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What Will Egypt Look Like In One Year?

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The airwaves have been filled with conjecture on what the departure of President Hosni Mubarak will mean for Egypt. One of the benefits of blogs is that our content lasts forever, especially comments.

So here's the idea: Give your guess on what Egypt will look like one year after their day of revolution and when the one year anniversary of this day is upon us we will (hopefully) be able to tell who got it right and who got it wrong. 

At this point it's really anyone's guess anyway...

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Comments (26)

Based on the restraint show... (Below threshold)
Ken in Camarillo:

Based on the restraint shown by most of the Egyptian players to avoid a bloodbath, I think there is a chance for a decent outcome, meaning the Muslim Brotherhood will not have control. I think the best chance of this happening is that their military will in effect decree that the Muslim Brotherhood will not prevail, maybe by outright prohibition of their organization.

If the military does not ex... (Below threshold)
Ken in Camarillo:

If the military does not exert control with some "guardrails", whichever group has the nastiest thugs will prevail.

One year, eh? I expect to ... (Below threshold)
wolfwalker:

One year, eh? I expect to see a very new democratically-elected government, elected and organized according to the existing constitution, trying to figure out what it's doing and how to do it before everything falls apart, and heavily dependent on the Egyptian Army to keep order. There will be a lot of quarreling factions, but none will be in real control. Probably additional repression of Coptic Christians and other minorities. Probably a breakdown of border security and a lot more smuggling into Gaza. Possibly an effort to write a new constitution. But no major violence. That will come in two or three years, when the new government's inevitable balancing act doesn't satisfy everyone and Iranian-paid agitators start rabble-rousing.

One critical item that I haven't seen anyone mention yet: tourism. Visitors to the Giza Plateau and other ancient sites produce something like 10% of Egypt's GDP, and thousands of jobs for locals. If there's a drastic fall in tourism and/or archaeological projects, you're going to see a lot of people get very unhappy very fast.

I have no idea what will tu... (Below threshold)
James H:

I have no idea what will turn out. There's a really good chance Egypt will turn into a military dictatorship. Or, rather, continue to be a military dictatorship. From the US perspective, this would be preferable to a clerical state, but it probably would not address young Egyptians' economic concerns.

Assuming Egypt becomes some semblance of a democracy, the Muslim Brotherhood's role is an open question. While it is the forerunner of al-Qaida et. al., the Brotherhood also has political divisions within it. Will it turn into the Taliban? Hamas? The Muslim equivalent of the American Religious Right? Who knows?

Iran... (Below threshold)

Iran

I spent a year in the Horn ... (Below threshold)
Rick13:

I spent a year in the Horn of Africa. The entire region is unstable and ready to burst. If Egypt falls, get ready for a whole new front on the GWOT. We've been there since 2002 and we've wasted a lot of money (see USAID) and accomplished almost nothing.

We've allowed the Djiboutian President to change the Constitution so that he can run for a third term without any competition. He keeps his people down by supplying them with plenty of Khat (or Chat). It's shipped in daily from Ethiopia using Djiboutian military planes. His wife is a wealthy Ethiopian landowner. That just happens to be where the Khat is grown. We just turn our backs to that.

Just Google CJTF-HOA sometime. Or, AFRICOM. It all looks like a great effort. The truth is soldiers and sailors are going there to make a lot of money and do very little. They earn the same as the soldiers and marines in Iraq and Afghanistan. Camp Lemonier is a base of 3500 that supports less than 100 downrange. How many O-5's and O-6's do you need to run a base that small? They talk about cutting the defense spending, just do audits of CJTF-HOA!

One year really isn't a lon... (Below threshold)

One year really isn't a long enough perspective to judge the long term consequences of these events. I think a year from now Egypt will appear to be quiescent. What I think will actually be going on then is, MB and other jihadi-friendly groups will be feeling out the new status quo for cracks and weaknesses to exploit the next time popular unrest flares up.

I am thinking they will pro... (Below threshold)
Rich:

I am thinking they will probably have a single leader who is basically a god on earth. They will wear skirts and long braided goatee's,and dark mascara. The will be awesome builders and farmers. I am thinking they will be building all kinds of monuments to their god-leader which will last for thousands of years.

Iran... (Below threshold)
PBunyan:

Iran

I agree that it will more l... (Below threshold)
Bill Singer:

I agree that it will more likely resemble Iran...unless social networking exerts its influence on the youth as it did in Egypt. Yet the resignation of a despot does not equate with the dawn of a true constitutional democracy. When the Shah was overthrown, there were pundits who extolled the virtues of a theocracy and actually believed the Ayatollah would be another Ghandi. Wrong. One can only surmise the influence of Facebook and Twitter in repressive regimes elsewhere in the region and come away with the belief that such leaders will seek to outlaw social networking. But whatever course its leaders take, their disdain for the US is evident and it seems unlikely they will seek our counsel.

I'm leaning towards some fo... (Below threshold)
Jon:

I'm leaning towards some form of military rule, at this point. It's going to be very hard for them to relinquish control to civilians as long as the situation remains "unstable."

While I've read about the M... (Below threshold)
Walter Cronanty:

While I've read about the Muslim Brotherhood and the military, I've not read about any other organized "political party" [for want of a better term]. A quick election, say in less than one year, seems unlikely to be terribly successful. Without organized opposition, I fear that the MB would be able to swamp an election process, with, for example, the MB garnering 35% of the vote and 10 to 15 splinter, unorganized "parties" from a broad spectrum of political/religious beliefs splitting the remaining 65% of the vote. We take for granted our history of political parties and the inherent stability they provide.

I think they will have 9.6%... (Below threshold)
914:

I think they will have 9.6% unemployment and hope for a different change.

Best case scenario... (Below threshold)
irongrampa:


Best case scenario would be for Egypt to resemble the other fledgling democracy---Iraq.

Reality indicates that it won't be. You're going to see the MB gain ascendancy, resulting in an unstable environment. This region is far from genuine progress, the primary reason being the radical influence of Islamists. Spin it however you wish, that fact remains.

I'll wager that the world's policeman will be called once more to deter the upcoming chaos, as we always are.

THEN things will change for the better. It should be said, however, that this can't happen unless the administration shows competence on more than a 3rd grade level.

SWAG - the military will st... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

SWAG - the military will still be "in temporary control". How repressive that control is; will be directly proportional to the involvement of Iranian agents bent on destabilization. The Muslim Brotherhood will continue its 'reasonable' approach so as to gain an upper hand in the country's political structure. However, if they continue to be stymied in that approach - they'll try other means.

Pyramids will still be ther... (Below threshold)
galoob:

Pyramids will still be there.

"I'll wager that the world'... (Below threshold)
Les Nessman:

"I'll wager that the world's policeman will be called once more to deter the upcoming chaos, as we always are."

No matter what happens, Uncle Sugar will be called upon to provide more money. Obama will call for billion$ for the 'Freedom Fighters'.

Predicting what they will be like a year from now is a very short term and it's not enough time to draw conclusions, as others have already said above.

However, the flashpoint for the latest uprisings was unemployment and food scarcity. With the world economy still in the dumps, that will not get better anytime soon.
They are just one downturn or crop failure away from more riots; that could happen as soon as mere months, or weeks. I think that applies to a lot of countries over there.

I agree with the posters ab... (Below threshold)
Maddox:

I agree with the posters above who say "Iran"

I have no real idea. I am s... (Below threshold)
WildWillie:

I have no real idea. I am skeptical. The Middle East has not been stable for some time.

I will say that Obama and his administration had no idea this demostration was going to happen. None. What the hell do we pay our intelligience czar for? ww

One year? Well, first, Ira... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

One year? Well, first, Iraq is a fantasy. They only got where they are with US occupation to maintain security and keep the various radicals and power-mongers at bay while their institutions became established - and even so it's taken several years and isn't yet completely out of the proverbial woods.

Best case scenario: the military installs a new strongman, institutes some reforms, and gets a break on food prices (but the only way that is even possible now, with drought worsening in China, is if the US stops our insane subsidy of corn ethanol diverting the food stocks), and is thus able to restore some stability.

Worse case: Iran. And with Obama's "smart diplomacy," this is the most likely scenario, unfortunately.

Sandy, with a chance of cam... (Below threshold)
SCSIwuzzy:

Sandy, with a chance of camels

I hope the rightwing blogos... (Below threshold)
eaglewingz08:

I hope the rightwing blogosphere is bookmarking all these liberal paeans to Obama, cause when the MUSLIM brotherhood (not a secular organization) stages its own Reichstag fire and takes over Egypt, we want to have our ammunition ready when the left/liberal media complex then says it was George Bush's fault that Egypt turned to the MB. Or to put it another way, the Obama Administration's living by the MUSLIM brotherhood, may very well die by the MUSLIM brotherhood.

Basing my guess on the mu... (Below threshold)
gaius piconius:

Basing my guess on the muslim track record of many years I have a darker prediction, one that seems quite plausible in that the world's champion is effectively controlled, for the very first time by a man who really has no discernable scrotum to flash in the Whitehouse showers. In one year Islam will be taking control of Egypt, because the people will it so. Ditto Jordan. The cordon, now completed by Lebanon and Syria will, in effect, strap Israel to the anvil waiting again for the arab and Afterdinnerjacket's hammers to fall. Now, stay with me, because this is not 67 or 73. Israel fashioned an expression in the late 1940s after analysing the 'shoah' of the Nation Socialists...NEVER AGAIN...! But 60000 plus missiles to the north, heavens knows what in Iran, a not so weak military in Syria armed with some real nasties in hiding and a 'no pansies' Egyptian military that is US armed and US trained. Conventionally, no pushover here. And not to be ignored is the unsettling arrogant and irrational trust in Allah that all these wankers have which lends to the likelyhood that arab and Iranian caution will be thrown to the wind, and Israel will act...unconventionally, (this is not 63 or 73)...and Israel will incur savage consequences. But, Tehran, Qum, other Iranian targets perhaps...all glass. Damascus a similar fate. Amman, something less drastic, but decisive. Lebanon's interior a smaller over glasure, and it's southern border centering on Jenin, a massive pasting and occupation. As a special bonus to Egypt, Israel's ally if not friend since Saddat, a more limited demonstration of Israel's might and Israel's ballocks, leaving Egypt, not Iran as leader in the muslim realm; a very much humbled and chastened muslim realm which might then draw from the Old Testament of the jews, a maxim of their own, 'pride goeth before a fall', rendered in the original I believe as, 'destruction'.
Now, Wizbangers, let 'Gaius the Dark' venture another prophesy on Kevin's dime......the world in the west will sigh a huge sigh of relief during which the wankers of academe and the media..ocrity will claim, "but actually, truth be told, we all supported Israel from the outset". The same cold shoulder they offered Moscow in 1989...phoney [email protected]!

Gaza X 160.Incited... (Below threshold)

Gaza X 160.

Incited, encouraged and facilitated by the Buraq Hussayn bin Buraq Hussayn bin Hussayn Ubambi followership -- and enabled by Three Billion United States Dollars in Aid.

We've heard from the Buraq ... (Below threshold)

We've heard from the Buraq Hussayn bin Buraq Hussayn bin Hussyn Ubambi followship about that gormless gang's multiple-personality-deranged reaction to the street agitating of the fewer than
2% of Egypt's eighty-odd millions who comprise its elite, its actual and pdeudo-intellectuals and its students, naive and less so.

During the next one year -- and beyond -- we'll hear from the other ninety-eight per cent.

Expect many many many al Qeada-styled bombings and other mass murders.

gaius piconius? We... (Below threshold)

gaius piconius?

Well said, Sir!

Hear! Hear!

We have but sowed the wind ....




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