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Get Used To This

The latest Gallup Poll has Bush and Kerry even in a 2 man (and a 3 man - with Nader) race. My gut instinct is that Kerry can't get higher than around 54%, and Bush may be capable of getting to a higher percentage with a major event (such as the capture of OBL). Neither man is likely to get break out of the 42% - 52% range (in either direction), and the polling numbers may well look exactly as they do now come the end of October.

It's shaping up to be a repeat of 2000...

Update: Scott Elliot has more on the poll numbers.

Comments (2)

Agreed, Kevin. Its going to... (Below threshold)

Agreed, Kevin. Its going to be a very close race unless something dramatic happens like the capture of OBL. It may very well come down to a few thousand votes in places like Florida, Ohio, West Virginia, and Missouri.

Kevin, I think it's more li... (Below threshold)

Kevin, I think it's more like 1980. Back then, the polls showed Reagan and Carter basically even until the debates. At the point when the American public was able to compare the two candidates face to face, the choice became clear. I also spoke with a number of people who were doing statistical modelling on Wall Street, and they said that a couple of weeks before the debates the models were all pointing to a huge win by Reagan.

Admittedly, things have changed since 1980, and the knives are sharper, but I think that when the American public gets a view of Kerry vs. Bush in a debate, the choice will become clearer for everyone. If you check some of the other web sites, such as the Iowa predictions market or tradesports, the spread currently favorts Bush, and it's widening.

As I said, alot can happen between now and then, and it's a long way to November. All I'm saying is that the current polls may not be accurate for a number of reasons, including the way the questions are phrased or the type of sample that is being used. Thanks for your patience.






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