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Lies, Damn Lies, And Statistics II

Picking up where Kevin left off below...

A lot has been made over the political impact of Fahrenheit 9/11. I'm not that impressed for a number of reasons.

There was a report last week that the average movie now costs 6.04 nationwide. If you do that math (23,920,637/6.04) you get about 3.9 million people seeing the movie. (Actually the real number is far lower as most of the people that saw it were in NY and SF which have higher ticket prices.)

To put that number in perspective, this election there will be well in excess of 100 million votes cast.

Further, Moore is preaching to the choir. The media breathlessly reported that people stood up and cheered the film. This means obviously it was the goofball left going to the movie anyway. These people were hardly Bush votes going in the door.

The real question is, how will it effect turn out? History tells us the greater the controversy in an election, the higher the turnout. Certainly, a guy lying about the President and getting away with it has pissed off Republicans. Yet, I don't see it helping the left. In fact it might be highly dangerous to the left.

Bush 41 lost to Bill Clinton because Republicans knew that nobody would vote for someone with Clinton's background. They ran a horrible campaign because they never thought they could lose it. There can hardly be anything more self-satisfying to a group of goofball liberals than having their delusions validated on the big screen. They know that everyone is voting against Bush. After all, everyone cheered at the movie. Right? That is highly dangerous for turnout.

Lastly, history tells me this is a boon for Republicans. Mostly because every time we have one of these "big events" that is supposed to help the Dems it backfires.

The most obvious example was the 'Paul Wellstone Memorial Campaign Rally and Keg Party.' Even Clinton's very election was supposed to be the end of Republican rule forever but instead gave us massive Republican gains.

Many on the left are excited over the movie. If I were them, I wouldn't open the champaign just yet.


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Comments (10)

Preaching to the choir?... (Below threshold)

Preaching to the choir?

Yeah, I thought that at first as well, but then again, I am in the choir. But the movie is doing quite well in both Republican and Democratic states.

I'm thinking it's more than just the liberals that are seeing the movie.

Do I think that the election will be decided by this movie? Nope, but I don't think that it will hurt anything.

I guess if you believe that... (Below threshold)

I guess if you believe that then you believe the rest of the movie as well... It was debunked a few days ago. Google is your friend.

Do you have any links to ne... (Below threshold)

Do you have any links to news sources that debunk the link I sent? I would be curious to read them.


So wait, what exactly is yo... (Below threshold)

So wait, what exactly is your claim? That there are LIBERALS in Texas/South Carolina or otherwise "red" states?

Oh. My. God.

Clearly our attempts to ideologically cleanse the heathen masses from our ranks has failed utterly.


Or, your point might be that because of F9/11's Garafalo-like drawing power, that it proves that it reaches across party lines and is truly an "event."

That possible--but then again, *I* saw the film on Tuesday and not from any ideological AFFINITY towards it.

Or, equally plausible is that these "red" states actually do have enough leftists in them (see: botched cleansing efforts) to provide much of the box office for the film.

So basically you've established....something....

Bush will win the election,... (Below threshold)

Bush will win the election, and Moore will make money like a real Republican :)

"There was a report last... (Below threshold)
Ron Atkinson:

"There was a report last week that the average movie now costs 6.04 nationwide. If you do that math (23,920,637/6.04) you get about 3.9 million people seeing the movie. (Actually the real number is far lower as most of the people that saw it were in NY and SF which have higher ticket prices.)"

Wow. 3.9 million in less than a week. That's pretty high. And even if it drops off to 250,000 a week, and with the film coming out on DVD before the election that is an easily attainable figure, ~10 million more people will have seen it by the time of the election.

I think 10 million votes is enough to swing the election. Not that everyone who sees it would vote against Bush, but it's not that you have to actually see the film for it to change your opinion. After all, there's enough TV coverage of it.

Ron,10 million wou... (Below threshold)


10 million would be enough to swing the election. Just not in New York or California--which are already well into the azure category.

If it makes 23 million in Ohio, I'll change my tune

In other news, Clinton's <i... (Below threshold)

In other news, Clinton's My Life hasn't sold nearly as many copies as the Bible. Mark it down as another failure right beside F9/11! ;)

Ron,How many of thos... (Below threshold)

How many of those DVD sales do you think are going to be True Believers, who had already seen the movie? I'd say pretty much all of them, which does nothing to boost the numbers (except for the numbers deposited in Mickey's bank account).

The Gores and the Moores h... (Below threshold)

The Gores and the Moores have turned a lot of people who've been quite disappointed in Dubya's domestic policies back into broken glass Republicans. In '92 disgruntled Republicans either stayed home or voted Perot. In '96 the Pat's Pitchfork Brigades stayed home in November.
The antics of the Left preclude that happening this year.
Yes, I'm disappointed in some of what Dubya has done, giving the Education Bill to Ted the Big Head, abandoning his judicial nominees, etc. I damned sure ain't gonna hand the country over to the likes of Mickey Moore, though.
We learned a lesson in '92 and '96.






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