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New Hampshire Update: Traders Betting on McCain, Obama

As of Sunday evening (PST) the participants in the Intrade political markets were for the N.H. primary contests betting on the following results:


1. McCain
2. Romney
3. Misc.
4. Huckabee


1. Obama
2. Clinton



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Comments (6)

The predictive value of the... (Below threshold)

The predictive value of these markets is based upon the same principle as the stock market: the collective wisdom of millions of people putting up their own money will generally turn out to be correct in the short term, and almost always correct in the longer term.

For the primaries, though, the volume at InTrade and IEM is very low. The most active contracts have a total volume of under 4000, which is a cumulative total since the contract opened. This has far less value than, say, the price of Wal-Mart stock, which averages over 18 million shares traded every single day.

It appears the political futures markets are closely following the polling. They may end up being right, but not for the reasons upon which the market is based.

Misc? How do you get misce... (Below threshold)

Misc? How do you get miscellaneous presidential candidates in 3rd place? Undecideds? So many options they just can't chose one? Just put Fred in there and be done with it. =p Of course if Huckabee is behind misc. then he's in trouble.

The only problem, Mr. Addis... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

The only problem, Mr. Addison, is that the participants are not using real money. It is still a game and folks tend to do a lot of wishcasting when playing with pretend money. True investors tend to put aside personal preferences when using actual money.

GOP1. Romney 37%</... (Below threshold)


1. Romney 37%

2. McCain 35%

3. Thompson 17%

4. Hucklebee 8%

5. Ron Paul NA / Less then 0.8% odds

Media whores

1. Obama

2. Clinton


1. Obama 44%

2. Edwards 27%

3. Clinton 26%

4. Hugo Chavez/ Amajimmidad 3%

Monday's poll numbers from ... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

Monday's poll numbers from Rasmussen are out and Huckabee is again the national leader. Also, Hillary's huge lead has collapsed in dramatic fashion.

And i dont care for ether o... (Below threshold)
Spurwing Plover:

And i dont care for ether of them






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