28, 2010 4:33 PM | Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
I'm with SER.
I believe the Dems hold NV, CA, PA, IL, and WV due (in part if not entirely) to their fraud operations.
12. Posted by jim m | October 28, 2010 4:33 PM |
Score: 4 (6 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 16:33
13. Posted by Roy | October 28, 2010 4:40 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
The Democrats have harped on and on for two years about everything they had "inherited". But since they've done nothing-zilch-nada to repeal it, they're going to have a helluva problem paying that political-career-death tax that's coming due next week.
13. Posted by Roy | October 28, 2010 4:40 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 16:40
14. Posted by 914 | October 28, 2010 4:44 PM | Score: 2 (4 votes cast)
There is and has been fraud. However, it is not enough to save dingy dirty Harry. That is why the golfer in cheif flew into town, to help with the fake votes.
It is going to be a pleasure to see Nancy and Barry pissing and bemoaning the loss of power they did not wield responsibly.
Ha hahahahahahaaha
14. Posted by 914 | October 28, 2010 4:44 PM |
Score: 2 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 16:44
15. Posted by retired military | October 28, 2010 4:58 PM | Score: 3 (5 votes cast)
House R+91
Senate R+11
I think that may be optimistic and believe that if the totals are lower then it will be in direct correlation to the fraud that dems will run rampant with.
I also think that Reid will lose despite his son being in charge of the voting machines and SEIU "servicing them"
15. Posted by retired military | October 28, 2010 4:58 PM |
Score: 3 (5 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 16:58
16. Posted by retired military | October 28, 2010 4:59 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
BTW as a side note
Pelosi "what do you mean I cant fly myself, my friends and family free anymore? Do you know who I am ?"
Air Force "Yes, no longer speaker"
16. Posted by retired military | October 28, 2010 4:59 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 16:59
17. Posted by Baggi | October 28, 2010 5:31 PM | Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Am I missing something? I don't see Alaska in his calculations.
And recent polling has Murkowski in the lead, with the Democrat ahead of Miller.
I would hate to see Miller lose this race. I hope Palin helps him out and uses some of her GOTV effort to get him elected.
17. Posted by Baggi | October 28, 2010 5:31 PM |
Score: 4 (4 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 17:31
18. Posted by Dan Karipides | October 28, 2010 5:41 PM | Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
> And recent polling has Murkowski in th
> lead, with the Democrat ahead of Miller.
Hmmm, I think whatever poll you were looking at is suspect. The race is between Murkowski as a write-in candidate and Miller. McAdams (D) doesn't have a chance I don't think.
RCP averages
The real question is whether a write-in candidate polls differently than actual voting. How is the poll question worded? The ballot will show Miller vs McAdams and then a list of write-in candidates. That's a lot different than someone on the phone saying "Do you support Miller, Murkowski, or McAdams for Senate in Alaksa?"
18. Posted by Dan Karipides | October 28, 2010 5:41 PM |
Score: 2 (2 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 17:41
19. Posted by Pretzel Logic | October 28, 2010 7:25 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
There's a battle outside
And it is ragin'.
It'll soon shake your windows
And rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin'.
19. Posted by Pretzel Logic | October 28, 2010 7:25 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 19:25
20. Posted by BigD | October 28, 2010 8:49 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
I think 80 house and 11-12 in the senate. I think everyone is underestimating or not seeing the level of anger.
20. Posted by BigD | October 28, 2010 8:49 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 20:49
21. Posted by JLawson | October 28, 2010 8:53 PM | Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
I'll settle for a simple majority in both. With a big billboard put up, visible from the House and Senate - "YOU serve US. REMEMBER THAT!"
21. Posted by JLawson | October 28, 2010 8:53 PM |
Score: 3 (3 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 20:53
22. Posted by 914 | October 28, 2010 9:20 PM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
A humbled Barry? Is it possible?
22. Posted by 914 | October 28, 2010 9:20 PM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 28, 2010 21:20
23. Posted by Mark L | October 29, 2010 8:45 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
House: R +70
Senate: R +10
Why? The polls are using a turnout model based on 2010 party ratios. That overstates D strength. Give the Republicans an extra 1 to 3 percent of the vote in each race and my prediction looks conservative.
23. Posted by Mark L | October 29, 2010 8:45 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 29, 2010 08:45
24. Posted by engineer | October 29, 2010 9:55 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
House +74
Senate +9
Governors +7
Senate - ND, AR, IN, PA, WI, CO, IL, WV & NV in that order of spread. WA will initially go to Rossi who will 'lose' it in the recount(s) or in continually additional findings after 'all the vote is counted'. CA could go Republican if the East Coast starts to go overwhelming red. I also predict that the even through NV will go to Angle, there will be numerous challanges that will keep the final results up in the air for weeks or even months, with a strong possiblity of Reid being 'reappointed'.
Also Chris Matthews will break down and cry on the air.
24. Posted by engineer | October 29, 2010 9:55 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 29, 2010 09:55
25. Posted by oldpuppymax | October 29, 2010 10:21 AM | Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
All depends upon the success of the lefts fraud!
25. Posted by oldpuppymax | October 29, 2010 10:21 AM |
Score: 1 (1 votes cast)
Posted on October 29, 2010 10:21