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Kerry steps in deep Qa Qaa

Since the breaking of the Al Qaa Qa "missing" explosives story, Kerry has hit the story hard. His next 18 speeches, (that I know of) started with it. So fixated was Kerry, that 3 days after the story broke, he gave a speech ostensibly on the economy but he spent over 1/3 of it on the Al Qaa Qa story.

After a while, he became the story. The press had nothing to add and frankly, the story was crumbling, but since that was all Kerry was talking about, it stayed front page news. Kerry was convinced he had manna from heaven in the form of a hit piece perpetrated by CBS News and the New York Times. He was sure he could ride it to victory.

But a funny thing happened on Kerry's trip to Pennsylvania Avenue. He lost big ground in the polls. This can be seen most vividly in the Washington Post tracking poll. A tracking poll is done every night to follow the momentum of the candidate. In the closing days of a big race, tracking polls tend to be very affected by big news stories about a candidate. For obvious reasons, tracking polls are usually 24 hours behind the news cycle.

For the sake of clarity, I only show 1 week before the story.


Kerry was on a roll, gaining momentum quickly, but that changed just as quickly. As could be expected, his momentum latest 24 hours after the news broke but then his fixation on the story started working against him. It is clear that Al Qa Qaa is not helping John Kerry. From his all time peak of 50 points, he has dropped a point per day. Meanwhile, Bush who had leveled off at 48% is now up to 50%.

The effects of these changes can be seen in the Electoral College votes as well.

The day after the story broke Kerry had closed the gap considerably in the EC vote. According to RPC, the numbers looked like this.

10/26 George Bush 234 -- John Kerry 228
10/28 George Bush 232 -- John Kerry 207

Once they update the numbers, it will probably look even worse for Kerry.

Other sites in our tracking tool showed similar results as well. While some even put Kerry in the lead for EC votes last week, they all showed Kerry with a 15-20ish point drop as the week ended with Bush staying in relatively the same position.

Leaks from the Bush camp have been quite positive in regards to their internal polling this week and one Bush campaign spokesman "guaranteed victory" in Ohio to Bill "loofa" O'Reilly. They must be pretty confident.

Kerry's people must see this by now. Especially with the Bin Laden tape to give him cover, look for Kerry to drop the story, it's killing him.


Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Kerry steps in deep Qa Qaa:

» Airborne Combat Engineer linked with Kerry saved (only to be slain later) by the tape?

» Josh's Weblog linked with Al Qaqaa and the Election

» PoliBlog linked with The Glittering Eye: RCP trends

» The American Mind linked with Kerry's Qa Qaa

» The American Mind linked with Kerry's Qa Qaa

Comments (11)

I've never felt Kerry had s... (Below threshold)

I've never felt Kerry had strong poll numbers. They seemed to flap in the wind much like Kerry. Only a complete anti-America, Bush-hating lunatic would continue trying to score points with the Al-Qaaqa story. And the bin Laden tape will only fortify and energize Bush's base while causing Kerry's Kool-Aid brigade to become a bit more nervous.

The news media however is trying to keep the presidential race close. Even Fox News started Special Report with the top story: And the race is tightening. How could it be tightening? And they keep asking the obvious, "Does the bin Laden tape help the president?" And then have statements that make the viewer believe it doesn't help either candidate. Bullshit from the media including Fox News Channel.

Now we can add in osama's O... (Below threshold)

Now we can add in osama's October gift and open up a landslide. How could anyone vote for kerry? I know Bush is not perfect but kerry is either a fool or a traitor.

It would seem that Memogate... (Below threshold)
John "Akatsukami" Braue:

It would seem that Memogate, the al-Qaqaa "scandal", et al., have justly destroyed the credibility of the mainline media with a significant proportion of Americans.

I don't know the MSM credib... (Below threshold)
Just Me:

I don't know the MSM credibility is destroyed, but I think they have certainly taken a hit in recent weeks.

I definitely agree that the MSM is going for a Kerry win, and even if they aren't, they like the idea of a close race, and choose to spin it that way.

I think Kerry's harping on the missing explosives has been a bad move on his part, mainly because the criticism is more a criticism of our troops at the field level than a worthwhile criticism of the administration.

I don't think OBL's endorsement of Kerry is going to help him either. I don't see how OBL showing up right now works in Kerry's favor.

I am just waiting for the MSM to try to drop another bomb on Bush over the next couple of days.

TITLE! HAHAHAHAAAohHahahaha... (Below threshold)


Paul, you made me laugh aloud, and I thank you!

JustMe: what seems to be t... (Below threshold)

JustMe: what seems to be the intense focus by the MSM this morning -- their last ditch power drive for Kerry -- is the attack on Republicans and the RNC and the entire voting process: RNC as "preventing" people from voting, all that.

While, actually, there's ongoing information about DEMOCRATS who abuse, even violate, the voting process, but that's not being reported in the MSM. Instead, I read quirky, creepy liberal partisan hack pieces this morning such as this crazed piece, and this crazed piece (note the "professor" used as "reference" -- I pity the poor students at Cal State who are subject to ravings such as that).

Oh, but Kerry may be less than honorably discharged from the military! Kerry is unfit for command! Kerry lied before the Senate! Democrats register false/invalid identities to "vote," Democrat "volunteers" at polling places actually take voters' fingers and place them on the "Kerry/Edwards" space and say "this is where you vote for President"....no, no mention of THAT.

This is off topic but I wan... (Below threshold)
Do Gooder:

This is off topic but I wanted to highlight this:

"We are trying to break this absolutely true story nationwide, i.e., Fox News, C-Span, and hopefully the major networks. We are positive that John Kerry was one of those dishonorably dismissed from the Navy for collaborating with the Viet Cong after he was released from active duty but still in the Navy and for a totally unauthorized trip to Hanoi. He later got an "honorable" separation in 1978, some 12 years after joining the Navy, under President Carter's "Amnesty Program" for draft dodgers, deserters, and other malcontents who fled to Canada and Holland, among other places, to avoid military service to our country."


- S - Lispy Lockbrain was o... (Below threshold)

- S - Lispy Lockbrain was on FOX ohdark 30 this am to try to get a head start on the next 72 hours... Since he had no opposition he tryed to put a "reasonable" non-tinfoil hat look on his comments....I think they sense impending doom....

- Paul, I have a few problems with the WPO poll. The data moves to smoothly, and has too much range. The smoothly part could be roundup, rounddown, but the large shifts would not happen in an evenly sampled demographic since the great majority of people have already decided and it would take rape or murder charges to move an even demographic that far that fast...

- If you look at their pie chart on the side under the question of "what issue is the most important" you get a clue as to their sample group. They show the economy as trumping Iraq so I have to believe the only possible group they could be polling is undecided's only ( from the range shifts ), and in a blue collar area heavily effected by layoff's etc. That sort of sample heavily favors Kerry, which makes Bush's lead even more dramatic....

- Also the upward inflection starts back on the 21th indicating something else around the 20th initiated Kerry's upward move. Then the explosives story kept it going....

- Who taught you yiddish... and isn't that ironic...*smirkle*

Slightly OT --It's... (Below threshold)

Slightly OT --

It's been fun watching the talking heads try to find a delicate way to discuss "Al Qa Qaa." Reminds me of when Uranus was in the news and they came to the belated realization that both possible pronunciations put them in deep kaka.

Teri - that's hilarious!</p... (Below threshold)

Teri - that's hilarious!

I wonder how they will pronounce D.D.* (Dee dee or Doo doo?)

D.D. = Dishonorable Discharge

Re Mr. Stinky Discharge - m... (Below threshold)

Re Mr. Stinky Discharge - maybe that was Hillary's plan: to have the DNC pick such a dishonorable candidate that he can be blackmailed, controlled and even impeached before 2008, opening the door for her to be nominated at the next election. No thought to the country's welfare, just power mad.






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