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Looking Ahead to North Carolina and Oregon

Two of the more interesting primaries remaining on the calendar are that of North Carolina and Oregon. Click the below link for analyses thereof.

North Carolina Democrat Primary

First the obvious points:

White women will vote for Clinton.
Black women will vote for Obama.

White men will split their votes by age and income:
-- The working classes will vote for Clinton.
-- Wealthy leftists and Yuppies will vote for Obama.
-- Males under 25 years of age will vote for Obama.
-- Men over 35 largely will vote for Clinton.

Black men will vote for Obama -- regardless of age, income or social status.


There are not nearly the same percentage of blacks in North Carolina as there are, for example, in Mississippi. Occupationally speaking the Tar Heel State is blue collar.

Overall North Carolina is closer demographically to Tennessee (which Clinton won) than to Mississippi or Virginia (in which Obama prevailed). But North Carolina for Clinton is not nearly as favorable as Ohio and Pennsylvania, both of which have much older populaces and far fewer blacks.

Obama should be favored, but it's going to be a much closer contest than many chattering class types are envisioning. There probably will be no more than a 5-point margin of separation on election day. Don't be shocked if Clinton rides a boost from Pennsylvania to win North Carolina too. Incidentally, if Obama can't win North Carolina then there's a material chance he'll get shut out of the remaining primary contests.

Oregon Democrat Primary

First the obvious points:

Whites will split their votes by gender and age.
Asians will vote for Clinton.
Latinos will vote for Clinton.


Oregon often gets lumped in with Washington State. Oregon is more blue collar, however. It also has more of an independent, almost old-Western streak. Outside of Portland, and the state's various college towns, Oregon voters are far more conservative than the chattering classes might expect.

I would be surprised if Clinton did not prevail in Oregon. Not that I'm predicting an Ohio-style blowout, mind you. I'm envisioning a 2-3 percentage point margin. Unless, of course, Obama's campaign begins to unravel after the upcoming debacle for him in Pennsylvania, in which case it's possible Clinton might win Oregon quite handily.


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Comments (3)

Most of the pundits have Ob... (Below threshold)

Most of the pundits have Obama as the strong favorite in Oregon. While their electorate is indeed closely divided, most of the conservatives are Republicans or independents. I'm not sure of their registration rules, but I believe it is a closed primary (registered Dems only).

If Clinton does win PA, NC, and OR, things could get extremely interesting in that contest. No wonder the Obama people are clamoring for Hillary to get out NOW, before she gets back into a position to really win.

Obama wins both Oregon and ... (Below threshold)

Obama wins both Oregon and North Carolina easily. And if Obama loses PA, it won't be by much.

Get ready for a surprise in... (Below threshold)
Gaias Child:

Get ready for a surprise in Oregon. It's true we are about half red and half blue, half rural, half urban but we are also enjoying the luxury of a sweet and beautiful environment, relatively low on industrial pollution (we have some) and relatively low on any corporate stranglehold over our thinking. We aren't the special interest kind of environment really. We aren't so cynical as where populations and corporate powers are so established. We can still be inspired.







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