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Election Day Predictions

I've been a little lax here the past few days, and I apologize. Things have gotten seriously hectic at The Day Job and slightly hectic in my personal life, and since this part of my alleged "life" don't pay the bills, it's taken it in the shorts. Sorry, folks.

And I gotta get to said Day Job shortly, so this is gonna be a quick one. Well, quick for me, which means less than a thousand words. I think.

Anyway, it's election day. Seemed like it would never get here, and I can't believe it's all over tomorrow. So, let's toss out some predictions so we can all point and laugh at each other tomorrow.

I've conducted extensive research, studied all the polls, and run it through several spreadsheets, and have come up with my predictions on how Congress will stand tomorrow.

OK, as anyone who knows anything at all about me knows already, that's pure BS. instead, I employed my usual prognosticative methodology: I kept saying numbers in the shower until I decided two "felt" right. And Jay Tea's Ablutional Analysis says: Senate 50-50, House 250-185.

What makes me pick those numbers? Well, they're both nice, round numbers, and that's always appealing. And a split in the Senate will be exceptionally fun for us political junkies, especially since it means that it will keep Joe Biden locked down to being near the Senate for any key issues and in the public eye -- and Joe can always be counted on to open his mouth and say something incredibly entertaining.

Finally, a GOP gain is pretty much a guarantee. The only question will be how much, and I'm going big in the House and pretty big in the Senate.

On the other hand, I think we will see record levels of shenanigans at the polls and in the counting -- the Democrats have essentially declared war on secure elections, and anyone who think that the Obama/Holder Justice Department will take any kind of action on allegations of voter fraud is seriously delusional. (That could be the topic of another article -- I've bounced ideas off that subject privately with James H., and he's given me a historic reference that I might be able to build the whole piece around.)

Anyway, that's what I'm going on as my prediction for GOP seats after today, with numbers almost entirely pulled out of my butt: 50 Senate, 250 House. What's yours?


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Comments (30)

As the Blogfather says, "If... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

As the Blogfather says, "If it isn't close, they can't cheat."

This is shaping up to one of those. Not that there won't be close races, and if Democrats control the counting, they always seem to win - what a coincidence!

But Biden held an Election Eve GOTV rally in Wilmington yesterday with Coons and Carney (the nominee for the House seat). 200 attended. 200.

Sarah Palin gets that many reporters at her rallies. I'm beginning to believe that even O'Donnell has a chance, fueled by the mounting wave and a potential female backlash against the shameful attack against her last week.

I worry about Obama. He's taking off and has reserved an entire luxury hotel in Mumbai - all 570 rooms, plus the meeting rooms, shops, and restaurants. I am afraid he will be so lonely in that great big place all alone after being repudiated by the American people.

I fear he might hurt himself, or his teleprompter.

I'll repost my presictions ... (Below threshold)
engineer:

I'll repost my presictions from Dan's post on October 28:

House +74
Senate +9
Governors +7

Senate - ND, AR, IN, PA, WI, CO, IL, WV & NV in that order of spread. WA will initially go to Rossi who will 'lose' it in the recount(s) or in continually additional findings after 'all the vote is counted'. CA could go Republican if the East Coast starts to go overwhelming red. I also predict that the even through NV will go to Angle, there will be numerous challanges that will keep the final results up in the air for weeks or even months, with a strong possiblity of Reid being 'reappointed'.

Also Chris Matthews will break down and cry on the air.

I'll also add the following:

As soon as the polls close, all the networks, except Fox, will declare Coons the winner in Delaware. No vote count in, only their exit polls. And with it the obligatory, "It looks like it's going to be a bad night for republicans, especially Tea Partiers. blah, blah, blah...."

With over 80% of the vote counted in Ohio and Portman ahead by 19%, the MSM still won't declare a winner.

Rachel Maddow will have to be bleeped at least once during the evening.

Alan Greyson doesn't give a concession speech but a hate filled tirade.

I'm more conservative in my... (Below threshold)
Walter Cronanty:

I'm more conservative in my predictions:
House + 55
Senate + 8
Governorships + 8
While I like to think "big," Mr. Tea's numbers would require truly historical movement in voters from previous election. I've read some polls which predict such movement, but I've never been a true believer in polls - good at predicting trends, but I'm doubtful as to predicting historic shifts. I'm not from Missouri, but you still have to "show me." Also, I like to manage expectations. I would hate to take more seats in the House than in 1994 and have the headlines read: "Democrats dodge bullet, Obama works last minute magic."

Just returned from voting o... (Below threshold)
CZ:

Just returned from voting out here in Indiana. As usual I was first in line : )

It was a cool, crisp and clear NOvember morning.

I'll go with your guess JT and hope you are correct.

Now comes the hard part. These people better get-r-done. Or else it's back to the future.

I predict two years of inac... (Below threshold)
James H:

I predict two years of inaction and gridlock. Republicans don't want to give President Obama a single inch, and President Obama probably lacks the consensus-building and political miracle-working skills of Bill Clinton.

At times, I wish we had elected Hillary Clinton.

I'm going to give one more ... (Below threshold)

I'm going to give one more prediction: between 2/3 and 3/4 of Tea Party-affiliated candidates (excluding Democratic plants hijacking the Tea Party name) will win.

Corollary: the defeated Tea Party candidates will retroactively be crowned by the lamestream media and the Democratic establishment (but I repeat myself) as the "key" figures and "leaders" and "most prominent and important" members, so therefore their defeat will signify the failure of the movement as a whole -- never mind that (by my prediction) a supermajority will have won.

J.

I predict two years of i... (Below threshold)
Clay:

I predict two years of inaction and gridlock.

I'd be more than happy with that. It sounds much better than what we've had.

Obama's got a major gift. ... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

Obama's got a major gift. He's got the ability to persuade - at least for a while - people to do things that are manifestly NOT in their best interests long-term.

But after a while, the charisma wears off and Obama's got two choices. He can either use his gift to grab a higher position (while it's still working) or... he can fail and go work a different scam elsewhere. (As he did with his 'community organizer' gig, where he bailed because he 'wasn't making a difference'.)

The gift has worn off. A lot of the population is seeing him for what he really is - a two-bit grifter who's good at the con, but has gotten himself in a place where he CAN'T bug out when the marks wise up. He can't just quit, and he can't do what's promised, and there's no higher position he can leap to. He's well and truely stuck.

And a lot of people believed Obama enough to sign onto his efforts wholeheartedly. They're going to get their political throats cut today for that belief, and they're NOT going to be happy. Look for political tell-alls over the next year or so of the "Obama/Dems/Pelosi/Reid threatened X if we didn't vote for Cap&Trade or the Health Care Fiasco."

The average voter - probably wouldn't really care except for that a LOT was promised and hasn't been delivered (or even attempted) - and after all the rhetoric and promises cool down, they can see they were sold a real steaming pile of political guano. They'll be looking for a shovel - and a LARGE plug and a hammer to stop where its spewing.

House? +58
Senate? + 11
Governors +9

You run on hopey-changy stuff, you'd damn well better deliver or the marks will be pissed. And when that happens, be prepared to run.

my prediction?UNLE... (Below threshold)
Justrand:

my prediction?

UNLESS we all work our asses off today to GOTV and to scour the internet and every other news source for TRUTH and use it to tamp down LIES...we'll get our asses HANDED TO US!

Please work...all day...tirelessly! I'm getting ready to start phone-banking, and will do so while blogging the entire day!!

We'll win...but ONLY if we work for it! Please!!

Those are nice round number... (Below threshold)
berlins:

Those are nice round numbers. If the polls are off by under counting Republicans then I can see 51 maybe 52 in the Senate.

Using Jay's Republican seat... (Below threshold)
jim2:

Using Jay's Republican seat count metric:

- 49 Senate (or Repub +8 from the now 41)
- 242 House (or Repub +64 from now 178)

I would note that if the Republican Senate count reaches 49 (or 50), then the two I's would determine which party was in the majority. I can't imagine Lieberman crossing the aisle to caucus with the Republicans, but Sanders has always seemed unpredictable to me. Thus, Sanders would get to decide which party would be in the majority. In that case, I would predict that he stays where he is, and it would only remain to be seen what he would demand in recompense.

I'd love two years of gridl... (Below threshold)
TexBob:

I'd love two years of gridlock, right after they repeal Obamacare.

I wish our congress would only meet for 90 days every two years.

Making laws should not be a full time job and should not come with a pension.

Those who think that Obama ... (Below threshold)
hermie:

Those who think that Obama will now try to 'charm' the GOP have forgotten two little words that he very clearly stated to Republicans at the beginning of his term:

"I WON"

Those two words have been burned into the memories of those Republicans who sought to negotiate in good faith. When people try to evaluate the legacy of the Obama regime it will boil itself down to that.

JamesH: "I predict two year... (Below threshold)
Drago:

JamesH: "I predict two years of inaction and gridlock. Republicans don't want to give President Obama a single inch,...."

Well, isn't control of 2 car companies, effective control over most financial and insurance entities, nationalization of the student loan program, hundreds of billions of dollars rained down upon democrat interest groups, and first major hurdle cleared for the destruction of the private insurance market enough?

Gee, how much more did you want?

Oh, thats right, you wanted the complete takeover of the energy industry and the immediate acceptance of 20million illegal immigrants with the immediate follow-on acceptance of their extended families (at least 20million more).

Well, pardon my resistance to any more of the obambi agenda.


JamesH: "..and President Obama probably lacks the consensus-building and political miracle-working skills of Bill Clinton."

LOL

"political miracle-working skills of Bill Clinton."

Sign the Welfare reform act. Clinton: No
Sign the Welfare reform act. Clinton: No
Sign the Welfare reform act. Clinton: er, No?(Dick Morris: Sign it!) Clinton: OK

Republican congress: you can forget HillaryCare!
Clinton: OK

Clinton, can't we even have gays in the military? Military: Uh, No. Clinton: Ok

Pre-1994: Clinton: "Budget deficits as far as the eye can see"

1994+ Clinton: "The era of big government is dead"

Clinton rides the stock market bubble for 8 years, then leaves office just as it begins to crater.

Yep. Political genius.


I suspect JT gets more done... (Below threshold)
gary gulrud:

I suspect JT gets more done in his sleep than I awake.

77 & 11, stone cold lock-as the football Vegan bettors say.

I'll predict Barney Frank b... (Below threshold)
Hank:

I'll predict Barney Frank breaks down and cries during his concession speech.

How I wish I was in his district so I could vote against him.

The minimal charisma posses... (Below threshold)

The minimal charisma possessed by our Mr. Obama has long since gone the way of the dodo bird. He never persuaded me of anything at all - other than that he was a political, intellectual and moral cipher. A trifling little man and hardly a man at all. More of a propped up human teleprompter being manipulated and driven forth by stronger people working behind the scenes. (Michelle, Soros, et al) The American people can be temporarily blinded by a huckster such as President Obama, but their blinders come off pretty quickly!

Gridlock might be refreshing and the absence of that screeching harridan Pelosi from the forefront of the House of Representatives will be a welcome relief!

I am an optimistHo... (Below threshold)
retired military:

I am an optimist

House +91
Senate +11
Governors +10

I frequent a small board of... (Below threshold)
retired military:

I frequent a small board of friends who have played online games together over the past 12 years.

Out of the 20 or so core members of the board the vast majority of them are liberal. I posted today a reminder to vote. I didnt say for whom just that they should vote.

One of the semiliberal members of the board posted the following in response.

"Also, if you are just heading to your local polling place so you can unvote for Obama, don't bother. It isn't an option."

To me that is very telling.

I'm going out on my modestl... (Below threshold)
Conservachef:

I'm going out on my modestly-informed limb and guessing the following:

Senate- (R) gains 9 for the delightful 50-50 split.

House- (R) gains 60 for 238.

Hopefully I'm guessing low- that way if I'm surprised it should be a pleasant surprise instead of a scary one.

Obama will hold a news conf... (Below threshold)
retired military:

Obama will hold a news conference on Weds Morning.

I wonder if it will be to declare martial law and the elections null and void.

I predict we will see a lot... (Below threshold)
retired military:

I predict we will see a lot more incidents like this today.

Thank heavens for youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPIP-i3sdVk&feature=player_embedded

The new democratic theme so... (Below threshold)
retired military:
Christine O'Donnell will su... (Below threshold)
galoob:

Christine O'Donnell will sue the voters of Delaware for gender discrimination, hop on her broom and fly away.

David Vitter will celebrate his win Charlie Sheen-style, with a couple of hookers.

"I wonder if it will be ... (Below threshold)
JLawson:

"I wonder if it will be to declare martial law and the elections null and void."

He's pretty dense, and damned self-centered, and significantly out of touch with the reality his programs and decisions have shoveled over the rest of us - but there's GOT to be someone close to him (or his handlers) who would look at such a proposal and go "Oh, HELL no."

I think it'd be damned unlikely in the first place - even the party bosses in Chicago aren't so blatant. They bide their time, knowing the electorate will forget and they can go back to stuffing the ballot boxes next election.

If not - if he has indeed surrounded himself with syncophants and yes-men to the point he could try something like this, then the resulting period would be historic - and not in a good way, either.

Galoob aka jim x, will cry ... (Below threshold)
914:

Galoob aka jim x, will cry on his purple dinosaur tonight.

I just want to see the face... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

I just want to see the faces of Keefums and Chrissy at the end of the evening. Maybe they'll join together for a good cry.

Vote for the tea party, and... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

Vote for the tea party, and the GOP and to give them the opportunity to be 'Washington's New Big Spenders' .

"No compromise" Boehner said his first order of business will be repeal the medicare cuts, of the Obama healthcare reform act.

250 House; 48 Senate.... (Below threshold)
Peter F.:

250 House; 48 Senate.

Who do I most want to see c... (Below threshold)
Maddox:

Who do I most want to see concede?

Obama




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