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Barron's: GOP Holds on to Congress

According to Barron's, the GOP is expected to hold onto both houses of Congress come November 7. From the Drudge Report:

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon our hubris, but we just don't see it.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three.


You can read the entire Barron's article if you have a paid subscription, which I do not have.

Update: Oak Leaf at Stop the ACLU has more from the Barron's article, including this:

Is our method reliable? It certainly has been in the past. Using it in the 2002 and 2004 congressional races, we bucked conventional wisdom and correctly predicted GOP gains both years. Look at House races back to 1972 and you'll find the candidate with the most money has won about 93% of the time. And that's closer to 98% in more recent years, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Polls can be far less reliable. Remember, they all but declared John Kerry president on Election Day 2004.

But keep in mind, there's only one way to ensure the result that Barron's is predicting: conservatives must get out and vote for the GOP on November 7th.

Update II: Christine Mohan from Barron's just emailed me with a free link to the article. So click on over and read the entire piece.

Here's a portion that addresses how traders feel about Democrats:

IF WE'RE EVEN HALF right, and the GOP retains control of the Senate but loses the House, then there would be important ramifications for the stock market. Since traders often have disdain for Democrats, there could well be a relief rally, at least in the short term. "It would force investors to rethink some overzealous discounting of stocks," says Chuck Gabriel, chief political analyst for Prudential Equity Group.

Fear of Democrats, he suggests, may be playing a role in the weakness in energy and pharmaceutical stocks, with investors bracing for a populist backlash against profits. "Elections may or may not be a driver, but it would not hurt to remove that headwind," says Gabriel.

Update III: Be sure to check out Lorie's post on the Barron's article at Wizbang Politics.


Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Barron's: GOP Holds on to Congress:

» Doug Ross @ Journal linked with Keith Olbermann's gonna have a revolution

» Drudge Radio Podcast linked with Gleeful Democrats in media think they have this thing won

Comments (30)

I think the antique MSM is ... (Below threshold)

I think the antique MSM is lying. I still can't find that one Republican that is not going to vote republican on Nov 7th.

Here are <a href="http://ww... (Below threshold)

Here are nine of them.

Brian: Here are... (Below threshold)


Here are nine of them.

Maybe they read "What's the Matter With Kansas?"

Maybe "Scrapiron" will -- and then we can call him "Granola."

If that's the "Oak leaf" fr... (Below threshold)

If that's the "Oak leaf" from Polipundit, they can thank themselves if we lose. That site spread more Republican anger than any other on the "Net. I got fed up with them, as did many others.

Brian, those were POLITICIA... (Below threshold)

Brian, those were POLITICIANS who had decided to switch parties, not voters. Scrapiron is right on the money.

Rush asked for these types of callers on his show Friday. he got 1 or 2. I don't call that a large number.

No, Denise, it is not Oak L... (Below threshold)

No, Denise, it is not Oak Leaf. The Polipundit gang is strongly urging a GOP GOTV effort. Try putting some facts into your comments.

Denise, "If that's the "Oak... (Below threshold)

Denise, "If that's the "Oak leaf" from Polipundit, they can thank themselves if we lose."

That site that you are referring to has been working non stop to encourage that the "anger" you are referring to is directed at individual candidates instead of the Republican Party as a whole. It was/is classic anger management.

The blogger "Oak Leaf" has spent probably 99% of his posting time encouraging conservative causes, dismembering the liberal media and encouraging support of Republicans.

If Republicans survive this November, you can thank conservatives like those at Polipundit who helped keep anger focused and under control instead of blowing up in our face.

Last I looked, every conservative issue that they had extreme passion for (Miers, Dubai Ports, Fence) they were on the winning side. That looks like a good barometer to myself.

Do you think we would have had a better chance at winning in November with comprehensive immigration instead of the fence bill that we got? The same with Dubai Ports and Harriet Miers......

I have great praise for the former Polipundit bloggers and they are definately doing their part for November but that has nothing to do with your comments or thesis.

Everytime the MSM trots out... (Below threshold)

Everytime the MSM trots out some supposed republicans who will be voting democrat, newsbusters.org usually finds out they are not really loyal republicans and most voted for Kerry in 2004. If this is all the MSM can find, then so much for the myth of a big GOP abandonment.

And like Scrappy, I don't know one republican who is voting democrat.

I've never seen such "boosting" by the MSM for the dems in my lifetime for this particular election. It's sad it takes that much help to get a democrat elected.

Barron's isn't MSM? Idiots,... (Below threshold)

Barron's isn't MSM? Idiots, of course it is - you just choose which MSM you want to believe, and call the rest liars.

Which means the conservatives here (and elsewhere) are now more than ever lying - but only to themselves. Privately they admit how serious it is, but they turn right around and lie to their constituency -- can't have the real people know how serious it is - let's tell some more lies, and call anyone who doesn't agreed with us liars in return.

Craig told McMorris that Republicans are hurting across the country.

"The new numbers are just devastating," he said.

The American public knows you're lying, and the momentum is building in our favor. The House is a lock for the Dems, and the Senate just inches away.

Who would have known six months ago that things would have changed so dramatically and decisively.

And the Republicans are still lying to the American people. Hmmm, I wonder if there is a correlation.

The poster above has His sm... (Below threshold)

The poster above has His small head up His ass as usual!

There is no lock on the House and neither is the senate "Yours" fool.

Denise, As another commente... (Below threshold)
Stan K.:

Denise, As another commenter said, the people at Polipundit have always worked hard for conservative causes. In fact, they thankfully ran off a bunch of the moderates who used to post there and who were afraid to go against Bush, even when they knew he was wrong (Miers, Ports, immigration).

It's funny, I think some of those moderates now post here.

Polipundit DID hurt Republi... (Below threshold)
Florence Schmieg:

Polipundit DID hurt Republicans. They literally tried to destroy Lorie Byrd because she didn't take their my way or the highway approach to the immigration issue. Same with Harriet Miers, Dubai Ports, etc. etc. So now they want the faithful to vote Republican. I am grateful for that. But they ARE responsible for for a lot of the problems now. That's just the truth.

Barrons is the MSM? LOL. ... (Below threshold)

Barrons is the MSM? LOL. Nice try.

Meanwhile, the MSM has never had to work so hard to help out the democrats. Again, it takes a lot of extra help to get a democrat elected.

Why is that?

Also, I believe Republicans... (Below threshold)
Florence Schmieg:

Also, I believe Republicans will hold both houses. Analysis of the many available polls is not done scientifically by those in the media who jump to conclusions over ambivalent questions like ...would you rather see a D or R control of congress. Or ...are you in favor of the Iraq war (what kind of crazy question is that? Yeah, I favor wars, the more the merrier). 60% of respondents asked, ...do you think YOUR rep is doing a good job? answer yes. That is the only person they can vote for. Also, a 1-6 point lead is essentially a tie. So counting those as a win for the Dems skews all the data. GOTV efforts matter in those races. Rs hold.

Lee, I would think it would... (Below threshold)

Lee, I would think it would be the year for democrats. I mean, geeze, it's Bush's 6th year after all. What took so long?

Just read an Eric Alterman ... (Below threshold)

Just read an Eric Alterman article that shows he's not so confident.

Again, with the difficult Iraq war, with various GOP scandals, with the MSM bending over backwards to help the dems out, why isn't this a sure thing?

That's the real question.

Lee, do you even know what ... (Below threshold)

Lee, do you even know what Barron's is?

Well, I am a lifelong Repub... (Below threshold)
TD Larkin:

Well, I am a lifelong Republican who is going to vote Democrat and my three best friends are in the same boat. So we do exist.

Still, I don't believe the Dems will retake either house because of the power of incubmency. Incumbents are just extremely difficult to beat even in a year like this.

Even so, hanging on to Congress will be something of a pyrrhic victory for the Republicans. If you think people are disgruntled with the Republican Congress and Administration just imagine how made they are going to be next summer when another 1,000 of our heroes have died for nothing in Iraq and the place is still in flames. Just imagine.

"Lee, I would think it w... (Below threshold)

"Lee, I would think it would be the year for democrats. I mean, geeze, it's Bush's 6th year after all. What took so long?"

American believed Bush and the Republicans when they said they were tough on terrorism, and that Iraq was a threat that had to be dealt with. It was just a matter of time before the lies were discovered and reality set in. Now we are seeing an unprecedented surge in favor of the Democrats. What took so long? Americans wanted to believe in you guys, and it took this long for the lies to catch up with you.

"Lee, do you even know what Barron's is?"

For years I was in the habit of reading Barron's every Sunday. It was a weekly ritual back when I was managing my portfolio. Now I have people who do that for me.

Everyone here,Let ... (Below threshold)

Everyone here,

Let me give you one guarantee. Lee will not post anymore at this thread (it has happened at another thread as well, so I am writing from experience).

Each time you want to be done with this joker, propose a serious wager. I will do so again.


I will again wager you. If the Hose goes Democrat in Nov., I will refrain from posting on this site (Wizbang and related Wizbang blogs) for one year. If the House stays Republican, you refrain from posting here for one year. Care to accept the wager?

Wizbang readers -- Lee will not post further on this thread. Check the Sunday postings from last week, where suddenly after the proposition of the same exact wager above, Lee I guess had to go to Sunday service (he disappeared for the whole day)-- I'm serious, check the postings about the congressional races from one week ago and you'll see the proof.

It's also important to not ... (Below threshold)
John S:

It's also important to not do anything to encourage your left-wing friends to vote. Not to dissuade them, that would be stooping to their immoral level, but I certain won't remind any of the moonbats I work with that it's election day. Let their apathy work against them. I'll just slip quietly to the polls after work to vote a straight Republican ticket. And if anyone asks you about the election, be sure to shrug and say it looks bleak for Republicans. We need to feed their overconfidence and let that work against them as well.

I would think it would b... (Below threshold)

I would think it would be the year for democrats. I mean, geeze, it's Bush's 6th year after all. What took so long?"

John Fucking Kerry, that's what.

Worst. Candidate. Ever.

(Ok, not worse than Dukakis, but close)

What you dopes fail to reea... (Below threshold)

What you dopes fail to reealize is it isn't the Republicans who don't vote that are going to influence the election. It's the middle voters who voted Republican the last two elections that are going to determine the outcome. And you aren't going to do well there. My guess, it'll be enough for the House to go D but the morons will retain control of the Senate by one or two seats.

SeamusI did not kn... (Below threshold)


I did not know the demorats controlled the senate?

It's also important to n... (Below threshold)

It's also important to not do anything to encourage your left-wing friends to vote.... I certain won't remind any of the moonbats I work with that it's election day.

Hmmm, interesting. Spoken like a true Republican. As for me, I annually send a non-partisan email to my whole company encouraging them to vote and make their opinions count. I guess we each are representative of our own party's philosophy.

Same day review of the Barr... (Below threshold)

Same day review of the Barron's methodology and analysis by National Review' Online's Ramesh Ponnuru says Barron's has it wrong.

Money and Politics [Ramesh Ponnuru]
Barron's is predicting that Republicans hold both the House and the Senate. They use candidates' fundraising totals to predict outcomes, noting that it usually works and that in years when it hasn't, the economy has been worse than it is now. But how often does this method work in tight races? Their percentages are skewed by the vast number of races in which a not-seriously contested incumbent raises a lot of money.

The piece is a pick-me-up for Tom Reynolds, Rick Santorum, and Mike Sodrel (but not for Chris Chocola or John Hostetler). But I don't think the analysis is very solid.

Damn, that must hurt. National Review Online is highly respected conservative organization - that's a serious black eye!

Very courageous, Lee. A me... (Below threshold)

Very courageous, Lee. A meaningless post just to show you will post? You said in one post (referring to commie Cook) saying it'll be closer to 30 seats that change rather than the needed 15. "Serious black eye"? Words really are cheap.

My children are asking for the Chicken Little game (don't know why as the movie was so bad). Rather, I might show them the poultry here.

I guess the whole Foley thi... (Below threshold)

I guess the whole Foley thing peaked too early.

I don't think we should be ... (Below threshold)

I don't think we should be particularly happy about either party - this has been a particularly do nothing Congress as far as coming up with solutions and doing its job of appropriations. The majority and minority parties are both to blame. I doubt the outcome of this election, whichever way it goes, will improve the situation.

I saw an interesting piece ... (Below threshold)

I saw an interesting piece last week on "The Newshour with Jim Lehrer". It featured Andy Kohut and Tom Mann.

Kohut made an interesting comparison to the 1994 takeover by the Republicans.

I will let you listen for yourself, or you can read the transcript, at http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec06/congress_10-19.html.

My own interpretation is that if the Republicans lose one or both houses it will be due to the disarray within the party, not because the Democrats are organized and have a solid message.

I think this has to do with the Republican strategy of distancing one's self from people who might be a liability in '08, especially if they will be making a run for the presidency.






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