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Wizbang Electoral Vote Prediction

Wizbang 2004 Electoral Vote Prediction

I've been back and forth on Ohio, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if the final EV total was 271-267. There's a bunch of states the used to be solid Kerry that are now tossups, but I've assumed Kerry captures those states.

Les Jones is gathering bloggers predictions, and provides links to map generators at the LA Times and Wall Street Journal.

Note: I offered what I thought was a unique blog based wager with Duncan Black (aka Atrios) of Eschaton. The gist of the bet is that since both sites display Site Meter vistor stats prominently at the bottom of the page we would wager those stats against each others election prediction. Wizbang will get it's 5 millionth visitor within the next week and Eschaton is at 37 million. It's a simple bet - I predict a Bush victory, he predicts a Kerry victory. The loser of the bet would set their stats back to 0. The counter reset is temporary (I proposed from election day through inaguration day) and is accomplished by adding a negative number to the Site Meter start count adjustment field equal to the current number of visitors. In my case I would add negative 5 million visitors to the start count adjustment field on my Site Meter which would set the visitor count to zero. Done this way there is no loss of site statistics, as the change can be undone at any time. I never got a response, but the offer is still on the table...


Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Wizbang Electoral Vote Prediction:

» Just On The Other Side linked with Election Projections...

» aWpTiMuS.com linked with Awptidamos, My Election Prediction

» Outside The Beltway linked with OTB Election Prediction: Bush 286, Kerry 252

» Les Jones's Blog linked with Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections


» Secure Liberty linked with Official Prediction

» I'm N.O. Pundit! linked with Why George Bush Will Win

» I'm N.O. Pundit! linked with Why George Bush Will Win


» Blogs of War linked with Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction

» InTheBullpen.com linked with Prediction

» RIGHT ON RED >> linked with My Prediction(s)

» Six Meat Buffet linked with Caving into peer pressure

» roulette linked with roulette


Comments (13)

A very neat graphic...my sp... (Below threshold)

A very neat graphic...my spyware won't let me install it (java verboten) but I'll just link to here instead.

I THINK, too, that Ohio is going for Bush. Kerry's outright brawl of celebrity power there tells me he has more of a problem than is being otherwise revealed. AND, Hawaii just might go Republican, also, so...here's hoping. For HI to vote as Republican is truly a remarkable thing, just to give other people a perspective about this. It'd be like, well, NYCity going "conservative."

Your split looks like a pre... (Below threshold)

Your split looks like a pretty good starting point. Since weekend polls are eratic and we have yet to see weekday polls that capture any "bin Laden effect" there might be, it wouldn't be surprising to find that some adjustments are called for come Monday PM.

On election day, swings in a couple of eastern states can perhaps tip the scales in states to their west that have close races in the early going. For instance, if Bush holds FL but picks off PA then MN or WI might fall to Bush if Kerry doesn't have solid leads there. If Kerry takes a quick lead in FL then Bush might not hold Ohio.

Please, PLEASE don't write ... (Below threshold)
Jay Tea:

Please, PLEASE don't write us off here in Cow Hampshire! This is more "heart" than "head" talking right now, but I still have hopes we'll go red come Tuesday.


Swap Minnesota with Wiscons... (Below threshold)

Swap Minnesota with Wisconsin, and Bush takes New Mexico. 296 EC votes for Bush.

Kerry by 5% in PA.
Bush by 5% in OH.

Hawai'i to Kerry in a squeaker.


As a Wisconsin resident, I ... (Below threshold)

As a Wisconsin resident, I am deeply offended by your map.

Other than my state, looks great!

Bush 52-47.

(I was jk about being offen... (Below threshold)

(I was jk about being offended of course)

Give Bush NM and Wisconsin,... (Below threshold)
Greg D:

Give Bush NM and Wisconsin, and I think you'll be closer to the final outcome.

Don't give up on PA yet!<br... (Below threshold)

Don't give up on PA yet!
- A York,PA GOP Comm. member

I agree with Greg D -- plus... (Below threshold)

I agree with Greg D -- plus I think NH goes, if not bright red, than at least a rather dashing shade of pink.

I believe Bush will take FL... (Below threshold)

I believe Bush will take FL, OH and PA. Also, I'll go out on a limb and say Bush takes New Jersey in a squeaker. Why do I say this? Because while working for the Republican headquarters in northern NJ I sensed that although the Dems have a majority, things are going so well in Jersey as far as jobs and the economy that Kerry's support is very soft and few are rabid Bush haters. Whereas Bush supporters in the state are fired-up. Quinnipac has Bush and Kerry tied in NJ, which is an indication that even Dems are uncomfortable with Kerry.

I pray your right... (Below threshold)

I pray your right

LATIMES link is kaput.... (Below threshold)

LATIMES link is kaput.

Very conservative predictio... (Below threshold)

Very conservative prediction. We all need to continue to act as though it will be close and make sure we get out and vote and that our family and friends get out and vote. Just like a sporting event you don't think you're winning until the final gun. Play hard until the end.






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