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Tomorrow's news, today

Predicting the future is often a fool's game. But sometimes certain patterns emerge, and the first person to spot them and act on them is considered a genius. With that in mind, let me sum up the past, then whip out the crystal ball and prognosticate a little:

1) The intelligence agencies prepare a National Intelligence Estimate on the situation in Iran Iraq.

2) The conclusions are carefully balanced and neutral, giving evidence supporting both the war-supporting side and the war-opposing side.

3) The report is classified by the war-supporting president.

4) The war-opposing side leaks the portions of the summary conclusions that support their side.

5) The president, to counter the charges that he is suppressing the document because it doesn't support his side, releases the entire summary conclusions section.

6) The war-opposing side charges the president with "playing politics" with national security, demands the entire report be declassified.

7) The president, citing concerns that the entire report reveals "sources and methods," the most guarded elements of intelligence (detailing just how we know what we know, who's telling us what, and the capabilities and limitations of our most prized technologies), refuses.


Within the next week or so, key elements of the actual report will be released. These will be the portions that lend weight to the anti-war side. There will be attempts to conceal and/or redact the most sensitive information, but it will be done quite clumsily and reveal far more about our abilities -- and limitations -- than any sane person thinks reasonable.

And, of course, there will be no calls for investigations into who leaked the report from the mainstream media.


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Comments (8)

Iran? Huh?SS... (Below threshold)

Iran? Huh?


And, of course, t... (Below threshold)
And, of course, there will be no calls for investigations into who leaked the report from the mainstream media.

Even for a seasoned cynic, the contrast between the zeal with which the 'Plame' case was investigated / publicized and the utter disinterest in who is leaking classified information is shocking.

Karnac Lives in JT!!... (Below threshold)

Karnac Lives in JT!!

Jay Tea,With psychic... (Below threshold)
Steve L.:

Jay Tea,
With psychic abilities like this, you should head straight for the track.

Say it plain. Enemy agents ... (Below threshold)

Say it plain. Enemy agents within the democratic party already have the entire report (provided to congress in April 06) which means the NYT has a complete copy to cherry pick from until the Nov elections. Every leak of secret National Security Data since 1993 has came directly from the democrats in the United States Congress. But they're patriotic ,yea, like Hee Haw was a broadway show.
No Karnac required. Simple facts of the past show how low the enemy (NYT) and the democrats will sink.

I thought intelligence repo... (Below threshold)

I thought intelligence reports were supposed to be true and factual, not "carefully balanced and neutral".

So where's the senatorial s... (Below threshold)

So where's the senatorial sex scandal? Better give that crystal ball another shake.

...Congressional sex scanda... (Below threshold)

...Congressional sex scandal, I mean; just saw the Foley thing. Too bad, eh?






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