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More On Turnout

From the RNC:


Of the precincts that the RNC is monitoring turnout, we have a ½% turnout advantage over the 2004 turnout (GOP precincts are turning out at 32.9% of 2004 vote while DEM precincts are turning out at 32.5% of 2004 vote)

Many states like Colorado, Nevada, Arizona have 25% of votes cast before election day.


There were 60K more ballots submitted by Republicans before Election Day - and 41% of the state has already voted.

In 2004 Exit Polling was off by 3.5% (they had it at 7%, actual results was 10.5%)


In the precincts that the RNC is tracking turnout, GOP precincts are turning out at 8% higher rate (42% to 34%) from the 2004 vote.


Republicans have a 140K advantage though absentee and early voting before Election Day - and 36% of the state has already voted.

Exit polling got it wrong in 2000 and wrong in 2004 (4% off in 2004)

Keep that in mind when reading the depressing numbers posted by Kathryn Jean Lopez at The Corner.

Update: Jim Geraghty says a "plugged in" Republican is telling him that a 7 point lead in the exit polls is a dead heat.

Update II: Ace says to chill over the exit polls and that there appears to be some trouble with the Virginia exit polls.

Fox News is showing Northrup with a razor thin lead at this time.


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Comments (16)

Source: International Heral... (Below threshold)

Source: International Herald Tribune:

Highlights from national exit poll in U.S. midterm elections

Highlights from preliminary results of a national voter survey conducted for The Associated Press in Tuesday's midterm elections:


A strong majority -- about six in 10 voters -- disapproved of the war in Iraq.

Only a third said the war has improved the long-term security of the United States, down from almost half -- 46 percent -- in the 2004 national exit poll. Some two-thirds said Iraq was very important to their vote, and they strongly favored Democratic House candidates.


Despite the importance of Iraq, even more voters said the economy, government corruption and scandal were very important to their votes. Eight of 10 said the economy was very important; almost as many said corruption and scandals were very important. Terrorism was rated at least as important as Iraq.


Far more voters said national issues mattered more than local issues in their House vote, but there was no difference in how those groups voted in House contests.


Four in 10 voters said they expect life for the next generation to be worse than life today; three in 10 said it would be better.


More than twice as many voters said they felt angry toward President George W. Bush as felt enthusiastic. About four in 10 voters approved of how Bush is handling his job, slightly more than say that about Congress.

KO says its over! Heavy nu... (Below threshold)

KO says its over! Heavy numbers against Bush. Oh well whatever.

We will find out if the ter... (Below threshold)

We will find out if the terrorists win tonight.

We'll find out if the Ameri... (Below threshold)

We'll find out if the American People win tonight.

I'm a Democrat that decided... (Below threshold)

I'm a Democrat that decided to vote Republican.

Yes, if the Republicans kee... (Below threshold)

Yes, if the Republicans keep control, the American people will win.

Lee, Bush is not running in... (Below threshold)
Zelsdorf Ragshaft III:

Lee, Bush is not running in this election. But that is all you have because you have no position on anything productive. I wonder if it is too late to have you aborted.

Lee said, "We'll find out i... (Below threshold)

Lee said, "We'll find out if the American People win tonight"

Since you're a Dem, I assume you mean if the Dems win, the American People win. So does that mean Reps aren't American People?

If the American people win,... (Below threshold)

If the American people win, the terrorists and their liberal supporters will have lost.

When I flipped channels for... (Below threshold)

When I flipped channels for a minute from CNN to MSNBC (during a commercial) I swear that Keith Oberman and Chris Mattews were having an orgasm.

"Chill out" is good advice.... (Below threshold)

"Chill out" is good advice.

The exit poll from CT showed Lieberman winning by only 3%. I'll bet on 10% when the count is done. 7% off may be a good rule of thumb.

Wow - Olbermann just did a ... (Below threshold)

Wow - Olbermann just did a left Herkie, followed by a cartwheel!

Yes Lee, tell us, teach us.... (Below threshold)

Yes Lee, tell us, teach us...if the democrats win, is that what America *really* is all about? And if they don't, are you going to revert to your petulant mocking ways if the American voter doesn't give Nancy Pelosi her spotlight?

Steve - The Republicans nev... (Below threshold)

Steve - The Republicans never represented America -- they represented the evangelical Right, big oil, defense industries, Haliburton, any lobbyist that had a nickel to throw in their direction, and themselves in their "do anything and say anything it takes to get re-elected" quest.

Listen, Steve, America is talking... loudly. Can you hear it?

Give me a break Lee...your ... (Below threshold)

Give me a break Lee...your party, the party of the trial lawyers, unions, big teacher...you *really* want to act all holier than thou?

Yeah, them fucking teachers... (Below threshold)

Yeah, them fucking teachers. All educating our kids and shit. Fuck them. I'll take Haliburton any day. Or Enron. Or Focus on Family. And Jimmy Dobson. And Donald Rumsfeld and Msrk Foley. Thems is some real Americans!






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