« Commemorate Your Visit To The Rotunda | Main | Georgia On His Mind - Forever »

Is It Any Coincidence?

The Kerry Theory is that there is an inverse relationship between the level and reach of Kerry media coverage and his standing in the polls. In simple English - less Kerry equals better polling numbers, more Kerry equals worse polling numbers. The other day I pointed out that liberal and conservative media organizations were both claiming an excellent week for Bush after a few months of nothing but bad news. Of course former President Reagan passed away and both campaigns voluntarily adopted a week log moratorium on campaigning.

Today the first new poll in weeks came out today:

LA Times - Voters shift in favor of Kerry (Registration required - you can get an ID at BugMeNot)

The Kerry theory holds.


Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Is It Any Coincidence?:

» BoiFromTroy linked with Trojan Huddle: Thursday is the new Friday

Comments (2)

At first blush, I wouldn't ... (Below threshold)

At first blush, I wouldn't say that this poll doesn't necessarily demonstrate the "Kerry theory" because it was last Saturday through Tuesday. While it included a few days of Bush's good week, the snap shot is a bit early for the good week to congeal in voter's minds. (The Tenet resignation led the headlineslast Friday; sending the public into the weekend with that last taste of Bush in their mouths) If another poll taken this Saturday through Tuesday showed similar results, I'll concur that the theory appears to hold.

This poll would seem to better capture that snapshot.

I heard somebody picking th... (Below threshold)

I heard somebody picking this poll apart and suggesting that the sample was weighted too heavily in favor of Democrats to be representative. Something about the margins of the two candidates among Democrats, Republicans and independents.

Apparently the same poll finds that Bush leads with independents and has a bigger margin among Republicans than Kerry has with Democrats. So how it can be that Kerry is leading overall is hard to credit unless they included a disproportionate number of Democrats in the sample.

It's permissible to do that but you have to weight the overall results to reflect the real-world balance between Dems and Republicans. And it sounds like the L.A. Puppy Trainer's pollster didn't do that.






Follow Wizbang

Follow Wizbang on FacebookFollow Wizbang on TwitterSubscribe to Wizbang feedWizbang Mobile


Send e-mail tips to us:

[email protected]

Fresh Links


Section Editor: Maggie Whitton

Editors: Jay Tea, Lorie Byrd, Kim Priestap, DJ Drummond, Michael Laprarie, Baron Von Ottomatic, Shawn Mallow, Rick, Dan Karipides, Michael Avitablile, Charlie Quidnunc, Steve Schippert

Emeritus: Paul, Mary Katherine Ham, Jim Addison, Alexander K. McClure, Cassy Fiano, Bill Jempty, John Stansbury, Rob Port

In Memorium: HughS

All original content copyright © 2003-2010 by Wizbang®, LLC. All rights reserved. Wizbang® is a registered service mark.

Powered by Movable Type Pro 4.361

Hosting by ServInt

Ratings on this site are powered by the Ajax Ratings Pro plugin for Movable Type.

Search on this site is powered by the FastSearch plugin for Movable Type.

Blogrolls on this site are powered by the MT-Blogroll.

Temporary site design is based on Cutline and Cutline for MT. Graphics by Apothegm Designs.

Author Login

Terms Of Service

DCMA Compliance Notice

Privacy Policy