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Election Results

Fox News just called New Hampshire for McCain with only 12 percent of precincts reporting. Those exit polls must be pretty definitive.

It appears the Obama-Clinton race is going to be closer than most predicted this week. Obama has been built up so much that even if Hillary loses, she could still be seen as a "comeback kid" if it is close.

Update: You can follow the results here. The RCP blog has some interesting information in their election night thread.

Update 9:00: With 26 percent of precincts reporting Hillary leads Obama 40 - 34 percent. I have to agree with what Ace said:

I think the Old Gal just might win. And that would make it a good night.

Think about it: She might be standing in the way of history, and of hope itself. Not Republicans. But Hillary.

And won't that be special?

Brit Hume said the exit polls showed Hillary a close second finisher and he just asked Michael Barone whether or not, based on the numbers he was seeing, Hillary could still win. Barone said it was possible.

If Hillary does win, my best guess about the discrepancy between the exit polls and actual results would not have anything to do with polling methodology. I think the frenzy that has surrounded Obama in the media the past week would be to blame. Think about it. Would you want to admit to voting for Hillary when you could claim to have voted for the rock star? Then why not go ahead and vote for him in the privacy of the voting booth? I am sure you can imagine lots of reasons for that. Unfortunately, most of us at one time or another have, for one reason or another, voted for someone we would rather not admit to having voted for. This is going to be an interesting night.

Update 9:30: 43 percent of precincts are now reporting and Hillary's lead has shrunk to two percentage points ahead of Obama.

Mary Katharine is blogging from the McCain event. She was at Romney's earlier. She said McCain was subdued. I told her he was making the longest primary speech ever. He probably wasn't, but it seemed that way and when I said that he was not finished yet.

Update (9:40 p.m.):Bill Kristol just said that the late exit polls he just recently saw show a deadheat with Clinton with a slight edge. Hillary is now up three percentage points with 47 percent of precincts reporting. So, now that the late exit polls are showing Hillary winning I guess my theory of people lying to the pollsters is wrong. I think Mary Katharine and Amanda Carpenter might have the answer to the possible Obama loss.

So, what's up with Clinton leading, huh? This election has been nothing if not humbling for pundits. Sounds like grown-up voters came home to Hillary instead of getting caught up in Obama-mania. Or, as my colleague Amanda posits: "All the young people went to the Obama victory party and were too busy drinking to vote. Kinda like a really awesome tailgate where you forget to go to the game." Heh, I know that feeling. Odd that the young people would come out in Iowa, where it's comparatively difficult to vote, and not in New Hampshire.

Update (10:10 p.m.): With 62 percent reporting, Hillary is up by three points.

The guys on Fox News are talking about John Edwards, who evidently is getting ready to speak soon. Juan Williams is talking about how angry he is. Bill Kristol said that based on the exit poll info, it looks like most Edwards voters would go to Obama (that's kinda obvious, isn't it?). I wonder how long Edwards will stick it out. He has practically lived in Iowa and New Hampshire the past four years and is finishing a very distant third tonight. I think that even if he stays in, it won't be long until his voters are going to start moving to one of the candidates that is actually going to win.

Update 10:30: Ha. After being reminded that John Edwards is taking matching funds, Bill Kristol said he should drop out because he is wasting the taxpayers' money. The pundits then talked about Elizabeth Edwards' role in deciding how long he stays in, noting that she is very passionate about politics.

Update 10:34: AP and at least one network have called the race for Hillary. Michael Barone said Fox is not calling for her yet because they are waiting for results from the college towns which could possibly still help Obama squeak out a win.

Update 10:50: Obama is conceding now. So, how did Hillary pull it out? Was it the tears? Was it because so many Independents, who can vote in either party's primary, decided to go with McCain rather than Obama? It would make sense that some thinking Obama had it in the bag, would decide to vote in what appeared to be the closer race. It would also explain the bigger than expected margin for McCain.

Update 11:05: Frank Luntz just said the results he is seeing show that independents that were going to vote for Obama switched late to vote in the Republican primary instead.

Hillary is speaking now. She says she listened to voters and found her own voice.

Here is what I am going to take away from tonight -- never think you have it in the bag when the polls look good and never give up when they look bad. This is going to be one heck of a long 10 months ahead of us.

Update 11:30: John Hawkins asks about John McCain -- This guy? Really?

Sister Toldjah has a really good election roundup and some pretty interesting, and entertaining, comments of her own.


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Comments (12)

Does this finally end the R... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

Does this finally end the Romney campaign? His outlook in SC, Florida and most of the Super Tuesday states is bleak.

From a Romney 's supporter ... (Below threshold)
LoveAmerica ImmigrantL:

From a Romney 's supporter (Hugh Hewitt). Looks like he still has more delegates than McCain even after a 2nd place finish tonight. Even if he continues to be 2nd while the other top-tier candidates trade places for 1st, he still may have more delegates!

It would be an improvement ... (Below threshold)

It would be an improvement for Edwards to drop out, he has always been among the more vapid of candidates. I think I saw a quote from an upcoming book about the 2004 campaign that reveals that John Kerry thought Edwards too phoney.

That was from the Shrum boo... (Below threshold)

That was from the Shrum book.

He is going to stay in a while longer if for no other reason than ego.

Edwards has done nothing bu... (Below threshold)

Edwards has done nothing but run for president for the past four years. He probably doesn't know what he is going to do when he drops out.

if for no other... (Below threshold)
if for no other reason than ego.

That and the hope that maybe this time he can make a decent showing in the state of his birth.

Ha. I don't think he should... (Below threshold)

Ha. I don't think he should count on it.

Frank Luntz has some nerve ... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

Frank Luntz has some nerve showing his face after that stunt he pulled Sunday night with his staged "focus group".

"Was it because so many Ind... (Below threshold)

"Was it because so many Independents, who can vote in either party's primary, decided to go with McCain rather than Obama?" -- L. Byrd

I doubt it. Last count I saw showed a total of about 44 percent of all votes cast (across the board) being for Republicans, 56 percent for Democrats. This can't bode well for Senator Sununu, nor for any Republican presidential nominee in the general election.

She's "found her voice". L... (Below threshold)

She's "found her voice". Lord help us. This dangerous woman is promising a chicken in every pot to get America into the tent of socialism to the droves of ignoramuses who don't know what they don't know about the principles of limited government.

They are clueless to the simple fact that what she promises to give will come attached with shackles and handirons for us and those who come after us.

Mark Levin said it best tonight when he exhorted his listeners to "get up off your asses. We're in a battle! Take them on! Defeat them!!!"

Game on!

Oh I have so much to look f... (Below threshold)

Oh I have so much to look forward to now. My son will get a free college education, our healthcare will be the finest on earth and what's even more important, it'll be guaranteed and FREE, my bank accounts and stock market accounts will now soar to the heavens, who could be unhappy about that(?), that horrible war over there in Iraq will be over, we will become the most admired and beloved nation on earth, everyone else on earth will become our adversaries in every single situation; no more attacks, no more fear, no more terrorism, no more unrest, no more poverty, no more untimely death because of the lack of insurance by those evil insurance companies, no more corporate giants maligning their faithful employees, small businesses will prosper and there will be work for everyone in the nation, no one will ever again be out of work, the unemployment rate will drop to 0, the national deficit will be completely erased, the national debt will go away, the stock market will soar to the heavens, gas prices will drop (immediately) to $1.00 a gallon, oil will drop to $25 a barrel, we won't have to pay taxes anymore, and everyone will be happy and free and will live forever in this wonderful place we call America. What on earth could be wrong with any of this. Don't worry....be Happy

Hillary's emotional scene d... (Below threshold)

Hillary's emotional scene definitely helped her. It made her "look human." She won by 17% among single women and by 11% among married women, losing the male vote to Obama.

Edwards will fight on because Elizabeth wants him to fight on. We haven't been updated on her condition, but her relapse earlier last year and insistence he continue means he is campaigning for her. She is very passionate about politics, even if wrong on virtually every issue.

Sarah K: LOL!






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