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Ace Draws to an Inside Straight

In his reply to Kevin's earlier post on the Greenwald nontroversy, Ace drove past Kevin's point so fast, he didn't even get the make and model much less a license number. (It's late excuse the metaphors)

First to save you from scrolling, I'll give you the meat of Kevin's remarks:

My best guess is that Greenwald has a Wi-Fi enabled laptop and moves around the country on occasion, and the IP address published (supposedly belonging to Glenn) is actually the one assigned (via DHCP) to the wireless router in the house he stays at in Brazil. As with any setup like that, the same address is shared by all computers behind the router. When the router is rebooted the ISP may (or may not) assign a different IP address to the router for the duration of the session.

Now in my opinion, Kevin might have been guilty of "over explaining it." I'll explain it again below but first I'll give you the meat of Ace's reply. And I'll bold the parts Ace gets incorrect.

Wizbang, there's hardly any need to go speculating about the possibility that Greenwald toted his wireless hither and yon and at various points different people were assigned his IP. This theory requires multiple rabid Glenn Greenwald fans, all living in Brazil, of all places, all frequenting the same conservative blogs Greenwald is known to, all defending Greenwald in much the same languange, and, furthermore, all doing so in perfect, unaccented, idiomatic English, and lastly, all having been just been coindentally assigned the same IP address as Glenn Greenwald during the times and dates he was known to be posting on conservative blogs, coincidentally being assigned the same IP's out of the many thousands of dynamic IP addresses available at any time.

Perhaps you think you're being fair. I hope you take no offense when I say that I think you are merely being idiotic.

Furthermore, not even Glenn Greenwald himself postulates such a fantastical defense; Greenwald's defense is precisely as I knew it would be: he claims that "friends" or "houseguests" or, who knows, hyperintelligent ocicats typed the messages from his home.

If Glenn Greenwald admits the messages originated from his home and his computer, I don't think it's necessary for "technical wizards" like Wizbang to construct statistically impossible series of coincidences that strain common sense, if not the imagination itself.

So: Greenwald admits the "sock puppet" messages originated from within his home. Let us take his admission on that, eh?

OK Let's start with what we know. Someone has been posting under multiple names from the same IP saying the same thing in the same way. Logic says it is the same person. ADDITIONALLY we know that Greenwald has posted as himself from the same IP. (Unless I missed something, that's all we know.)

The answer is obvious. Greenwald has been posting from his partner's house AND his partner is the person defending him. No "statistically impossible series of coincidences that strain common sense" in fact, common sense.

Kids, spouses, lovers and friends have all come to the aid of a blogger they felt was being attacked. That's all we have here.

Now if you'd like the geekyer version read on.

Kevin did one important thing Ace missed. He went back to a previous emails and posts from Greenwald and ran the IPs. They were mailed/posted from Brazil. Now- Unless you believe Greenwald faked these -BEFORE THIS CONTROVERSY- so that Kevin would find them later and defend him, this is pretty much proof positive Greenwald frequents Brazil. (Or He's Karl Rove.) So that part of the story checks.

Further Kevin found they came from multiple ISP's in Brazil. So either 1) he borrowed a few people's computer while there or 2) [and much more likely] he carried a laptop and just hopped on people's networks. (Like I do 10 times per day)

When Greenwald got to his partner's house and posted, he obviously had the same IP as his partner. (Because the router only has one IP and uses NAT. Look it up)

It doesn't matter if the router in the house is DHCP or static, really. It would have the same IP for days or weeks and often repeat. As far as Ace saying, "coincidentally being assigned the same IP's out of the many thousands of dynamic IP addresses available at any time." He simply has no idea how an ISP works. AT BEST the house is probably on a subnet with 254 potential IP's and that is a stretch. I have many customers who are DHCP and they are usually on 1 of 2-3 IP's if I need to log into them. Again, it doesn't matter from a technical point of view but even if it did matter, Ace would be wrong on that one.

Since Greenwald is a lawyer -and we all love Perry Mason- let me put it in these terms:

When Ace and company found multiple names under the same IP they had enough evidence to get a search warrant. When Greenwald produced an alibi they didn't have enough evidence to bring it to trial much less get a conviction. And unless I missed some of their evidence they still don't.

I'm as hardcore right-wing as they come. I just made a post a few minutes ago that all but said Saddam could run as a Democrat in November. But to my conservative cohorts, you're getting into DU territory here. Don't be that guy.

As to you Greenwald, (I know you made it here) I think you're a lying, hypocritical piece of dung. (for your other posts) But I'm intellectually honest enough to call it like it really is. You should try it some time.

Update I don't know Ace's backgroud but it must not be technical. He gets further off base here:

I don't know if the timeline will exactly hang our boy, but it might be harder for him to claim Protective Boyfriends were just stealing the computer between his postings to make quick defensive comments as "Ellison." ...

Partial Timeline, adjusted to Brazil time, which is one hour ahead of current eastern time: Ellison @ Ace of Spades HQ
7/13 10:14 AM Glenn Greenwald @ Patterico's Pontifications
7/13 11:31 AM Same comment spammed to five locations : Glenn Greenwald @ Patterico's Pontifications
7/13 11:39 AM PDT Same comment spammed to five locations

Well, I was wondering why Glenn would give up the computer to his boyfriend during the morning hours, when, presumably, he was working.

I can only assume Ace doesn't know that all the computers in the house will have the same IP number. If Glenn is on one computer (his laptop) and his partner is on the desktop they BOTH post from the same IP. Nobody has to get off the computer to let somenoe else post.

I could be posting on Wizbang at the exact same second my wife is posting on another blog and it would look like I was in two places at once. No magic, just this thing called routers. (you know, those little blue boxes they sell at Walmart for 20 bucks)

In fact it could be argued that the timeline BACKS Glenn's story. Glenn and his partner talk about the blogwars and when Glenn gets on his computer, David (the partner) hops on his computer and defends his partner. Not only plausable but likely.

It is more plasuable that David would get involved when Glenn was in town to talk to him about it. So Ace's point proves nothing and actually feeds a counter-argument.

Comments (13)

As I understand it, the "co... (Below threshold)

As I understand it, the "commenters" used multiple aliases, correct? So your theory would have to conclude that his partner, in fact, did all the "sock puppeting".
Which, I suppose, is possible.

Sorry, I thought that was o... (Below threshold)

Sorry, I thought that was obvious. Yes.

The answer is obvious. G... (Below threshold)

The answer is obvious. Greenwald has been posting from his partner's house AND his partner is the person defending him.

...his Brazilian partner, who doesn't sem to have any previous habit of posting on political boards, who writes very much like Greenwald, in very good colloquial English, at about the same times Greenwald is posting on those boards under his real name.

Or, on the other hand, Greenwald could just be posting as a sock-puppet from his partner's house to feed his own ego.

cirby, to paraphrade Sigmun... (Below threshold)

cirby, to paraphrade Sigmund Freud:

"Sometimes a homosexual Brazilian lover is just a homosexual Brazilian lover."

You over-simplified DHCP. ... (Below threshold)
Steve L.:

You over-simplified DHCP. Depending on the setup of the ISP, you can and frequently do change IP numbers. For example, my home connection is always on (I run software that keeps the connection alive through its actions.) At each renewal point, my ISP changes my address. At any time that I log into my router and renew my IP manually, I will get a different IP number. Almost every single time, it is on a different subnet than the one I was previously on.

In no way does this invalidate any of your conjecture on the Greenwald situation. It is merely a technical critique.

After I typed it I thought ... (Below threshold)

After I typed it I thought to add that cable modems often have a broader range of dynamic IPs to pull from than DSL.

Still, the idea that the Brazillian having the same IP for multiple comments being a statistical impossibility is just silly.

And anyone with a blog knows this.

We can track a commenter by name, email address or IP. If I track someone by email address, it is very rare they post from more than 2 or 3 IPs.

The idea there are just thousands of DHCP addresses waiting to be assigned and you'll never have the same one for any length of time just flies in the face of how it really works in life.

If it mattered to the point... (Below threshold)

If it mattered to the point.... which it doesn't.

Wow. Hard hitting journalis... (Below threshold)

Wow. Hard hitting journalism and such tough talk.


All good points you make. ... (Below threshold)

All good points you make. It seems to me impossible for an outsider to prove one way or another.

But what about one of the commenters talking about an email correspondence with Glenn? It could still be his partner, of course, but that seems rather fishy if Glenn was in Brazil at the time (which I don't know to be the case).

What exactly has has Greenw... (Below threshold)

What exactly has has Greenwald lied about?

I find this video by Congre... (Below threshold)

I find this video by Congresswoman Sherri Davis, R-CA, to be right on point. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lJ1GTXO0U14

>What exactly has has Green... (Below threshold)

>What exactly has has Greenwald lied about?

Either you're joking or clueless. Either way it is waste of my time explaining.

Paul, Kevin,So-- l... (Below threshold)

Paul, Kevin,

So-- let me get this straight.

I write a mean post about Greenwald, Greenwald doesn't respond (despite the fact that he read it, which is known for a fact).

"Ellison" responds instead.

And your conclusion is-- Greenwald somehow, for once, found the self-restraint to avoid responding to an attack, BUT, coincidentally enough, his Brazillian boyfriend (apparently writing English as if he were a native speaker) just happens to have responded on Glenn's behalf.

Weird that Glenn Greenwald didn't respond in that thread himself, huh?



You seem to be willing to conclude all sorts of things on little evidence (apart from Greenwald's say-so) while mocking others for comign to more reasonable, more likely conclusions.






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