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Michigan Analysis

-- Huge win for Romney. For reasons that are beyond obvious. Romney's right back in the game.

-- Very strong showing for McCain. But, still, 2nd place is a country mile from 1st place. The question now is whether this result will kill his prior momentum in South Carolina and Florida. Time will tell.

-- Good showing for Huckabee. For him to have obtained around 15%, in a three-candidate open primary, in a Northern state, is nothing at which to sneeze. Especially given the fact South Carolina -- far more conservative on abortion and other social issues -- is the very next primary. Huckabee still is a major contender.


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Comments (13)

Romney buys himself some br... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

Romney buys himself some breathing room with this win tonight, but McCain and Huckabee find themselves in must-win situations on Saturday. If Huckabee loses, it establishes that he could not win with the electorate stacked in his favor and he is finished. If McCain loses, his momentum is completely lost, he loses Florida and the Super Tuesday states are not at all in his favor. Romney's win tonight keeps him in the game thru at least February 5th.

Thompson at 4 percent? Maybe the general public didn't think as much of his debate performance as the wishcasters.

Yet Again I wonder:<... (Below threshold)

Yet Again I wonder:

As Fred is dead, does that make the Fredheads Deadheads?

Point Number Two:W... (Below threshold)

Point Number Two:

When Thompson withdraws from the race, will he endorse his good buddy, John McCain?

Something to think about, conservatives.

HermanYou failed to ... (Below threshold)

You failed to make Point Number One.

And you're boring everyone.

Fred is a huge factor in So... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:

Fred is a huge factor in South Carolina. There are only so many Christian conservatives in the state and if Fred continues rising, he will take a lot of votes away from Huckabee. I would imagine that McCain would be the beneficiary of such a scenario.

Alan Orfi,As Thomp... (Below threshold)

Alan Orfi,

As Thompson finished in fifth place, behind Ron Paul of all people, in one of our nation's most populous states, are you entirely sure that Fred is indeed "rising"?

Only in the screwy world of... (Below threshold)

Only in the screwy world of politics can one characterize as a 'huge win' a victory in which (as of 10:30 EST) 6 out of every 10 voters in the GOP primary picked someone else. Wouldn't it be just as accurate to say "Michigan GOP voters overwhelmingly prefer someone other than Romney"?

Romney and Thompson in the ... (Below threshold)

Romney and Thompson in the end... and on the other side, Barack and...and? Russ Fiendgold.

Herman,In South Ca... (Below threshold)
Alan Orfi:


In South Carolina, Fred is undeniably rising significantly. No, he will not win the state, nor will he win any states, but he could significantly impact the race by taking votes away from Huckabee who desperately needs to win SC to remain viable.

when did Romney leave the g... (Below threshold)
Dave W:

when did Romney leave the game? He's been winning in delegate count!!!

This conventional wisdom is pissing me off!!

OK.The point is th... (Below threshold)
Dave W:


The point is that MI is the 2nd primary, 3rd state and none of the selections so far have been done by conservatives.

When we get to conservative states and non-open primaries maybe we can talk. Fred is obviously not wasting his money in states like MI where Democrats only had Hill-Dog and uncontested to choose from and they decided to go FUCK with the republicans!

Four candidates spent some ... (Below threshold)

Four candidates spent some time and money in Michigan - Romney, McCain, Huckabee, and Paul. One of them won, and that's Romney.

As to how the results impact South Carolina, Romney will get a bounce, but having pulled staff and ads down here after New Hampshire, he may not have enough to recover very strongly.

The others are hurt somewhat.

Fred got 4% without either ... (Below threshold)
The Listkeeper:

Fred got 4% without either spending money or even setting foot in the state. Paul had to work his ass off and spend his gold for 6%...






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