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The Mideastern World, It Is Exploding

Now it's Libya.

The popular uprisings in the Arab/Muslim world are getting intense. Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Iran, now Libya.

That each of these states could stand some serious reform is beyond dispute. However, with the possible exception of Libya, none of those states could be described as "as bad as possible."

Bill Cosby has a whole routine about how "you don't challenge 'worse.'" And there's an aphorism in football that "when you throw the ball, there are three possible outcomes -- two of whom are bad."

We're already seeing signs that the change in Egypt is trending towards a more militant form of Islam. Persecution of Coptic Christians are increasing, and the Google exec who played a key role in the movement is being shoved aside.

In Libya, no one really knows what the hell is going on.

In Iran, the mullahs are cracking down, looking to solidify their hold on power and keep the general unrest in the region from taking root. They, too, remember The Spirit of '79 that swept them into power.

One of the reasons I supported the toppling of Saddam Hussein was to put the petty tyrants and theocrats and kleptocrats in the region on notice that they did not have a warranty on their thrones, and to encourage the common folks to take stands for their own liberty. That wavered considerably over the intervening years, but now seems to be coming to fruition.

Will it end up like the insurrections against Saddam after the first Gulf War, when the Kurds and the southern Iraqis took our encouragement, then were left high and dry when we didn't support them?

Will it end up like Iran, when the reform movement gets hijacked by the Islamists?

Will it end up like Afghanistan after the Soviets pulled out, with ferocious internal fighting?

I dunno. And anyone who says they do know is a damned liar.

But I do know that this is a time for "smart diplomacy" and serious intelligence, so we can see how things are trending and figure out how to get ahead of the curve in at least one or two places.

But the chances of getting that from this current administration could go to either extreme:

Fat chance and slim chance.

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Comments (21)

This should be f... (Below threshold)
irongrampa:

This should be fun. I suspect that the various tribal factions MAY form a loose coalition to dislodge the Q-man. All the while trumpeting neat slogans about eternal brotherhood with each other. Shared hatred can make odd bedfellows.

IF he's gone, then these tribes will likely dissolve again, each competing to get control of that sweet,sweet oil. Predict lots of bloodshed, and damn little actual government for a LONG time.

Wonder what the admin will have to say about this latest development?

RE: "Will it end up like th... (Below threshold)
kevino:

RE: "Will it end up like the insurrections against Saddam after the first Gulf War, when the Kurds and the southern Iraqis took our encouragement, then were left high and dry when we didn't support them?"

Does it matter? The Dhimmicrats, having spent years proving that the US is a Paper Tiger that is not capable of staying in a sustained fight where they have to suffer casualties, have undermined our credibility abroad to an extent that no one in the Middle East with any brains will care if we support them or not -- because clearly we won't support anyone for very long. Support by the US President is of little value in the short-term and of no value in the long-term.


RE: "Will it end up like Iran, when the reform movement gets hijacked by the Islamists?"

For average civilians in the Middle East, is there an alternative? The loudest voice and the biggest fist belongs to the Islamists. "When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse."

I think that the probability is very high that the Islamists will make great strides.

For several years now, people like Rep. Pelosi, Sen. Reid, President Obama, and several commentators in this forum have advocated the position that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were not worth the price; that showing cowardice and impatience in the face of a determined enemy was no big deal; that advocating justice and freedom in the Middle East was a waste of time; and that having a relatively secular and peaceful Iraq as an example of what was possible was not important.

Well, now we're going to hear the usual excuses. "No one could have predicted that this would happen." "We can't understand why people don't believe that the US is serious." "It's all Bush's fault."

It's like the nuclear Iran: there's always an excuse. Someone else is always to blame. They cannot accept responsibility for the damage that they do.

Mid-east crisis management ... (Below threshold)
914:

Mid-east crisis management is Barry's middle name.

For those who study Biblica... (Below threshold)
Call me darlin':

For those who study Biblical prophecy at all, this all seems very familiar. Reading the headlines is like reading Ezekial, Daniel, Isaiah and/or Revelation.

Now is the time to decide, will you accept God's grace and gift of eternal salvation ... or will you reject that and condemn yourself to His wrath? (And not deciding, aka agnosticism, is the same as rejecting ... yes, I'm looking at you, Jay Tea)

While we may not know the hour, or even the day, of His return, we are to study the Scripture, so that we may know the season when it is upon us. God's chosen people have returned to Israel. The generation is at its end, Gog and Magog are poised to destroy Israel, as soon as her protector turns away (that would be the USA). Do you know who Magog is thought to be? Russia. Why was this idea scorned by some theologians? Because Russia has no reason to desire Israel - she has no oil or natural resources that Russia does not have herself. But wait ... wasn't the motherlode of natural gas just discovered in the waters of the Mediterranean in Israeli possession?

One more morsel ... Revelation tells us that one of the beasts will be stricken with a mortal head wound, yet will live. Where's Mubarak, and what happened to him last week (beside being deposed)? Hint: in a coma, near death, after suffering a massive stroke.

Saved through grace, saved through wrath, or condemned to the fiery lake for eternity? I made my choice ... you?

How long will this administ... (Below threshold)
914:

How long will this administration wait, to open the OIL spigots for the good of the Country?

One would think he has gum between the ears and cotton for gray matter by the way he behaves.

Is Barry's wish for the destruction of America prophetic and purposeful?

Yes and yes.

The Saudi's should be conce... (Below threshold)
Hank:

The Saudi's should be concerned.

Ironically enough, Iraq is relatively quiet.

Obama will have something to say about these events, as soon as Valerie Jarrett decides what that is.

As an evangelical Christian... (Below threshold)
jim m:

As an evangelical Christian I find those who make claims that current events are the fulfillment of prophesy from Daniel or Revelation etc do more to make a mockery of Christian faith than they do to encourage conversion.

The Bible tells us that we cannot know the hour of Christ's return, why is it that Christians think that they can still know when? Why do they have such a hard time keeping their yaps shut when they just sound ignorant? It comes off as pride and arrogance.

When the end comes is not important. It could happen crossing the street tomorrow for any one of us. The issue is that if we believe in an afterlife, what outside our own imagination do we have that tells us what it is and whether we get there? That is the question people must answer. Try steering them to ask the question rather than brow beating them with bogus interpretation of prophesy.

"Smart Diplomacy"? <... (Below threshold)
GarandFan:

"Smart Diplomacy"?

From the folks who called the last election results in Iran 'duly elected'?

They ain't got a clue. Just ask Joey "Foreign Policy Master" Biden.

Pax Romana! Pax Britann... (Below threshold)
gaius piconius:

Pax Romana! Pax Britannica Pax Americana

They all lead to Jay's very fair insight, " and anybody who says they do is a bloody liar".

However, a prognostication that deserves consideration and also to be given a very credible weighing-in is this most recent one.

Pax Judaeorum

The Lord's chosen people may have no other options in the absence of Uncle Remus.

#6 Hank, that's beautiful <... (Below threshold)
Pretzel Logic:

#6 Hank, that's beautiful

Can't he just eat his waffl... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

Can't he just eat his waffle?

Besides, Michelle is very busy saving America's health from obesity - she's even working hard at it while on vacation in Vail, CO. She dined at Restaurant Kelly Liken in Vail Village where she enjoyed some locally-grown veggies, along with her braised short ribs (1500+ calories, 140 fat grams).

She offered to lecture Mubarak and Qaddafi on the wonders of arugula, but neither accepted - so what's a gal with an appetite to do?

Barak is so busy he couldn't even go on vacation with his family. He's so deep in planning places for Wisconsin Democrats to hide out near Chicago that he hasn't even been able to host a White House party or play golf in nearly two weeks. The guy is hard at work making America safe for socialism and union thugs, and you expect him to deal with the Middle East, too?

C'mon, guys, he's just buying some shrimp. Besides, he already issued a statement about how it's all the Joos' fault and they should stop building apartments in their capital. What the heck do you expect him to do?

Aw, Jim ... ya know, I have... (Below threshold)
Call me darlin':

Aw, Jim ... ya know, I have greatly admired and have been impressed with much of what you post here in the comments on Wizbang, but this one greatly disappoints me.

As an evangelical, you should know that we are commanded to spread the good news of Our Lord and his promises to us. We are not told to cover up or play down the truth - that those who reject His grace and gift of salvation are condemning themselves to hell. Do you seriously say "Here's a gift. Freely given to you. Take it ... " with nothing about what happens if it is NOT taken? You do those you witness to a great disservice if you do not speak of the truth of salvation and condemnation. Leave that to the heretical emergent churches where sin and evil do not exist, God is just a kindly old man and we're all good and worthy.

Trivia: In which book does the word "wrath" appear most often?

And insofar as knowing the prophecies and recognizing their fulfillment:

[25] “And there will be signs in sun and moon and stars, and on the earth distress of nations in perplexity because of the roaring of the sea and the waves, [26] people fainting with fear and with foreboding of what is coming on the world. For the powers of the heavens will be shaken. [27] And then they will see the Son of Man coming in a cloud with power and great glory. [28] Now when these things begin to take place, straighten up and raise your heads, because your redemption is drawing near.”
(Luke 21:25-28 ESV)

And also Revelation 1:3 and all of chapter 3.

No, we will not know the hour nor the day, and I am not claiming to, nor is any serious student of the prophecies, but we are given these signs so that we know the season. The signs are coming at us, it seems faster and faster every day.

Matthew 22:37 - And he said to him, “You shall love the Lord your God with all your heart and with all your soul and with all your mind.

All your MIND. Love the Lord, your GOD - with all your mind. " In the beginning was the Word, and the Word was with God, and the Word was God." Know and love the Word - the Scriptures - as you would know and love God, for they are one and the same.

If you (or anyone) is interested, I've a collection of Bible prophecies and related events that would seem to fulfill them. I'd be glad to share.

I went to service every Sun... (Below threshold)
jim m:

I went to service every Sunday for 12 years with Pastor James McDonald (look him up). The one thing he taught about evangelism is that there are green apples and red apples. He used to say that if the fruit isn't ripe we shouldn't try to pick it. He said that our responsibility was to not bruise the fruit if it wasn't ready.

That's all. I see the point for sharing the Gospel(and the necessity). But I really dislike trying to use end times prophesy as a tool for evangelism. I don't think it works. I think you do better getting people to think about why they believe what they believe; making them look for something outside themselves and the thinking of other men. Objective truth exists outside of human opinion. People rarely examine why they believe what they do.

I was raised an atheist. I always found the use of apocalyptic scripture to be a huge turn off in evangelism. If people don't accept the premise of a need for salvation they will find end times prophesy very bizarre.

I didn't mean to offend, although I suppose I was a bit too blunt. As they say: the same sun that softens the wax, hardens the clay. I just try not to harden the clay when I can avoid it.

Seriously, Look him up...</... (Below threshold)
jim m:
Oil prices on the rise as B... (Below threshold)
914:

Oil prices on the rise as Barry kicks back on a sofa to have some beers on this former Presidents day... Dereliction of duty comes to mind.

Oh, Barry, its 3am. Bows down, bows down.

Oh, Barry, Mubaracks gone. Bows down, bows down

Oh, Barry, 3 beers gone. Drink on, stupid clown

No offense taken, Jim. I wa... (Below threshold)
Call me darlin':

No offense taken, Jim. I was just a little surprised at your response, is all. We approach the matter from two different angles, and each in their own way, are good.

I do not speak out much to witness ... it isn't really my personality. But when the spirit moves me, well ... I try to listen, and be ready to say "Yes, Lord" to whatever He asks of me. He gives me the words, and I hope I repeat them correctly. If He sends another to rebuke me when I am wrong, well then, so be it. Or perhaps He sends another to challenge me ... as iron sharpens iron. Or many other possibilities. And in the public exchange, there may be one silently watching and listening that hears the Word, opens his or her heart to the Spirit and is saved.

Who knows? I offer myself humbly as a servant to the Lord, to be used in His Will, as but a lump of clay in the Potter's hands.

Will it end up like a big c... (Below threshold)
Roy:

Will it end up like a big chunk of Africa - where factions and tribes still go around hacking one another to death with machetes?

People like "darlin'" are g... (Below threshold)
James H:

People like "darlin'" are going to be really, really disappointed when they get to the afterlife and Ma'at is waiting with a feather and a scale.

@17 We can always hope... (Below threshold)
Olsoljer:

@17 We can always hope

I say we back out and let them kill each other off until there is only one strong faction, and if it is radical islamists, take 'em out. By that time maybe Europe, the Russians, and the Chinese will have had enough terrorism to either help or give tacit approval.

"People like "darlin'" are ... (Below threshold)
914:

"People like "darlin'" are going to be really, really disappointed when they get to the afterlife and Ma'at is waiting with a feather and a scale."


People like you are going to be even more so, when they do not get there.

There is no after life. Sto... (Below threshold)
John S:

There is no after life. Stop wasting what little time you have left worrying about heaven and try to live a life.

Back on topic: Obama's middle east policy looks like Jimmy Carter on steriods and is unfolding as predicted in November 2008. Then again, if all of the middle east falls to Islamic tyrannies, who's to say this wasn’t the goal of our Muslim-in-chief? The end-game will be a nuclear war. Israel was 300 warheads. It won’t be pretty.




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